262
FXUS61 KALY 271057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
657 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A humid air mass will be in place for Memorial Day ahead
of an approaching frontal system, which will allow for widespread
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, some of which may contain
heavy rainfall and gusty winds.  Mainly drier conditions will return
to the region by the middle of the week, with cooler temperatures as
well, although a stray shower still can`t be ruled out.  It will be
dry and comfortable to end the week, as high pressure returns to the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 657 AM EDT...A storm system will be slowly making its way
from the lower Great Lakes towards Ontario and Quebec for today
into this evening. With a moist southerly flow ahead of this
system, abundant moisture moving into the region will help allow
for a few rounds of precip for today.

Initially, the storm`s warm front will be south of the region
for early this morning. MRMS shows a few area of showers (over
the Adirondacks, western New England and the Catskills). Most of
these showers are fairly brief and light, although a few
moderate bursts are ongoing. There was some embedded lightning
earlier but this has ended before it reached our area.   The
activity will be lifting to the northeast over the next hour or
two and this will help allow our region to enter the storm`s
warm sector as the warm front lifts northward. Behind these
showers, there should be a rain- free period for several hours
for the late morning or early afternoon.

Although satellite imagery shows fairly widespread clouds
around, a few breaks of sun can`t be ruled out for the late
morning or early afternoon hours. Otherwise, it will stay mostly
cloudy for much of the area. Southerly winds look gusty today
thanks to the strong pressure gradient in place, with some gusts
reaching around 30 mph, especially in north-south valleys than
channel the southerly flow. Temps will surge into the 70s for
most valley areas and it will continue to be fairly muggy with
dewpoints in the 60s.

As a pre-frontal trough ahead towards the area for the afternoon
ahead of the main cold front, at least one band of heavy
showers and thunderstorms look to develop to the west of the
area and move through the region, mainly for late in the day
(after 4pm according to the 06z HRRR). Model soundings shows
PWATs will surge above 1.50" and ensemble guidance suggest PWATs
will reach 1 to 3 STD above normal for this time of year.
Although showers and thunderstorms look progressive, some heavy
downpours are expected and there could be some isolated poor
drainage/urban flood issues around. A rogue flash flood can`t be
ruled out if heavy rainfall repeats over any one location,
although this looks like a low-end threat due to rapid movement
of precip and likelihood that the heaviest batch will be within
one main band ahead of the pre-frontal trough late today. WPC
suggests the greatest risk for this will be across the
Catskills, as this is where they have a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall.

In addition, there is a threat with this activity for some
gusty winds. While instability will be limited (00z SPC HREF
shows MUCAPE values under 1000 J/kg), there is a lot of shear in
place. 0-6 km bulk shear values will be around 40 kts, with a
lot of this in the 0-1 km layer (about 30 kts or so). It won`t
take a tall storm to bring down some gusty winds, so downed tree
limbs are possible within any heavier convective element. SPC
has a marginal to slight risk for severe weather across western
areas for late today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and t-storm will still be ongoing this evening and will
linger into the first part of the overnight, as the storm`s
cold front slowly makes progress from west to east across the
area. CAMs show most of the activity should be done by midnight
to 2 AM or so and the threat for the heaviest showers/thunder is
likely early, as the loss of heating should help keep storms
from staying strong. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies will
gradually become partly to mostly clear towards daybreak
Tuesday, with temps falling into the mid 50s to mid 60s and
dewpoints starting to fall.

Although it will be a little less humid on Tuesday, temps still
look seasonably mild for most areas, with mid to upper 70s in
valley areas. As the upper level trough approaches, some
additional showers and possibly a rumble of thunder will be
possible for late in the day. Any activity on Tuesday look
fairly scattered and mainly limited to areas west and north of
the Capital Region. While sky cover will start off mainly clear
early in the day, it will become partly to mostly cloudy by
afternoon. Any precip should diminish for Tuesday night with
lows in the 50s (some 40s across the highest terrain).

Temps will be a little cooler for Wed into Wed night with the
upper level trough still overhead. Another disturbance rotating
around the main upper level trough will help initiate a few more
showers, although the best forcing looks to be passing south of
the region. Will continue to go with chance POPs on Wednesday
into Wednesday night for most areas, although any showers look
fairly brief and light. Skies will continue to be partly to
mostly cloudy and dewpoints will remain fairly low and
comfortable in the 40s and 50s. Highs will only be in the 60s to
low 70s with overnight lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper-level trough swinging across the region midweek will exit
eastward on Thursday, with rain showers diminishing from west to
east through the day as drier air arrives in its wake. Heights aloft
begin to rise late Thursday into Friday as high-amplitude upper
ridging builds over the region, bringing a return to dry weather
with clearing skies into the weekend.

Temperatures through the period trend upward each day, with
afternoon highs increasing from upper 50s in high terrain to low 70s
along the Hudson Valley on Thursday to upper 60s near 80 across the
region on Sunday. Overnight lows similarly trend warmer, from
widespread 40s on Thursday night to upper 40s to upper 50s on Sunday
night.

On the far side of the weekend, numerical guidance begins to show
substantial differences in the evolution of the upper ridge, leaving
some potential for rain shower chances late Sunday, although
confidence is low at this lead time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mixed VFR/MVFR conditions expected to continue
through the morning with scattered showers tracking to the northeast
as a warm front lifts across the region. Rain showers may briefly
reduce vsbys to MVFR range through 14-15Z, while cigs trend slightly
upward through the morning as vertical mixing increases after
showers exit. A second, more coherent and steady band of
precipitation is expected to affect the region this afternoon as a
cold front approaches, arriving from the west after 19-21Z Mon.
Strong thunderstorms within the band may briefly result in IFR
cigs/vsbys at some point between 21-24Z Mon at ALB/GFL/POU and 22Z
Mon-01Z Tue at PSF. Some lighter rain showers may linger as late as
07-09Z Tue, with skies trending clearer late in the period.

Southeast winds of 10-20 kt gusting 20-30 kt are expected through
much of the period, until the cold front passes by 02-04Z Tue. Gusty
convective winds within thunderstorms may reach 30-35 kt. Low-level
wind shear will reach 30-40 kt in the lowest 2 kft around the time
of the cold frontal passage, from 20-21Z Mon through 02-03Z Tue.
Behind the front, winds decrease to 10 kt or less out of the south
to southwest.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Picard