525
FXUS61 KAKQ 182005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
405 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dreary conditions across the area today with the
potential for a few thunderstorms in NC. The widespread rain
will shift south tonight into Sunday, though at least light rain
or drizzle will still be possible. Dry weather returns Monday,
with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the
middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 310 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

-Cool and dreary this evening with overcast skies and spotty
 light showers

-Showers and a thunderstorm or two expected in NC counties this
 evening

Cool and dreary conditions are ongoing across the forecast area this
afternoon. Latest analysis indicates a boundary is situated just to
the south of the area with cool high pressure ridging into the Mid-
Atlantic from Atlantic Canada. Aloft, SW flow is in place with a
trough/low pressure to the W and a shortwave traveling over the
area. Very light echos on radar and obs indicate that drizzle/light
showers are ongoing across eastern portions of the area. Overcast
skies, rain, and the onshore flow have kept temps well below normal
today. Afternoon obs show temps in the low 60s with a couple of
sites even in the upper 50s. The extreme southern portion of the
area is slightly warmer, with temps in the mid-upper 60s.

Redevelopment of showers and perhaps isolated rumbles of thunder are
expected this afternoon in NC as the trough shifts east and a
shortwave moves over the area. However, initiation of showers may
prove difficult given the rain this morning and cool, misty
conditions this afternoon. Indeed, the trend of high-res guidance
today has been to keep the vast majority of precip to the south.
Therefore, have tightened up PoPs to keep anything above 55% to the
extreme southern edge. If thunderstorms manage to develop, there
is a marginal risk for isolated severe wind. Showers gradually
diminish overnight, lingering longest in the far SE. Overcast
skies continue tonight and lows will be in the upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Mostly dry Sunday aside from a stray shower or two. High
  temperatures will remain below normal, though may warm into
  the 70s for northwestern portions of the area.

- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures
  Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures
  expected well inland.

Drying out Sunday as weak low pressure gradually moves ESE off the
Carolina coast. There may be quite a difference in weather Sunday
across the area as drier air attempts to filter into from the north
and the cooler maritime airmass persists across the SE and along the
coast. Thus, we may see some clearing for north west portions of the
area away from the immediate coast (especially in the later aftn
hrs). As such, temps in the NW counties may be up to 10 degrees
warmer than locations at the coast. Highs in the W/NW look to reach
at least the low 70s, while locations along the coast stay in the
mid-60s. If clouds are quicker to clear out, could see temps reach
the mid-upper 70s in the west, as some statistical guidance would
suggest. Sunday looks more and more dry with latest high-res
guidance. However, cannot rule out a stray shower or two. Lows Sun
night will be in the mid 50s.

High pressure will shift to the S on Monday as low pressure moves
farther offshore. Additionally, a ridge builds in aloft. Onshore
flow continues, though, which will limit temps closer to the coast
to the upper 60s-around 70. Meanwhile, locations along and W of I-95
warm into the upper 70s. Lows Mon night in the low-mid 50s. Warmer
still on Tues as the high shifts offshore, skies mostly clear out,
and winds shift to the SE. Onshore flow will once again limit temps
at the coast, but will be warmer that days previous. Highs at the
coast will be in the low 70s. Inland, temps warm to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer and mostly dry for the mid-week period

- Afternoon/evening thunderstorms chances return Thursday and Friday

The warming trend continues mid-week with southerly flow in place
and the upper ridge overhead. Dry weather and mostly sunny skies
continues Wed. Highs will be in the mid-80s for most and in upper
70s-low 80s immediately near the coast. Global models indicate that
a cold front will likely cross the region late in the week, but
timing and coverage of associated showers/thunderstorms remains
uncertain. For now, have mostly stuck with NBM guidance for PoPs.
This yields Chnc PoPs in the afternoon/evening on Thursday. With
temps in the upper 80s and dewpoints near 70 anticipated, went ahead
and included thunder as well. Certainly cannot rule out any
severe weather at this time. May be a bit cooler on Friday if
the front has passed. Currently showing temps around 80 across
the N and low-mid 80s elsewhere. There will be another chance
for afternoon storms Friday as a disturbance aloft passes
through. Near average temperatures Saturday with another chance
for scattered storms.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Degraded flight conditions continue this afternoon and look to
prevail for the 18z TAF period. Latest obs indicate that most
terminals are in IFR. MVFR at SBY likely continue through the
evening, then CIGs will drop below 1kft late tonight. While
heavier rain ended earlier today, light showers/drizzle
continues across eastern portions of the area, which may degrade
vsby at times. ECG could see heavier showers this afternoon and
perhaps a rumble or two of thunder, but the majority of the
activity looks to stay to south of the forecast area. E winds
become NE overnight. May be gusty at times near the coast.

Outlook: Conditions improve through the day Sun with the
forecast now looking mainly dry, though BKN-OVC skies are slow
to scatter out. Dry conditions and scattered cloud cover then
expected through mid- week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Increasing NE wind and seas for the weekend. Small craft
  advisories will go into effect for southern portions of the
  marine area later tonight.

Late this aftn, weak low pressure was centered over ern NC while
sfc high pressure was centered over New England. Winds were ENE
5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-3
ft and seas were 3-4 ft. Low pressure will track ewrd and off
the NC coast tonight into Sun, before very slowly pulling away
from the coast through Mon. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly
builds in from the N. Winds will become NE by tonight into Sun
ranging from 10-15 kt N to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt S. Seas
build to 4-5 ft N to 5-6 ft S (potentially 6-8ft if the wind
reaches 20-25kt). SCAs will go into effect later tonight from
Cape Charles S for the ocean, the mouth of the Bay, and the
Currituck Sound. Have added the other two coastal zns up to
Chincoteague VA starting at 7 am Sun morning. High pressure
builds across the Mid Atlc coast Tue into Wed, as weak low
pressure lingers off the SE coast. High pressure slides offshore
later in the week with the wind becoming SSW, but remaining
sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4 ft by Mon night/Tue, and
then 2-3 ft by midweek.

A moderate risk for rip currents continues into this evening,
with moderate for the northern beaches Sun and Mon, and high
for the southern beaches, due to increasing NE flow and
building seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Flood Warnings remain in effect for Nottoway River near Stony
Creek for minor flooding. Lawrenceville crested last night and
has now fallen below flood stage. Stony Creek remains in flood
and is expected to crest tonight. See FLSAKQ for additional
information.

Latest forecasts indicate rainfall amounts from today will lead
to a secondary rise in water level late in the weekend/early
next week, but that most places stay just below Minor Flood
thresholds. Will still need to monitor as a slight over-
performance would lead to additional flooding.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

Astronomical high tides will gradually increase over the next
several days, and this combined with increasing onshore flow
will result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding later this
weekend into early next week, particularly for the middle
Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and
southern shore of the tidal Potomac.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB/SW
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM/SW
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...AJZ/TMG
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ