158
FXUS61 KAKQ 221853
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
253 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain situated off the Southeast coast
through the end of the week. A cold front approaches from the
northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms to end the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key message:

- Isolated thunderstorms possible across the Piedmont through
  the evening.

High pressure is situated off the Southeast coast this
afternoon allowing for warm temperatures under a mostly sunny
sky. A lee trough is noticeable in the pressure field just to
the west of our FA with a few thunderstorms beginning to fire
over the mountains. Will have a 20-30% PoP over our NW counties
through the early evening hours as there will be the potential
of a storm or two to sneak into the Piedmont. Otherwise, mild
tonight under a partly to mostly clear sky. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Summerlike and more humid Thursday with temperatures close to
  90 each day.

- Chances for thunderstorms later Thursday into Thursday
  evening. A few of these storms may be strong to severe.

An upper trough and cold front approach from the NW on Thursday.
850mb temperatures will still be ~16C supporting highs once
again in the mid 80s to near 90F, and lower to mid 80s along the
coast with a SSW wind. The upper trough and cold front will
provide a trigger for showers/tstms in a moderately unstable
airmass with strong surface heating and dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s. This combined with 500mb flow of 30-40kt could result
in a few stronger to severe tstms. SPC has maintained a marginal
risk for our area. However, some of the CAMs are looking more
robust with respect to thunderstorm coverage/intensity late
Thursday, especially along and south of the VA Hwy 460 corridor.
Primary threats will be localized damaging wind gusts and hail.
Showers/tstms diminish in coverage Thursday night with low
temperatures ranging through the 60s. The front stalls in
vicinity of the area Friday. However, 12z/22 model guidance has
continued to trend downward with shower/tstm chances. Forecast
PoPs range from 20-30% E to 30-40% W Friday afternoon. Continued
warm and moderately humid Friday with highs in the lower to mid
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Remaining somewhat unsettled through the weekend with chances
  for mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

The lingering frontal boundary stalls over the region over the
weekend and into Memorial Day and through Tuesday as well. In
addition, westerly mid and upper level flow will allow for a
series of shortwaves to move across the region. Confidence on
timing is very low, so the forecast will continue with daily
chances of mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms. High
temperatures will mainly be in the 80s with low temperatures in
the 60s through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure is just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast as of
17z. VFR under a mostly clear sky with a calm to light SSW wind
for most sites this afternoon. Should see an increase in CU
across the Piedmont by late afternoon and an isold -TSRA cannot
be ruled out NNW of KRIC between 21Z-03Z. Partly cloudy to
mostly clear and VFR tonight with a light S wind.

A cold front approaches the area Thursday bringing with it a
chance for showers/tstms along with possible flight
restrictions. The front looks to stall in the vicinity of the
region Friday-Sunday, bringing daily chances for mainly
afternoon/evening showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Low rip current risk will prevail for today and Thursday at
  all beaches.

- Shower and storm chances return beginning Thursday.

Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered along the NC
coast. Winds were SSW 5-10kt across the waters. Waves were 1-2
ft and seas were 2-4 ft.

High pressure will shift farther out to sea today, as a frontal
boundary starts to approach from the NW. Expect SSE winds 5-15
kt with gusts up to 20 kt this aftn into this evening, then
winds will become SSW 5-15kt for later this evening into Thu
morning. Shower and storm chances will increase on Thu, with
the front`s approach, and are forecast to persist each day into
early next week, as the front stalls out across the region.
Expect the best rain chances to be likely in the aftn/evening
hours. Currently not anticipating any wind issues with the
frontal passage itself, though strong erratic gusts will be
possible with any stronger tstm during this period. Sub-SCA
conditions will prevail otherwise. Seas are forecast to remain
2-3 ft with waves 1-2 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday...

Another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected to
occur later tonight into Thu morning, particularly for the
middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock
River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac, due to the higher
astronomical high tides remaining elevated.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ/JDM
AVIATION...AJZ/JDM
MARINE...JKP/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ