735
FXUS61 KALY 081832
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
232 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing upper-level low will see cloudy skies continue as
showers and breezy winds diminish through this evening. Another
upper shortwave and associated surface low will bring a period
of steadier rain overnight into tomorrow morning, with more
scattered showers and below-normal temperatures lingering into
Monday as upper troughing remains overhead.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A lobe of upper-level vorticity pivoting to the east this
afternoon and evening will see diminishing showers through this
evening as shortwave ridging builds in tonight. With a locally
tight surface pressure gradient in place and deep mixing beneath
the upper-level cold pool, gusty west-northwest winds reaching
25-35 mph are expected to continue through this evening. Brief
subsidence associated with shortwave ridging will aid in
weakening the gradient as winds diminish later this evening and
overnight tonight.

A second lobe of upper vorticity wrapping about the parent upper
trough will see a compact area of surface low pressure track
eastward along the PA/NY border and into southern New England.
This system will bring a steadier period of rain overnight and
into Sunday morning. Temperatures look to remain somewhat mild
during ongoing rainfall, reaching overnight lows in the upper
40s to upper 50s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As the second shortwave exits to the east by Sunday evening,
steady rain in the morning will transition to a more showery
distribution. Relatively steep lapse rates beneath the upper
cold pool may support sufficient instability to see isolated
thunderstorms develop through the afternoon, with gusty winds
and small hail possible within brief convective storms.
Temperatures remain similar to today, reaching afternoon highs
in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid
70s at lower elevations. Showers decrease in coverage through
the evening, with rain most likely in the southwestern
Adirondacks in closer proximity to enhancement by lake moisture.
Overnight temperatures trend slightly cooler beneath clearing
skies, reaching lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the
region.

Another upper shortwave trough looks to pivot through the
region on Monday, bringing additional chances for scattered
showers. Temperatures remain at or below seasonal norms, with
afternoon highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s in high terrain
and upper 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations. Robust height
increases aloft through Monday night as large-scale troughing
finally exits eastward will see dry weather return across the
region, with lows remaining cool in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
While upper level ridging won`t be too far away (building north/east
across the Great Lakes), the Northeast is still expected to be under
an elongated upper level trough through Tue. Forcing looks to be
limited, so will only mention a slight chance of diurnally driven
showers in the afternoon to early evening. Temperatures will not be
quite as cool as prior days, with highs in the mid 70s for most
valley locations.

The upper level trough finally exits on Wed, with short wave upper
level ridging building east into the area. This will result in dry
conditions and temperatures warning to slightly above normal levels.
On Thu, heights aloft are forecast to flatten out as the flow regime
W-NW, but with a warmer air mass in place. A weak disturbance
embedded in the fast flow aloft could produce some showers/T-storms.
Moisture/forcing look limited, so will just mention isolated
coverage for now.

A more substantial upper level trough and associated surface cold
front are expected to move into the region on Fri, with a better
chance for showers and T-storms. W-SW winds are forecast to
strengthen ahead of the trough/front, so should sufficient
instability develop, will have to monitor for some potentially
stronger storms. Temperatures should continue to be above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions through at 06 UTC tonight as mid-level
stratocumulus this afternoon clears out late this afternoon with
just a BKN cirrus deck in its wake through this evening. After
06 UTC, clouds lower with BKN-OVC MVFR ceilings arriving by 08 -
12 UTC as an organized area of steady/moderate rain overspreads
the terminals from northwest to southeast. MVFR ceilings arrive
at GFL and ALB first by 08 - 09 UTC as initially light rain
quickly becomes steady/moderate resulting in MVFR vis by 10 -
12 UTC. MVFR ceilings then push into PSF by 11-12 UTC as light
rain transitions to steady rain by 13 UTC resulting in MVFR vis.
There may be periods of IFR ceilings Sunday morning, especially
at PSF and GFL but not enough confidence to show IFR ceilings
at this point. POU remains south of the steadiest rain and
therefore low end VFR conditions may prevail through much of the
TAF period. Held off on MVFR conditions at this time. Light
rain should push over POU by 12 - 16 UTC but still maintaining
VFR conditions.

Steady rain exits towards the end of the TAF period 15 - 18 UTC
with VFR conditions returning.

Breezy westerly winds sustained 10-18 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt
expected through 00 UTC with the strongest winds expected 19 -
23 UTC as clouds give way to increased sun. Wind speeds decrease
this evening, becoming sustained around 5kts by 02-03 UTC. Winds
around 5kts continue through tomorrow morning as winds shift to
northwest towards the end of the TAF period. Winds shift to
the east and even northeast Sunday morning at PSF.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speciale