624
FXAK69 PAFG 061238
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
438 AM AKDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Less active day on Thursday regarding thunderstorms
but still some instability across the Interior to produce
Isolated to Scattered wet thunderstorms. Friday becoming more
isolated. Much warmer and drier conditions are expected on the
weekend. Gusty winds will pick up in the eastern Alaska Range
north of Trims camp, southerly gusts around 40 to 60 mph through
early Friday morning. The Interior will warm back up into the
70s with drier conditions expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Level Analysis... An upper low will continue to push south
and slightly strengthen, becoming closed off and reaching the
Central parts of the Aleutian Islands early Thursday morning and
remaining quasi-stationary through Friday.  By this point the
southern part of the interior will have shifted to a southerly
flow with a shortwave expected to impact the West Coast late
Thursday night into Friday morning. High pressure will build
over the northern Interior on Saturday, and southeast flow will
return over the southern Interior.


Central and Eastern Interior...
Less active day on Thursday regarding thunderstorms
but still some instability across the Interior to produce
Isolated to Scattered wet thunderstorms. Friday becoming more
isolated. Much warmer and drier conditions are expected on the
weekend. Gusty winds will pick up in the eastern Alaska Range
north of Trims camp, southerly gusts around 40 to 60 mph through
early Friday morning. Temperatures in the 60s and 70s
today will cool into the lower 60s to lower 70s Thu and Fri.
Warming back up into the 70s for the Interior over the weekend
and drier conditions expected.

West Coast and Western Interior... A shortwave over the
Western Interior will move continue to produce numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms, specifically from Galena south and
west with areas of rain, potentially heavy at times. Then by
Friday, it looks to dry out with the exception of a few showers
and an isolated storm towards Ambler. Showers return to the Yukon
Delta by Saturday morning.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Once again, fog and low stratus will remain as general onshore
flow continues through the period from the sea ice, which will
keep temps lowered to near their dewpoints. High temperatures will
range from the 30s and 40s along the coast and reaching into the
60s in the Brooks Range. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible for the central and eastern Brooks Range through
Thursday. Friday will be more benign with isolated showers in the
west as the shortwave drifts northwestward away from the region.
SW flow begins on Friday, which will work to erode cloud cover
near North Slope coastal areas, which will allow temperatures to
rise well into the 40s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For the Interior, RH is slightly higher than yesterday, and will
remain above 25% through Fri. Temperatures in the 60s and 70s
today will cool into the lower 60s to lower 70s Thu and remain
cool into Fri. Less active day on Thursday regarding thunderstorms
but still some instability across the Interior to produce
Isolated to Scattered wet thunderstorms. Friday becoming more
isolated. Much warmer and drier conditions are expected on the
weekend. Near red flag conditions possible over the weekend.

The western interior will see daily afternoon thunderstorms for
the next couple of days. These storms could bring around half
an inch of rainfall with the heaviest and most persistent of
storms. Late this evening into Thursday, the shortwave over the
Central Interior will move over the West Coast and Western
Interior, specifically from Galena south and west with areas of
rain, potentially heavy at times. Some weaker shortwave troughs
will follow that, giving a progressively diminishing trend in
intensity and coverage of the showers and thunderstorms. Then by
Friday, it looks to dry out with the exception of a few showers
and an isolated thunderstorm towards Ambler.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recently received snowfall present in the Brooks Range / North Slope
area along with warming temperatures will promote snowmelt,
giving the potential for high water for the Colville, Sag, and
Kuparuk rivers and their tributaries. There are some ice jams
present on the Colville, which will enhance any flooding threat.
Water levels are expected to crest by the end of this week into
the weekend. The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding
very slowly. Satellites and ground observations continue to
indicate plenty of snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As
temperatures continue to warm over the next few days, snowmelt
could lead to continued high water for streams in that area.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$