698
FXAK67 PAJK 142245
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
245 PM AKDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.SHORT TERM...Progressive gale force system Saturday night into
Sunday for the panhandle.

The situation will begin to rapidly change through Saturday
night, as a gale force system advances into the Gulf and
approaches the panhandle. Winds will begin to increase across the
area, with precip chances increasing across coastal communities -
and to a lesser extent the northern half of the panhandle, by late
Saturday night. Sunday will see small craft conditions across
many of the inner channels, with elevated winds across land-based
locations and widespread rain reaching across SE AK as the system
fully moves into the panhandle.

Primary changes to the forecast include speeding up the arrival
time of the heaviest rainfall. Latest satellite imagery indicate
the front is more progressive than earlier indications, therefore
made adjustments to compensate. Furthermore, increased QPF along
the front as latest ensemble guidance indicate additional
available moisture. Most communities will see heavy precipitation
at times along the front.

.LONG TERM...An active pattern will continue across the panhandle
through next week. To start off, a weakening front will move over
the panhandle Monday morning before a low affects the southern
panhandle Monday night into Tuesday morning. This low will start to
move across the far southern panhandle Monday evening brining
precipitation and increasing winds. Winds are expected to be around
15 kts on land and in the inner channels, and be around 25 kts
along the coast. Confidence is high on the timing of this low as
it tracks across the panhandle, but confidence is low on the
location of this low. Guidance has a range of locations, some
bringing the low directly over the southern panhandle, and some
tracking the low south of the panhandle. The location of the low
will determine where the strongest winds and heaviest rain occurs.


A short break is then expected as another low makes its way into
the northern gulf Wednesday morning. There will be both wind and
rain, but no impressive values are expected. The largest impact
seems to be the chance of strong breezes along the gulf coast and
northern inner channels.

Ultimately, what is currently on the radar as the next impactful
rain event could possibly be next weekend. There are early
indications of a long duration rain event. At this time, there is
40 to 60 percent chance of IVT values exceeding 250 kg/m/s for
three days. Confidence in the details will improve with follow on
model runs as the event draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION...Fine flying conditions across Southeast Alaska this
afternoon and evening before the next front arrives. As the front
approaches, conditions deteriorating to 1000/3 or less through
Sunday from north/west to the south/east due to precipitation and
lower ceilings. Before the precip arrives, am expecting Petersburg
CIG/VSBY to crash hard tonight, so there`s fog in that TAF.
Mechanical turbulence and LLWS also becoming an issue by the early
morning on the northeast Gulf Coast, spreading southeast through
the afternoon and then improving.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>034-036-053-641>644-
     651-661>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...Fritsch

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