861
FXUS61 KAKQ 271851
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
251 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves across the region later this evening into tonight.
Additional rounds of showers and storms will occur today into
tonight, with potential severe weather. An upper trough brings
cooler and comfortable weather for the mid to late week period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- There continues to be a threat of severe weather through this
evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are
possible.

Any lingering showers/thunderstorms from this morning`s activity
will continue to move offshore over the next hour or so. All
attention then turns to what additional activity can develop later
this afternoon/evening. The atmosphere remains fairly worked over
across eastern portions of the area, but we have started to see a
recovery across the southern half of the forecast area with some
filtered sunshine now returning. Latest mesoanalysis shows ~1500 to
2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, plenty of energy to support severe storms,
across our southern counties. Expect southern portions of the area
to continue to destabilize, with ~2500 J/kg possible later this
afternoon. In addition to CAPE, effective shear (35-40 kt) will be
on the increase as a front approaches from the west later this
afternoon into this evening. Finally, with the southerly surface
winds and SW winds aloft, there is also some directional shear
supportive of a non-zero tornado threat. Latest analysis shows 150-
250 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH and favorably curved hodographs (especially
closer to the coast).

Hi-res model guidance has been fairly persistent with showing our
next round of storms firing up ~20z and continues to highlight
southern portions of the area for the greatest storm coverage
(Tidewater VA, Hampton Roads, Northeast NC). All modes of severe
weather will be possible with this next round of storms including
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and even an isolated tornado or
two. It should be noted that SPC has the entire forecast area in a
Slight Risk this afternoon, and a 5% tornado threat for most of our
CWA.

Shower and storms come to an end from NW to SE later this evening
into tonight, with generally dry conditions for the second half of
the night. Lows will range from the lower 60s NW to the upper 60s to
lower 70s across the SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Quieter Tuesday, with scattered showers and isolated storms across
the north Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

Much quieter Tue, with a lingering shower or storm across the
far SE. Highs in the lower to mid 80s under a mostly sunny sky.
Upper troughing situates over the eastern CONUS for Tue night
through Wed night. On Wed, a potent shortwave will dive SE and
move through nrn portions of the area. This is expected to bring
an increase in cloud cover and isolated to sctd showers, mainly
N and E of the I-64 corridor and esply on the MD Eastern Shore.
Cooler temps aloft will allow for the development of some modest
CAPE in the aftn, so cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder
as well. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Cooler
Wed night with lows in the 50s for most of the area, and near
60/lower 60s for the far SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Cooler and more comfortable to end the week.

Another shortwave within the larger longwave trough pivots toward
the area later Thu into Fri. However, drier air will work against
any pcpn chances. Still could see increases in cloud cover in the
aftn during peak heating. However, with the drier air and lower
heights aloft, temps will trend back into the 70s with dew points
in the 40s and 50s. Thus, it will feel much more comfortable.
High pressure builds down from the Great Lakes to end the week
and start the weekend favoring a continuation of the dry and
comfortable wx. High temps should begin to inch up some, as
ridging begins to build across the eastern CONUS. Overnight lows
through the extended will be in the 50s to near 60 at the
immediate coast. A few upper 40s are possible Thu and Fri night
across the far NW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing at SBY and ECG to start
off the TAF period, bringing periods of sub-VFR CIGs and VSBYs.
Showers and storms may also try to clip ORF ~18-19z, but less
certainty here. Otherwise, generally VFR CIGs elsewhere outside
of some local MVFR CIGs at RIC. Another round of showers and
storms will develop around or shortly after 21z, bringing
another potential for sub-VFR CIGs and VSBYs at all sites
(highest confidence ORF and ECG). A few of these storms may be
strong to severe with strong wind gusts being the primary
threat. Shower/storm chances come to an end from NW to SE later
this evening (lingering the longest at ECG), with all sites
drying out after 03z as a cold front crosses the region. Cannot
rule out some patchy fog or ground fog at the typical locations
(PHF and ECG) from ~05z to 09z, but overall confidence is low.
VFR/dry conditions return later tonight through Tuesday
afternoon.

Outlook: VFR/mainly dry conditions expected through Thursday. However,
SBY may receive a shower or storm Wednesday afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Shower and storm activity expected across the waters later this
afternoon and evening, with strong wind gusts possible. Outside of
storms, breezy conditions expected with a short-fused SCA in effect
for the bay through this evening.

- Moderate rip current risk today across northern beaches.

Winds are southerly 10-20 kt this afternoon in response to a slowly
approaching cold front from the west (highest over the Chesapeake
Bay). Seas are 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft. These winds continue through
at least this evening, so have opted to raise a short-fused SCA for
the bay through 23z/7 PM. While a few gusts to 25 kt are possible
over the ocean (outside of storms), thinking is this event is
marginal enough to hold off on SCAs there. These winds should also
push seas across the N to 3-4 ft, with perhaps some 5 ft waves
briefly this evening. Convective showers and thunderstorms are also
expected over the waters this afternoon into this evening. Any
elevated winds of this nature will be handled with special marine
warnings as necessary. The front crosses the area late tonight/early
Tuesday, turning winds to the W or NW. Winds again shift to the S
for Tue aftn, but will only be 5-10 kt, as the front meanders near
or over the area. A second, reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air
could bring another period of stronger NW winds late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Winds could briefly approach SCA criteria
during this period, but largely looks sub-SCA at this time. Could
briefly see another brief surge early Friday. Otherwise, high
pressure builds toward the region to end the week and start the
weekend, favoring lighter winds. After tonight, seas generally
remain 2-3 ft through the period.

Moderate Rip Risk for northern beaches continues today with building
seas and more of a shore normal component to wave energy. A low risk
is currently forecast for all beaches tomorrow (Tuesday), but will
need to watch the northern beaches again if any southerly winds
develop.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...SW/TMG
LONG TERM...SW/TMG
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...SW