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FXAK67 PAJK 242210
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
210 PM AKDT Fri May 24 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday night/...The short term forecast
unfortunately remains on track for a mostly wet and cloudy
Memorial Day weekend. The southern Panhandle is also still on
track to receive the most rain with a little one than 1 inch
between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. Well to the north,
the far northern inner channels and the northeast Gulf Coast are
the locations with the best chance of seeing at least some dry
weather. With the cloud cover, daytime highs on Saturday still
looking like they will top out in the low to mid 50s. Possible
exception may be Hyder in Misty Fjords, which may see the low 60s.

Impactful winds on the inside limited to Clarence Strait, where
southeasterly 25 kts beginning Saturday afternoon. Elsewhere, 15
to 20 kts or less with seas 3 to 4 ft maximum. On the outside,
small craft pre-frontal southeasterlies 25 to 30 kts from Cape
Spencer beginning tonight and lasting through Saturday afternoon.


.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/...Similar lines of
thinking compared to yesterday`s forecast. Only change is the
reduced chance that any wave moving up the coast will cause 25-30
knot winds. Otherwise, still looking at a rainy and cool holiday
weekend.

This Memorial Day Weekend is marked by a stacked low in the Alaskan
Gulf slowly filling and drifting south. From this system, constant
onshore flow from the south will move into the panhandle, generating
rain, cooler temperatures, and breezy marine conditions. The
southern panhandle looks to be hit the hardest relatively, with
steady light rain for the entire weekend. The northern half of the
panhandle has the highest likelihood of seeing periods of no rain,
with increased chances the further north one is. However, these
areas will not be able to escape the clouds as the entire AOR looks
to be overcast with not a hint of sun, except for the extreme
northern panhandle. Southerly winds over marine look to max out at
20 knot sustained winds, mainly focused on the southern panhandle
and outer coast throughout the weekend.

One note of uncertainty in the forecast is the potential for quick
moving systems tracking from the south along the gulf coast.
Ensemble and deterministic models are having trouble determining
when and how strong these mesoscale features will be. If they do
develop, the predominantly southerly flow in the inner channels will
likely take an increasingly easterly component as they traverse
northward. Areas such as Frederick Sound, Sumner Strait, Icy Strait,
Cross Sound, and Peril Strait to name a few could see increased wind
speeds, possibly up to 20 knots.

Looking further into next week, the unsettled weather trend looks to
continue. Ensemble models, particularly the EPS & GEFS, seem to be
split on the idea of another possibly impactful front moving into
the panhandle late in the week. On the one hand, there is some upper
level support to believe this line of thinking; however, this front
also faces what looks like a broad surface ridge on the onset. While
the panhandle may receive rain, confidence is low regarding whether
a front will impact the panhandle or stay offshore.

&&

.AVIATION.../VFR conditions across Southeast Alaska will steadily
deteriorate overnight with significant portions of the Panhandle
and northeast Gulf Coast below 1000/3 by Saturday morning. Some
turbulence over the southern half of the panhandle below ridge
tops by Saturday afternoon, but does not look like it will be
strong enough to warrant any LLWS

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-652-661-662-664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fritsch
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...Fritsch

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