725
FXUS61 KAKQ 041708
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
108 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through Thursday with daily chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A cold front pushes through
late Thursday into Thursday night, bringing drier conditions
for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 105 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Very warm and humid conditions today into this evening. Highs
  well into the 80s to near 90 inland.

- Hit or miss-type scattered showers and storms develop this
  afternoon into this evening. While the severe weather threat
  is generally low, locally heavy rainfall remains possible.

Latest analysis reveals ~1020mb sfc high pressure just off the
northern Mid-Atlantic coast, with a weak backdoor front
approaching from the northeast. Aloft, a shortwave trough
centered over the eastern TN Valley into the western Carolinas
approaches the area from the SW into this evening.

Expect two areas of loosely-organized isolated to widely scattered
showers/T-storms to develop over the next few hours, then
continue into the evening. First, showers have already begun to
pulse up over the SW piedmont counties along I-85, ahead of the
approaching shortwave, and as PW values creep upwards of
1.7-1.8". Expect additional isolated to widely scattered
convection over the western half of the area, with greatest
coverage over interior northeast NC. Do expect some showers and
storms to also fire up over the eastern shore and eastern VA, as
the boundary drops across the coastal lower mid- Atlantic. PoPs
are in the 20-40% range, highest coverage well inland.

Much like yesterday afternoon and night, while areal coverage
of storms will remain low and drop off with loss of heating, do
expect we will see at least a isolated convection persist into
the late night hours, focused along the convective outflows and
weakening backdoor boundary advancing farther inland late
tonight. 12z/4 CAMs continue to show forecast soundings w/slow
storm motions amidst weak steering flow aloft and PWs of
1.5-1.7". WPC has maintained a marginal ERO for excessive
rainfall across the southwestern third of the area with the
greatest threat for flash flooding in urban/flood-prone areas.
A few strong gusts due to wet microbursts remain possible, but
the overall severe threat remains quite low. Have noted some
additional sea fog with latest obs at OXB and coastal cameras
showing a pesky low cloud deck with onshore flow and weak
steering flow which will likely persist through the late night
hours before easing, if not into Wed morning.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered storms are expected Wednesday with additional storms
possible Thursday.

- Locally heavy rain is possible both Wednesday and Thursday.

A series of shortwaves moves through Wed ahead of an upper level low
approaching the Great Lakes. As such, mid level flow increases
somewhat (highest across N portions of the FA) with enough mid level
forcing for scattered storms to develop through the day. Given
multiple shortwaves moving through, confidence in storms has
increased enough to increase PoPs to 60-70% across much of the FA
Wed afternoon into Wed night. Storm motions will be faster than Tue
as storms move NE/E, however, locally heavy rain is still possible
with some localized (mainly urban) instances of flash flooding
possible. As such, WPC has the NW half of the FA in a marginal ERO
for excessive rainfall again on Wed. Additionally, with a bit better
mid level flow, there is a non-zero chance for a severe storm or two
with a few strong storms possible. However, given low confidence on
storms reaching severe level, SPC has maintained a general
thunderstorm risk. Storms will continue to be possible Wed evening,
tapering off from W to E Wed night.

A cold front approaches the area Thu with additional scattered
storms possible ahead of As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday...the front
Thu afternoon. The best chance is across SE VA/NE NC where
likely PoPs have been introduced (60-70%). Any storms move
offshore by Thu night as drier air moves into the region behind
the front. Much like Wed, a few strong storms are possible with
too low confidence in severe storms for a severe risk at this
time. Highs in the mid-upper 80s Wed and upper 80s to lower 90s
Thu expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Drier weather returns Friday into early next week.

Drier weather moves in Fri behind a cold front as dewpoints drop
into the 50s. Aloft, an upper level low moves into the Great Lakes
on Fri, lingering into early next week. It appears the upper level
low is too close to the local area for enough instability for
widespread showers and storms. Instead, only a slight chance for a
few isolated showers/storms exists Sun, Mon, and Tue with dry
weather expected Fri and Sat. Highs in the 80s are expected each
day with lows in the upper 50s to 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals persist through this
afternoon. Some localized restrictions in low stratus/sea fog
remain possible along the coast. Additional short-lived flying
restrictions to CIGs/VSBY are possible in isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms and may impact any of the local terminals,
though best chances remain mainly at KSBY and W of KRIC. Heavy
rain with IFR VIS and gusty winds will be possible in any storms.
Storms taper off with loss of heating tonight, though additional
isolated showers or storms are possible overnight. Marine fog
pushes inland across coastal terminals late tonight with CIGs
potentially dropping to IFR range into early Wed morning. Winds
remain light this afternoon, as as a weak backdoor cold front
drops NE to SW this afternoon and pushes inland. Winds become
light and variable again tonight.

Outlook: More widespread afternoon/evening showers/storms are
possible Wednesday and Thursday, with Wednesday likely seeing
the highest coverage of storms. Mainly dry Friday into Saturday,
with VFR likely prevailing for much of Friday through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions through Wednesday, though becoming breezy late
in the day.

- Marginal SCA conditions possible late Wednesday night into early
Thursday ahead of a cold front.

- Daily chances for showers/thunderstorms through Thursday,
primarily in the afternoons and evenings.


High pressure is centered well offshore this morning. Winds are
light with most obs showing winds out of the west and around 5kt.
Later this morning, a weak backdoor cold front will drop across the
region, turning winds to the east by the afternoon. Winds slightly
increase closer to ~10kt through the evening. Onshore flow continues
overnight at 5-10kt, taking on more of a southerly component by Wed
morning. On Wednesday, the pressure gradient gradually increases
between high pressure offshore and an approaching cold front.
Southerly winds will gradually increase through the day as a result.
Winds will be up to 10-15kt by the afternoon, then 15-20kt late in
the evening. SCAs will likely be needed late Wednesday evening
through Thursday morning with gusts over 20kt expected in the bay
and gusts approaching 25kt over coastal waters. SSW winds diminish
Thursday and gradually turn to the west through Friday.

Early morning buoy obs indicate seas of 1-2ft and waves 1ft or less.
Given light winds, this will remain the case through the day today.
Waves in the bay and lower James increase to ~2ft as winds increase
Wed. As winds continue to increase Wednesday night, seas build to 3-
4ft and waves to 2-3ft. Seas fall back to 2-3ft by Thurs afternoon
and waves down to 1-2ft. Rip current risk is low for all area
beaches today and Wednesday. The risk for northern beaches
(Assateague to Ocean City) increases to moderate for Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...

Some shallow / nuisance coastal flooding is possible during the
higher high tide cycles Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning
and again Thursday, mostly for the bay side of the MD Eastern
Shore. Most tidal sites may see very shallow flooding near the
waterfront, but locations in the northern Bay, such as Bishops
Head, could touch minor flood stage as south winds increase
late Wednesday and Thursday. The following high tide cycle
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning may bring similar impacts
as well.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...MAM/RMM
MARINE...AM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...