746
FXUS61 KAKQ 191055
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
655 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier weather is expected today, albeit with clouds persisting
through much of the day. Dry conditions and a clearing sky
return for Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more
summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Much drier today with mostly cloudy skies.

- High temperatures warm into the 70s inland, but stay in the
  60s along the coast.

High pressure is slowly ridging southward toward the area this
morning. Weak sfc low pressure (1010 mb) is centered just off the NC
OBX. Aloft, broad troughing extends from the nrn Mid-Atlantic
southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. The associated shortwave
axis is broadly aligned along the ern spine of the Appalachians.
This shortwave shifts E through today, shifting the upper flow to
the N-NE as ridging expands through the OH River Valley and ern
Great Lakes. This should funnel some drier air into the region,
especially across western and northern portions of the area (away
from the coast). Therefore, we may see clearing, especially toward
the later half of the afternoon. This could allow temps to rebound
into the mid 70s. Continue to go on the lower side of guidance (and
lower than NBM) for temps given some uncertainty on how fast the
clouds scour out. Along the coast and across SE VA/NE NC, moist low-
level flow will keep the dreary conditions in place. Compared to
yesterday (Saturday), there should be less/no drizzle and just
broken-overcast low clouds and breezy NE winds (especially along the
immediate coast). Highs here will likely stay in the mid 60s.
Otherwise, some low-level convergence and a final piece of upper
energy could spark some sporadic shower activity in the Piedmont.
Drier low-levels here should keep the coverage very isolated and
think the latest HRRR runs are too excited regarding this potential.
Will have a small area of low-end/slight chc PoPs mainly N of
Richmond.

Low clouds expand westward off the ocean again tonight. Lows will be
in the low-mid 50s (coolest MD Eastern Shore) and staying mainly
dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures
  Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures
  expected well inland.

- A noticeable warming trend begins Tuesday, though it remains
  cooler at the coast.

Sfc high pressure nudges further S for Monday. This weakens the
pressure gradient and NE winds along the coast should gradually
subside heading into the afternoon. However, it will likely stay
mostly cloudy and temps again struggle to get any higher than upper
60s here. For inland areas, expect to see noticeable clearing as the
day progresses with highs climbing into the mid-upper 70s. Overnight
lows Mon in the low-mid 50s, with some upper 40s possible in
typically cooler inland spots.

Upper ridging builds further across the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday.
Elongated sfc high pressure will also center over the area. Onshore
flow will continue along the coast, but it will be much lighter.
Temps range from the low 70s adjacent to the water to the upper 70s
and low 80s to the W in the I-95 corridor and Piedmont. Skies become
mostly sunny, with a few lower clouds lingering along the coast.
Lows Tue night in the mid-upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Trending warm/hot for the mid-week period.

- Afternoon/evening thunderstorms chances return to end the
  week.

A substantial warming trend is expected Wednesday and Thursday as a
ridge remains across the eastern CONUS and the upper flow shifts to
the W. Highs Wed in the mid-upper 80s (lower 80s coast). Highs for
Thursday have trended higher and NBM now indicates some lower 90s
are possible with high pressure settling offshore and sfc winds
becoming SW. However, the current forecast has upper 80s for most of
the area.

Global models continue to indicate that a cold front will likely
cross the region late in the week, but timing and coverage of
associated showers/thunderstorms remains uncertain. The 00z suite of
guidance generally trended slower w/ the front and the consensus now
favors a Thursday evening/overnight FROPA. For now, have mostly
stuck with NBM guidance for PoPs. This yields chance PoPs in the
afternoon/evening on Thursday and first half of the night.
Thunderstorms are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability.
Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time given 40-
50 kt of upper-level flow overspreading the region. May be a bit
cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Currently showing temps
around 80 across the N and low-mid 80s elsewhere. There will be
another chance for scattered afternoon showers Friday as a
disturbance aloft passes through, with the storm potential dependent
on the track of the sfc features. The best chance for thunder Fri is
currently across the SW. Near average temperatures Saturday with
another chance for scattered storms. Overnight lows through the
extended period generally remain in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 655 AM EDT Sunday...

Conditions are IFR to low-end MVFR this morning. Patchy LIFR has
also been observed in the Piedmont, along w/ some reduced VSBY.
Similar conditions are expected over the next few hrs before gradual
improvement occurs later today with slowly lifting CIGs and a
slow clearing trend. All terminals should be MVFR by 16z/12 PM
and improvement to VFR is possible in the later aftn inland.
MVFR CIGs likely linger along the coast through most of today.
Guidance continues to signal more low clouds moving inland
tonight, with conditions again deteriorating to IFR. Fog is
also possible, especially W of I-95, but could impact RIC. Will
keep VSBYs around 4 SM here for now. Light NE winds expected at
RIC and SBY this morning with 5-10 kt winds at PHF, ORF, and
ECG. NNE winds ~10 kt expected this aftn. Winds become light
tonight inland and NE 5-10 kt along the coast.

Outlook: Lower CIGs potentially lingering along the coast
through Monday with flight restrictions possible. VFR expected
elsewhere Monday. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

-Increasing NE wind and seas today. Small craft advisories are
 in effect for southern portions of the marine area.

1030mb high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early
this morning and extends SW through New England and into the
northern Mid- Atlantic. Meanwhile, weak low pressure is tracking
E off the Carolina coast. The wind is NE 10-15kt north to
15-20kt S, with seas 3-4ft north to ~4ft south. The guidance has
backed off some on the strength of the wind. Regardless, a
persistent NE wind of 15-20kt should still allow seas to build
to 4-6ft today through Monday. SCAs remain in effect for the
ocean south of Chincoteague, the mouth of the Ches. Bay, and the
Currituck Sound. Elsewhere, the wind should mainly be NE
10-15kt. The wind is expected to remain onshore but diminish
later Monday aftn into Monday night as high pressure builds in
from the north. This area of high pressure builds across the
Mid- Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure
lingers off the Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore
later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-
SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by Monday night/Tuesday,
and then 2-3ft by midweek. A cold front settles into the region
later Thursday into Friday bringing a chc of tstms. Conditions
will primarily be sub-SCA with a potential for brief increases
in wind and seas/waves from tstms.

A high risk of rip currents is forecast today through Monday
for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and
nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is
forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally
expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Latest forecasts indicate rainfall amounts from yesterday will
lead to a secondary rise in water level late in the
weekend/early next week, but that most places stay just below
Minor Flood thresholds. Will still need to monitor as a slight
over- performance would lead to additional flooding.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday....

Tidal flooding is not expected during the next high tide cycle
later this morning into early aftn given the lower astronomical
high tide combined with a decent ebb tide. However, astronomical
high tides will gradually increase over the next several days,
and this combined with increasing onshore flow will result in
nuisance to minor tidal flooding during high tide later this
evening into the early overnight hours, and this will likely
continue into early this week, particularly for the middle
Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and
southern shore of the tidal Potomac.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...AM/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...