711
FXAK67 PAJK 281315
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
515 AM AKDT Tue May 28 2024

.SHORT TERM...

Conditions will continue to steadily improve across the panhandle
through Tuesday, paving the way for a mostly dry Wednesday and
Thursday across the area, though a few showers may linger.

Radar and satellite imagery indicate the continued presence of an
occluding low over the SE Gulf as of the time of writing. Waves
have continued to spin up around the low and move into the
panhandle, but the lack of significant thermal gradients have
prevented most of them from undergoing significant cyclogenesis,
and anticipate this trend to continue through Tuesday. Although
bands of rain showers will continue to move through the area -
especially the S panhandle, expect shower coverage to be on a
diminishing trend through the day as the primary low increasingly
loses cohesion.

By late Tuesday afternoon, chances of showers will have largely
departed from the northern half of the area, though some
occasional bursts of precip cannot be ruled out. This trend will
continue through Tuesday night as the low finally disintegrates
into an open short-wave trough as it drifts N towards the vicinity
of Sitka. Only minimal changes were made to the forecast -
primarily minor adjustments to temperature and some changes made
to sky cover, wind speed and wind direction.

.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday through Saturday/

Guidance is continuing to lean more and more towards a break in
precipitation on Wednesday with a weak surface ridge building in
over the panhandle. While this will lead to a shift to onshore
flow, being on the northern downstream side of the ridge should
mean any precipitation that does develop due to orographic effects
along the coast should be minimal and any showers should be light
and short lived. For Thursday however, a short wave trough will
enhance the chance of showers making their way to the inside
waters.

After this short period of relatively drier weather, model
guidance continues to converge on a well established front pushing
across the Alaskan Gulf and impacting SE AK later on Friday. With
the advancing front, winds in the Gulf will likely switch to be
more out of the SE by Thursday morning. While exact timing remains
uncertain, ensemble means are trending toward winds of around 30
to 35 kt likely along the outer coast ahead of the front Friday
afternoon. Depending upon the orientation of the boundary, this
will lead to small craft conditions for parts of the inner
channels as the front begins to push inland, with the duration
impacted by the momentum of the front. The northward momentum of
the front will also depend on the overall strength and positioning
of the parent low feature in the northwestern Gulf, which
continues to fluctuate with consecutive model runs. Overall expect
a wet and breezy end to the week for the panhandle, with rain
continuing at least through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected for inland TAF sites under BKN/OVC mid to
upper level cloud deck. Intermittent MVFR CIGS between 2000 to
5000 ft and isolated rain showers along coastal and southern TAF
sites. Strongest sustained winds expected between 5 to 15kts.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...NM

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