043
FXAK67 PAJK 241303
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
503 AM AKDT Fri May 24 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/The rain from yesterday has
largely ended this morning, though some rain showers are still
present across the central panhandle and outer coast this morning.
Rainfall amounts over the last 24 hours have ranged mostly from
around a quarter to 0.8 inches though some isolated areas around
Juneau did see over an inch in the same time period due to terrain
effects. Lots of clouds cover is still present across the
panhandle this morning as well, though some breaks are showing up
here and there (Kuiu Island, and northern Chichagof Island). Fog
is developing in these clear breaks, but it is not dense or wide
spread currently.

The clouds and remaining showers are expected to diminish through
the day as weak ridging builds in. The process will be slow as
overall flow remains onshore and some areas may not see the clouds
diminish at all. Inner channel winds are mostly low with some
areas of 15 to 20 kt observed (northern Lynn, Cape Decision area,
and Young Bay) and generally westerly to northwesterly (Lynn Canal
is the exception with southerly winds). These winds should
diminish through the day.

Into tonight, overall flow turns more southerly as the next system
moves in. Cloud cover will be increasing again, and rain will
begin to approach the outer coast around midnight with most of the
panhandle expected to see some rain by Saturday morning. Not much
wind with this system with most of it confined to the gulf
waters. Highest winds will be in the northern gulf near Cape
Suckling late tonight with 25 kt easterlies forecast.


.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Memorial Day/...This Memorial Day
Weekend is marked by a stacked low in the Alaskan Gulf slowly
filling and drifting south. From this system, constant onshore
flow from the south to southwest will move into the panhandle,
generating rain, cooler temperatures, and breezy marine
conditions. The southern panhandle looks to be hit the hardest
relatively, with steady light rain for the entire weekend. The
northern half of the panhandle has the highest likelihood of
seeing periods of no rain, with increased chances the further
north one is. However, these areas will not be able to escape the
clouds as the entire AOR looks to be overcast with not a hint of
sun, except for the extreme northern panhandle. Southerly winds
over marine look to max out at 20 knot sustained winds, mainly
focused on the southern panhandle and outer coast throughout the
weekend.

One note of uncertainty in the forecast is the potential for quick
moving systems tracking from the south along the gulf coast. Ensemble
and deterministic models are having trouble determining when,
where, and how strong these mesoscale features will be. If they do
develop, the predominantly southerly flow in the inner channels
will likely take an increasingly easterly component as they
traverse northward. Areas such as Frederick Sound, Sumner Strait,
Icy Strait, Cross Sound, and Peril Strait to name a few could see
increased wind speeds, possibly up to 25-30 knots.

&&

.AVIATION...Predominantly MVFR conditions this morning due to a
lingering cloud deck between 2000 and 3000 ft over the panhandle,
with patchy fog in areas that did manage to break out. Any fog
that does develop will be short-lived as clouds are set to thin
out during the day Friday. Friday night the next system is set to
bring back low clouds and rain, along with breezy conditions to
the outer coast. No significant LLWS expected during next 24 hrs.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661>663-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...STJ

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