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FXAK67 PAJK 151749
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
949 AM AKDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.UPDATE...18z Aviation Update

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Key Points:
- A ridge over the gulf is allowing for dry conditions to continue
  with partly cloudy skies.
- High temperatures in the mid to high 60s expected this week.
- Winds remain light in many areas with the exception of afternoon
  sea breezes.

Details: Very few changes were made to the forecast for Tuesday. The
developing ridge continues to bring northwesterly winds and drier
conditions across the panhandle. Partly cloudy to clear skies will
allow for temperatures to increase to mid to high 60s throughout
the day. Multiple areas will even see temperatures into the low
70s. Increasing day time temperatures will allow for sea breezes
to form increasing winds for some land areas. Skagway will
experience the largest affect from sea breezes with winds
increasing to 10 to 15 kts in the afternoon.

Currently, as the ridge continues to move closer to the eastern gulf
coast, the pressure gradient has strengthened over N Lynn Canal
increasing winds from Eldred Rock to Taiya Inlet to 15 to 20 kts
early this morning. This gradient is expected to become more west to
east oriented, allowing for winds across N Lynn to slightly decrease
this morning. That being said, sea breezes are still expected to
develop this afternoon.

.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday through Friday / The ridge over the gulf
Wednesday will flatten slightly leading to a more zonal like flow
across the southern gulf the British Columbia by Friday. A weak
trough spreads some light rain into the Northeast gulf coast
Wednesday to early Thursday. The zonal flow may not run across the
southern panhandle Friday and Saturday and Sunday /positions is
variable in the models/, but any shortwaves could potentially clip
the area with precipitation, Friday or Saturday. Short waves are
small, would be fairly quick moving so isolating them may be
issued.

Wednesday should fairly sunny for the inner channels but will be
needing to watch the Marine layer out over the gulf that is pushing
to the coast, and likely trying to spread into the panhandle over
the later part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 10 am most fog has lifted or at the very least
retreated offshore for TAF sites across the panhandle. The Outer
Coast and western Icy Strait is also dealing with some clouds from
Baranof Island northward partly from marine layer low clouds and
partly from some mid level clouds from a weak disturbance over the
NE gulf coast. MVFR to VFR ceiling here with the lowest being
1500 ft at Gustavus. These lower clouds should diminish from north
to south through the morning with VFR conditions expected for the
rest of the day across the panhandle. The marine layer clouds
should return for the outer coast Tuesday night again possibly
reaching Gustavus again in Icy Strait. As for fog, lower
possibility of it tonight as another day of warmer weather drys
out the lower atmosphere, but best chance is still around
Petersburg and Wrangell again though any that does form should not
stick around as long. Winds remain low for most areas though sea
breeze circulations may produce winds up to 20 kt in some areas
particularly Skagway.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside: As the ridge continues to tighten this morning,
northwesterly winds along the central to southern coast will
increase to NW moderate to strong breezes of 20 to 25 kts. Along
with strong breezes, times of near gale to gale force wind gusts
have a chance of occurring Tuesday evening and night near the
southern coast. Wave heights build to 6 to 8 ft, with the largest
seas west of Prince of Wales Island and near Dixon Entrance. These
increased winds and waves are expected into Wednesday before the
ridge begins to slightly weaken.

Inside: Mainly light to gentle breezes of 5 to 10 kts persist across
the inner channels. An exception to these lighter winds will be
areas that normally experience sea breezes. Specifically, Cross
Sound, Icy Strait, and Lynn Canal will see increases in winds
Tuesday afternoon. The sea breeze will allow winds to increase to 15
to 20 kts along these areas. Along Clarence Strait, Northwest
winds will increase to 15 to 20 kts through the period with the
tightening ridge. These winds across Clarence Strait will remain
elevated through Wednesday, beginning to diminish wednesday
evening.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...EAB

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