Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
090 FXUS61 KAKQ 230557 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 157 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain situated off the Southeast coast through the end of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to end the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 815 PM EDT Wednesday... Key message: - A slight chance for a shower across the far N/NW. High pressure is situated well off the southeast coast this evening, with low pressure across the Great Lakes, and a weak lee trough still noticeable in the pressure field just to the west of our FA. Aloft, the flow is from the W, around a flat ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico ENE to a position off the Carolina coast. It remains quite warm, with temperatures still mostly in the upper 70s/lower 80s W of the Bay, with upper 60s to mid 70s on the eastern shore. With the loss of daytime heating, and the main upper trough still off to the W, the convection that developed across the Appalachians has weakened/diminished by the time it reached into far western sections of the CWA. With little to no instability to the E, it appears that showers and any embedded storms will struggle to hold together overnight locally. Some of the CAMs suggest an isolated shower will still be possible over the far N/NW overnight so will keep a slight chc mention (15-20%) PoP there, but 10% or less elsewhere. Variably cloudy overnight and rather warm with lows in the mid to upper 60s for most areas. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Summerlike and more humid Thursday with high temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90F. - Chances for thunderstorms later Thursday into Thursday evening. A few of these storms may be strong to severe. An upper trough and cold front approach from the NW on Thursday. 850mb temperatures will still be ~16C supporting highs once again in the mid 80s to near 90F, (lower to mid 80s over the far NW and the eastern shore). The upper trough and cold front will provide a trigger for showers/tstms in a moderately unstable airmass with strong surface heating and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. This combined with 500mb flow of 30-40kt could result in a few stronger to severe tstms. SPC has maintained a marginal risk for our area. However, some of the CAMs are looking more robust with respect to thunderstorm coverage/intensity late Thursday, especially along and south of the VA Hwy 460 corridor. Primary threats will be localized damaging wind gusts and hail. Showers/tstms diminish in coverage Thursday night with low temperatures ranging through the 60s. The front stalls in vicinity of the area Friday. However, 12z/22 model guidance has continued to trend downward with shower/tstm chances. Forecast PoPs range from 20-30% E to 30-40% W Friday afternoon. Continued warm and moderately humid Friday with highs in the lower to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Remaining warm, and somewhat unsettled through the weekend with chances for mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. The lingering frontal boundary stalls over the region over the weekend and into Memorial Day and through Tuesday as well. In addition, westerly mid and upper level flow will allow for a series of shortwaves to move across the region. Confidence on timing is very low, so the forecast will continue with daily chances of mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms. High temperatures will mainly be in the 80s with low temperatures in the 60s through the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 155 AM EDT Thursday... High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast as of 06z. VFR under a mostly clear sky with a light SSW wind of 5-10kt. A cold front approaches from the W today bringing a chc of showers/tstms, primarily during the mid-late aftn and evening timeframe. Primarily VFR through this evening, with the exception of brief flight restrictions (mainly vsby) in showers/tstms. The wind will be SW 8-12kt today outside of tstms, with locally strong to severe wind gusts possible from tstms. There is still enough uncertainty in timing, so VCTS wording has been maintained. The front stalls in the vicinity of the region Friday-Monday, bringing daily chances for mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms. Chances for showers/tstms are mainly 15-20% NE to 30-40% SW Friday, 30-40% across the area Saturday, and 15% or less NE to 20-30% SW Sunday. There is the potential for more coverage of showers/tstms Monday as an upper trough approaches from the NW. && .MARINE... As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Benign conditions expected on the waters through the Holiday weekend. - Shower and storm chances return Thursday afternoon and are possible again over the holiday weekend. High pressure is slowly shifting farther out to sea this afternoon, as a storm system, located over the Great Lakes, and a cold front, that stretches across the Ohio Valley, starts to approach from the NW. Expect SSE winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this evening to become SSW 5-15kt overnight tonight into Thu morning. Shower and storm chances will increase on Thursday afternoon and evening hours, with the front`s approach. But the front will be weakening as it arrives and stall across the region. It will then waffle back and forth across the area through the Holiday weekend. While this will keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend into early next week, the winds and seas will remain below sca levels through the weekend. Overall expect winds below 10 kts and seas 2 - 3 ft over the ocean and 1 - 2 ft in the Bay and area rivers. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday... Another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected to occur later tonight into Thu morning, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac, due to the higher astronomical high tides remaining elevated. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB SHORT TERM...AJZ/JDM LONG TERM...AJZ/JDM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...ESS/TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ