442
FXAK67 PAJK 052305
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
305 PM AKDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday night/ Another active day as the
strong low from yesterday has moved farther north through the
gulf. Gusty and wet conditions are the main rule of the day for
most areas. Gusts have been as high as 42 mph at Juneau today, and
small craft winds of 25 kt have been wide spread over the central
and northern inner channels. Rain has also been mostly constant,
but light for the most part.

Generally the short range forecast is mainly for improving
conditions over the next 36 hours as the low in the gulf gradually
weakens and moves away to the NW and ridging builds over the
panhandle. The winds will drop off first with most areas dropping
below 20 kt by late tonight. Northerly Lynn and Skagway will hang
on to the winds a bit longer into Thursday morning. The rain will
take a little longer to leave the area, but will be diminishing
from SE to NW through Thursday night with some breaks developing
in the cloud cover as well. With the breaks in the clouds some
patchy fog is not out of the question for various areas of the
panhandle late Thursday night.


.LONG TERM.../ Friday through Monday / Dry to start as ridge moves
through the area with a large low moving north into the Gulf of
Alaska. The associated front lifts into eastern gulf and towards the
panhandle Saturday followed by a quick ridge and what looks like a
secondary development on several solutions lifting another short
wave north and this one is presently tracking into the panhandle
instead of past it. A push of warmer air will track into the
panhandle as 850 mb temps finally getting into the positives with
temps of 6 to 10 C by Saturday.

The biggest change was the adjustment of late Sunday to Monday to
account for the secondary wave moving north and into the panhandle.
Have added it in, however, will need to watch for the QPF and Winds.
Did bump winds up but not more than Small craft outside. This may be
needed to updated to higher values if it maintains in place and
strengthens.

&&

.AVIATION...Rain shower intensity and higher winds diminish as
current front slowly exits the area. The 30 to 40 kt gusts with
some LLWS drop off by the early evening. Ceilings have been
between 2000 and 5000 kt and visibility between 3 to 6SM with
more variability due to the northerly shower progression.
Overnight winds drop to less than 10kt and remain there for about
the next 48 hours. Cloud cover overnight likely to drop to 1500
ft at times but expecting more break and decks to lift into the
morning hours. Favorable flying conditions last into the weekend.


&&

.MARINE...Active marine weather today with wide spread small craft
winds to 25 kt across the central and northern inner channels and
nearshore waters of the NE gulf. There is also a brief area of
min gale force expected this evening near Cape Fairweather. Seas
are also elevated in the gulf with 10 to 12 ft seas reported in
by the eastern gulf buoys today. All of these conditions should be
improving through tonight and tomorrow with most areas below small
craft conditions for both seas and wind by Thursday morning. Winds
and seas are then expected to stay low into Friday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ325.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>034-036-641>644-
     651-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...Fritsch

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