Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 270522
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
122 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds lingers along the coast this evening as our next
weather- maker approaches from the west. Moderate to heavy
rainfall is expected later Wednesday into Thursday, with
rainfall totals approaching 2-3 inches across the southeast
portion of the area. Locally higher amounts will be possible,
potentially leading to flooding concerns. High pressure and
breezy winds return for Friday before weak disturbances pass
though for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 915 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Off and on rain chances this evening, becoming more widespread
closer to sunrise. The best chances for rain are initially west
of I- 95.

Elongated cool high pressure (centered to our NE) continues to
extend S into the area this evening. To the W, ~990mb low pressure
is lifting across the upper midwest toward southern Ontario, with
the associated surface cold front extending S across the middle and
lower MS Valley. A maritime air mass continues to advect from E to W
off the ocean and nighttime satellite imagery indicates this marine
layer is slowly expanding westward towards I-95. Also noting a quick-
 hitting line of light showers across the Piedmont. Expecting these
showers to quickly exit the area (by 10-11 PM). Will have low- end
PoPs for this activity. Otherwise, mainly dry to start the night.
Also cannot rule out some mist or drizzle along the coast later
tonight, along with some patchy fog. Some guidance crashes the
visibilities below a 1/2 mile, but feel this is more of a (very) low
stratus situation.

The upper trough to the west becomes negatively tilted tonight,
allowing the upper midwest low to quickly eject into Ontario this
evening. This will also nudge the associated cold front closer to
the region tonight. Rain chances begin to ramp up after midnight
across the Piedmont, as SSW flow aloft begins to pump gulf moisture
in our direction. Based on the latest CAMs showing rather widespread
shower coverage, increased PoPs some (especially across the W)
after 6z/2 AM into the likely category (60-70%). These higher
PoPs expand eastward as we approach sunrise. Overnight lows will
hold in the lower to middle 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Rain chances ramp up Wednesday afternoon and evening. Locally
heavy rainfall possible (mainly coastal sections) tomorrow
evening into Thursday morning.

2. Winds increase Thursday and Thursday night.

The northern upper low takes on a negative tilt and lifts
across SE canada. Meanwhile, the SW flow aloft will continue to
advect gulf moisture our way ahead of the slowing cold front as
it approaches our region. Light overrunning rainfall should be
pushing into our piedmont zones tomorrow morning to begin the
day, with spotty light rain pushing across the piedmont to the
I-95 corridor Wed morning into the afternoon, as the front
approaches the area. The front crosses into the area tomorrow
night into Thu morning, with rain becoming more widespread
tomorrow night as low pressure developing along/ahead of the
front across the deep south approaches and better moisture
transport overruns the local area. Rain falls moderately to
locally heavy at times mainly along the coast tomorrow evening
into Thu morning. The rain slowly tapers off Thursday, as the
front gets another nudge E-SE by high pressure building east
upstream over the central plains into the lower OH Vly.

Overall, 12z models continued the trend farther east with best
QPF. The period of highest rain chances is from tomorrow
afternoon into early Thu morning inland and tomorrow night into
Thu morning along the coast. The heaviest rainfall totals
(2.5-3.5") still looks to fall across coastal E/SE VA into NE
NC Wed night, where high PW and best overrunning moisture linger
longest. We`ve nudged QPF down over far inland sections, with
highest storm total QPF ~1" NW of RIC, 1-2" from Chase City to
Richmond and Salisbury. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for the far SE portions of the area. Given
the area received 1-3" a few days ago, this rainfall (combined
with the likely large QPF footprint) could lead to hydro
concerns across the region and possible flood watches down the
road. See the hydro discussion below for more info. Additionally,
northerly winds become breezy Thursday afternoon and evening,
as pressure gradient tightens between the deepening low and
high pressure building to the NW. High temperatures Wednesday
and Thursday will be in the low-mid 50s inland, mid 50s to
around 60 across far SE NC Wednesday. Highs Thursday mainly in
the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...

System moves offshore by Friday as the local area remains in
northwesterly flow aloft on the backside of the departing
trough, and as surface high pressure builds in from the W-SW.
Clearing with gusty northwest winds, though some mid to high
level clouds will be possible ahead of the next disturbance.
High temperatures Friday will be in the lower 60s inland with
upper 50s along the coast. We stay in a northwesterly flow
pattern aloft through the weekend, which will allow weak
disturbances to pass through from time to time. The first of
these systems slide by to our north on Saturday, bringing some
increasing clouds across northern sections. A second disturbance
may move in on Easter Sunday with a more southern trajectory,
possibly bringing a chance of showers to the entire area by Sun
night and Monday. This pattern looks to persist into early next
week. Highs will reach 70 degrees this weekend and into Monday,
with low to mid 60s across the coast/eastern Shore.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Wednesday...

All terminals from RIC eastward remain steady in IFR conditions very
early this morning with CIGs around OVC006-9. This will likely
remain the pattern for most of the day today, in terms of CIGs.
There may be a time this afternoon where some sites try to pop
up into low-end MVFR thresholds, but a return to IFR and even
LIFR is forecast after ~02-04Z. They may be some patchy fog
through the early morning, but confidence is low as guidance
continues to shift, so left it out of TAFs for now. Rain showers
off-and-on in nature will start to spread across the area after
sunrise, affecting terminals from west to east. Expect the rain
to be lighter in intensity at first, though can`t rule out some
localized pockets of heavier rain with VIS restrictions down to
3SM at times. The really heavier/steadier rain will move in
after ~02Z dropping VIS down to possibly 2SM with RA/+RA and BR
with CIGs of OVC003. This heavy rainfall will persist until
later Thursday afternoon/evening with little improvements.
Winds will generally be east/southeast AOB 10kt through the
period.

Outlook: Rain moves out and skies gradually improve Thursday
night into Friday. Northerly winds will become a bit breezy on
Thursday behind the system, with gusty northwest winds expected
areawide on Friday. VFR conditions to start the weekend; a
slight chance of rain may return on Sunday and into early next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...

Afternoon analysis shows strong low pressure over Lake Superior with
a cold front extending all the way into the Gulf of Mexico. High
pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes continues to ridge SSW
into the Mid Atlantic. Winds locally are generally from the NE 5-10
kt. Waves in most of the bay are 1-2 ft but 3-5 ft waves linger near
the mouth. Seas continue to be elevated offshore at 7-11 ft.

SCA headlines continue for the mouth of the bay and coastal waters
this afternoon. Headlines for the offshore zones and have been
extended into early Thursday and may need to be extended further in
subsequent forecasts. Generally benign winds will continue this
evening and Wednesday as high pressure moves offshore and weak low
pressure develops to the south. Consensus of the 12z guidance shows
low pressure deepening off the SC coast on Thursday and the low
continues to strengthen Thursday night as it lifts NE. Opted to
hoist Gale Watches for the coastal waters S of Cape Charles Thursday
night into early Friday as confidence is highest in this area.
Elsewhere, confidence in seeing Gale conditions is lower but the
potential is certainly there across Ches Bay and coastal waters as
well as the Currituck Sound. These areas may be included in gale
watches in subsequent forecasts. The bright side is this event looks
to be rather short-lived as low pressure quickly moves away from
shore on Friday. The remainder of the forecast period looks to
average below SCA thresholds into early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The area received a beneficial 1-3" of rain this past Saturday.
With additional rainfall Wednesday into Thursday, there is the
potential for some hydrological concerns late this week. Recent
updates to the flash flood guidance show lower values needed in
the 3 and 6-hr time ranges. Ensemble river guidance also shows
the potential for river flooding in the Chowan basin if the
higher rainfall amounts were to be realized. There could also be
the typical concerns with flooding in urban or other flood-
prone areas. Stay tuned for updates as a flood watch may
eventually need to be issued.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...

Tidal anomalies continue to run around 2 ft above normal across the
central and southern Ches Bay. Have upgraded the Coastal Flood Watch
along the bayside portion of the MD Eastern Shore and tidal Potomac
and adjacent areas to a Coastal Flood Warning. Moderate tidal
flooding is likely tonight at Bishop`s Head and Lewisetta as NE
winds and large long-period swells continue at the mouth of the bay.
The Coastal Flood Watch for the VA Eastern Shore has been converted
to a Coastal Flood Advisory as gauges in these areas are expected to
stay below moderate flood thresholds. Elsewhere, left remaining
Coastal Flood Advisories as is. High Surf Advisories continue for
all beaches through this evening and the advisory for VA Beach and
points S has been extended into early Wed morning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for
     VAZ075>078-085-522.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     VAZ082-084-086-089-090-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     VAZ093-095>098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SW
SHORT TERM...MAM/JKP
LONG TERM...MAM/JKP
AVIATION...JKP
MARINE...RHR
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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