636
FXUS61 KALY 281040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
640 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Behind a departing cold front, less humid air will be moving into
the region today. However, an approaching upper level disturbance
will return the threat for scattered showers to the region again for
late today, with a chance continuing into Wednesday and Thursday as
well. Behind this departing system, comfortable and dry weather is
expected for much of the late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 640 AM EDT...Surface cold front has finally moved through
most of the forecast area and is now just exiting far eastern
and southeastern areas. It had taken all night as it slowly
progressed eastward, but drier air is moving into the region on
the backside of the boundary, with dewpoints falling into the
50s and winds switching to the southwest. All precip associated
with the surface cold front is now east of the area into central
New England, although all that remains are a few spotty
sprinkles or light showers. There were a few patches of fog that
developed overnight for areas that continued to see higher
dewpoints, but this is dissipating with sunrise already underway
and drier air moving into the region.

During the morning hours, it should be fairly quiet across the
region with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Despite some cold
advection that will be ongoing behind the front, it will still
be warm aloft (850 hpa around +8 to +12 C) and temps will be
starting out fairly mild. As a result, temps should warm up
quickly with the partial sunshine and highs should reach the mid
to upper 70s in many valley areas by the afternoon hours.

Even though the day will start off dry, there will be some
scattered showers and possible t-storms developing by the
afternoon and early evening hours, as a large upper level trough
starts to approach from the west. Skies will become partly to
mostly cloudy for late in the day and there will be some
scattered showers around. Most of the precip should be short-
lived and brief, but a quick downpour will be possible for late
in the day. With the lowering dewpoints and limited instability,
no severe storms are expected, but a rumble of thunder can`t be
ruled out within the heaviest showers. Still, most areas won`t
see much precip today and the best chance will be for areas
north and west of the Capital Region.

In addition, the decent mixing and lingering pressure gradient
will allow for another breezy day. Westerly winds may gusts as
high as 25 mph during the afternoon hours, especially within the
Mohawk Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
With the upper level trough overhead, there will be a continued
threat for a few passing showers for tonight, although coverage
will probably decrease with the loss of daytime heating. Still,
the moist cyclonic flow will allow for plenty of clouds,
especially in the high terrain areas and a few light showers
(mainly northern areas). Temps will generally be in the 50s for
tonight.

On Wednesday, another disturbance rotating around the upper
level trough will continue to allow for more diurnally-forced
showers and possible t-storms. Based on the expected track of
this upper level feature, southern areas will have the highest
coverage of precip (with areas probably south of the area even
more likely to see wet weather on Wednesday). Will continue to
mention a chance for a shower on Wednesday. There may just
enough instability for a rumble of thunder again, but it looks
even more isolated than Tuesday, with the best chance probably
south of the area. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly
cloudy once again. Temps look cooler than recent days due to the
lower heights and cooler temps aloft, so highs will be in the
60s to low 70s across the area. With the upper level trough
still nearby, will keep the threat for a shower into Wednesday
night with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Models suggest the upper level trough will remain over the
Northeast on Thursday into Thursday night as well, as another
disturbance rotates southward into the trough out of eastern
Canada. This may cutoff as well, keeping the feature in place
over the area. However, moisture will be more limited, so any
spotty showers for Thursday into Thursday night will be limited
to just southern and eastern areas. Any precip looks very brief
and light and many areas will be staying dry, as some drier air
does try to work its way into the area from the west. Skies will
be partly cloudy on Thursday and mostly clear on Thursday night.
It will continue to be cool thanks to the lower heights in
place, with 60s to low 70s once again on Thursday and mainly
40s on Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper-level troughing departs eastward by Friday morning, with
narrow but high-amplitude upper ridge and associated subsidence and
surface high pressure expected to build in through the weekend. Dry
weather with mostly sunny skies are therefore expected Friday and
Saturday, while there is lower confidence in the large-scale pattern
for the far side of the weekend and into next week. The most likely
outcome at this lead time will see dry and warm conditions continue
through Sunday and much of Monday before an upper-level shortwave
approaches from the Midwest and Ohio Valley, bringing chances for
rain showers into Tuesday.

Temperatures through the period look to trend upward each day. With
cool northwest low-level flow in place on Friday, temperatures
remain near to below normal, reaching afternoon highs in the 60s in
high terrain and low to mid 70s at lower elevations, before dipping
to overnight lows in the 40s across the region thanks to efficient
radiative cooling. As ridging builds in, temperatures warm a few
degrees each afternoon, reaching highs on Monday in the 70s in high
terrain and low to mid 80s at lower elevations. Overnight lows
similarly trend toward more mild values, with temperatures Monday
night only falling into the 50s across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...MVFR cigs are quickly lifting to VFR levels
behind the cold front progressing to the southeast across the
region. Clearing skies late in the overnight period allowed for
radiation fog/mist to develop ahead of the front where low-level
moisture is higher, with MVFR or possibly IFR vsbys yet possible at
POU through 13Z Tue, after which the increasing solar angle and dry
advection will quickly erode any remaining patches. VFR conditions
should then prevail through much of the period, with sky cover
increasing into the afternoon as another round of rain showers
affects northern terminals including ALB/GFL/PSF, though no vsby/cig
restrictions are currently anticipated during showers. With enhanced
cloud cover and lowering cigs later in the period, conditions trend
toward MVFR at ALB/GFL/PSF after 03-09Z Wed.

Southwest winds at 5-10 kt this morning will increase to 8-12 kt
with gusts of 15-20 kt after 15Z Tue at all terminals. Gusts
continue through 21Z Tue-03Z Wed as winds turn out of the west,
before speeds decrease to 5 kt or less out of the west to northwest.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Picard