344
FXAK67 PAJK 301318
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
518 AM AKDT Thu May 30 2024

.SHORT TERM...A weak frontal band will push through the panhandle
through the day on Thursday, bringing with it chances of rain
showers. Between the showers, expect quite a few breaks in the
clouds, especially during the morning hours and particularly
across the northern half of the panhandle. Cloud cover will begin
to build in during the latter half of the day across the area as a
strong gale force front begins approaching from the S.

Satellite imagery currently depicts a weakening and disorganized
front attempting to move N through the southern panhandle as of
the time of writing. Actual thermal advection with this front is
proving minimal, and between this and a distinct lack of upper
level support, do not think that the front will bring much more
than enhanced chances of showers and perhaps some elevated winds
for a few locations as it attempts to head northward. What`s left
of the system will likely reach the Icy Strait Corridor during
the afternoon or evening hours before falling apart entirely as it
tries to traverse further northward.

A far stronger system is approaching from the S. A low developing
along a strengthening negatively trough will send a well-organized
front racing towards the panhandle. By Thursday night, chances of
rain and wind will be increasing for the southern panhandle.
Anticipate gale force winds for the outer coastal waters and small
craft conditions for some of the inner channels, along with
elevated winds developing across many land-based locations from S
to N. For additional details, see the long range forecast
discussion.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/...
Overview: Active weather pattern for the end of the week and into
the mid range as upper levels lows keep a series of surface lows and
fronts tracking into the region. Gale force fronts for Friday
likely, Sunday possible. Moderate to heavy rain fall mainly over
the southern Panhandle Friday, Sunday, and potential on Tuesday into
Wednesday.

Eastern Gulf front moves in early Friday with at least gale force
winds developing. For inner channels southerly winds highest over
Clarence Strait, 25 kts, then dropping into the 15 to 20 kt range
progressing northward, then down to 10 to 15 kts north of Icy
Strait. More steady and persistent rain begins as the front moves
inland along with higher QPF amounts, especially over the south.
Amounts upwards of 1 to 1.5 inches. New guidance keeps northern half
of the region with lower chances for rainfall due to the front
shearing apart and initial offshore flow. Another surface low
rotates around the previous low into the SE Gulf expanding by
Sunday. Potential for gales along this front over the SE Gulf along
with more moderate to heavy rain to the south with rain totals
nearing 1 inch. Similar trend with most precip to the south and
offshore flow and position of the front having the north with lower
chances of rain. Watching next weeks systems, especially Tuesday
into Wednesday where moisture flow may be far enough north to hit
the points over the southern regions with 1 to upward of 2 inches of
rain. Early on still minor spread between operational GFS/NAM and
ECMWF/Canadian but overall similar synoptic pattern. Ensembles
continue to put the broad 500 mb low over the gulf into next week
keeping the active pattern in place.

&&

.AVIATION...

A weak front over the area in tandem with a building low in the
Gulf of Alaska will keep intermittent rain across the southern
panhandle through the TAF period. For southern panhandle TAF
sites, expect low-end VFR to upper MVFR flight conditions with
CIGs between 2500 and 5000 ft. For central northern TAF sites,
expect primarily VFR flight conditions under BKN to OVC skies
between with low-end precip chances. Widespread sustained winds
should remain less than 15kts with potential for a sporadic gust
up to 25kts for northern panhandle TAF sites. Brief lull in winds
and precip overnight into Friday before another front approaches
the coastal panhandle late in the TAF period.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ662>664-671.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-035-036-641>644-652-661-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...NM

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