077
FXUS61 KAKQ 300221
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1021 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will taper off across eastern Virginia and
southeast Maryland through early Thursday morning. An upper
trough will track across the region Thursday afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, pleasant and less humid conditions are
expected for Thursday through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 925 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers will taper off through early Thursday
  morning.

Remnant showers associated with convection from earlier this
evening will gradually taper off through early Thursday morning.
This as an upper trough axis pivots east through the area and
allows drier air to arrive from the NW. The sky is expected to
clear overnight with lows dropping into the lower 50s NW to
lower 60s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Pleasant and comfortable Thursday and Friday with temperatures
  at or just below normal. Highs mainly in the 70s to around 80,
  with lows in the 50s. A few readings in the 40s are possible
  well inland.

- Warming temperatures but remaining dry for Saturday.

Surface high pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes as
weak low pressure lifts NE in vicinity of the Southern New
England coast Thursday. A secondary shortwave trough drops SE
across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon and evening. As a
result, partly sunny/variably cloudy conditions are expected to
develop by afternoon, with isolated showers possible later in
the afternoon and evening, primarily from central VA through
southern VA and NE NC. Any showers should be brief with limited
QPF. High temperatures will mainly be in the mid to upper 70s.
The surface high builds in from the NW Thursday night. Becoming
mostly clear with overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s NW
to the upper 50s SE.

Surface high pressure builds across the region Friday into
Saturday as the upper trough shifts offshore and as an upper
ridge builds across the Ohio Valley. Very pleasant and sunny
Friday with highs in the mid 70s and dewpoints dropping into the
40s. Comfortably cool Friday night/early Saturday morning with
lows ranging from the mid/upper 40s W to the lower to mid 50s
along the coast. The airmass modifies Saturday with highs
warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Still sunny and
pleasant with dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Gradually warming temperatures return Sunday into the middle
  of next week.

- Low rain chances return with typical late day and evening
  showers and thunderstorms possible both Sunday and Monday.

Surface high pressure remains over the area Saturday night,
before shifting offshore Sunday. Low temperatures will mainly be
in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sunday morning, followed by highs
in the lower to mid 80s Sunday. The upper ridge builds across
the region, but does break down slightly later Sunday afternoon
and evening with a low probability of a few showers/tstms
drifting into western portions of the area. The upper ridge
becomes centered over the Southeast CONUS during the early to
middle portion of next week as zonal flow prevails from the
Great Lakes to the Northeast. This will lead to a steady warming
trend with highs in the lower to mid 80s early in the week
trending into the mid 80s to around 90F by Wednesday. Lows will
mainly be in the 60s. Chances of afternoon/evening shower/tstms
will mainly be 20% or less.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...

Will keep mention of a passing -SHRA at KPHF and KORF through
03Z in the form of a TEMPO group and VCSH at KSBY. This as
scattered showers from earlier this evening gradually come to an
end. Drier air arrives overnight behind a cold front, allowing
for VFR conditions. Mainly VFR Thursday with a NNW wind of
8-12kt (gusts to near 20kt toward the coast) with SCT-BKN aftn
CU, and a slight chc of showers inland as another upper trough
tracks across the region.

A slight chc of showers lingers into Thursday evening across
southern VA and NE NC. Otherwise, high pressure builds across
the region Thursday night through Saturday, before sliding
offshore Sunday into Monday. Dry and VFR conditions are expected
to prevail Thursday night through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1000 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Cold frontal passage tonight may allow some gusts to 20-25 kt
  late tonight into Thursday morning.

- Tranquil marine weather for this coming weekend.

Showers and storms produced 30-45 kt gusts over the waters
earlier this evening, but have nearly exited and the actual
cold front will move across the waters soon. High pressure
builds in immediately following the frontal passage. Guidance
wind speeds have bumped up slightly across the Chesapeake Bay
after 09z. As such, have opted to expand the Small Craft
Advisory to include all bay zones late tonight into Thursday for
north winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Winds will subside
Thursday afternoon to 10 to 15 kt before increasing again to 15
to 20 kt on Friday due to another surge ahead of the high
pressure center over the Ohio Valley. Outside of the gusty
shower or storm, seas will generally be 2 feet tonight building
to 2 to 3 ft on Thursday and Friday. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the bay
tonight, building to 2 ft on Thursday and Friday.

Fairly tranquil marine weather is expected this weekend into early
next week. High pressure centered over the Middle Atlantic on
Saturday will slowly shift offshore by Monday. This will allow north
to northwest winds of 10 kt to shift to the south or southeast on
Monday. Winds will also increase to 15 kt on Monday as the pressure
gradient tightens over the area between the high to the east and
developing low pressure west of the Appalachians. Models are in
disagreement in the timing, but they all show some type of boundary
moving through the region Tuesday or Wednesday. This will allow
southerly winds and seas to perhaps increase to small craft advisory
criteria but there is too much uncertainty to include this in the
forecast at this time.

Seas of 2 to 3 feet on Saturday will build to 4 to 5 ft by later
Sunday into Monday due to the increased southerly wind.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ERI/MRD