646
FXUS61 KALY 040527
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
127 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide continued dry conditions through
tonight. The high will only move slightly east off the coast
through Saturday, with a frontal system slowly approaching from
the west. Clouds will increase on Saturday, with chances for
showers developing west of the Hudson Valley. Showers will
become more likely by Sunday as the system tracks east across
the area with cool temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...Made some minor adjustments based on current obs. Only
chance for a few light showers through the rest of the night
will be across the far NW Adirondacks, otherwise dry conditions
will persist. Some patchy low stratus clouds may develop in some
spots mainly east of the Hudson River, but should be rather
sparse in coverage. Mid level clouds will gradually spread
eastward from central NY through the night, so did increase
cloud cover in the forecast especially west of the Hudson
Valley.

.PREV DISCUSSION[1006]...An upper level ridge axis will be
directly overhead tonight. High pressure off the New England
coast will bring largely dry weather across the region with just
some patchy mid and high clouds. Forecast soundings and the 00z
KALY sounding shows rather dry air in the low-levels, so low
cloud development later tonight looks fairly isolated. While
most of the precipitation will remain to our west tonight, a few
sprinkles may reach portions of Herkimer County after midnight.
Temperatures have fallen into the 50s to lower 60s in most
areas and remain on track to dip into the 40s to around 50 by
daybreak.

Light winds and just thin high clouds will allow for some
radiational cooling. Lows by daybreak Saturday in the 40s to
around 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The axis of deeper moisture associated with the upper energy and
associated warm and cold front will slowly approach through the
day Saturday. Sources of guidance/ensembles suggest the leading
edge of the deeper cloud cover and any rain is timed for very
late Saturday afternoon and night. This suggests more periods of
high clouds through the day with steady light south to
southeast winds and highs in the 60s to around 70.

Showers move into our region from southwest to northeast through
the night Saturday night and by daybreak Sunday many areas will
see showers. Depending on the timing, the onset of showers in
the Capital Region and points north and east may be after
daybreak Sunday. Then, clouds and showers across the entire
region Sunday, limiting warming. There could be a rumble of
thunder but chances are low with a lack of instability. Highs
mainly in the 50s Sunday.

Rain moves out Sunday night and there cold be a lingering early
morning shower Monday. Then, weak cold advection begins with the
exit of the upper system and cold front Monday. Highs Monday in
the 70s with 60s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry weather continues Tuesday with highs in the 70s. Increasing
clouds through the day, with around 70 higher terrain and near
80 mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.

By Wednesday through the rest of next week, split upper flow
with northern stream upper energy slowly dropping out of
Canada and a closed upper low slowly approaching from the
northern and central plains. Confluent upper flow and
associated moisture advection and low level jet forcing will
result in showers and a possible rumble of thunder Tuesday night
through Friday.

There will be some periods of dry weather but there is a lot of
spread in sources of guidance as to the timing of embedded
smaller upper impulses and associated focused moisture, low
level forcing and areas of showers. Still, the general upper
pattern should support unsettled weather. So, again, indicating
chances for showers Tuesday night through Friday. The threat for
severe weather and/or heavy rain looks limited due to the
relatively weak upper dynamics and weak low level forcing.

Highs Wednesday in the 70s with 60s higher terrain. Highs
Thursday in the 60s to around 70. Highs Friday in the 60s with
near 70 mid Hudson Valley and NW CT and some 50s southern
Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z/Sun...VFR conditions are expected through Saturday
evening, with some MVFR Cigs possibly developing after 04Z/Sun
at KPSF, KPOU and perhaps KALB. Otherwise, patchy mid level
clouds will increase late tonight through Saturday. Lower clouds
are then expected to develop after 20Z/Sat, with Cigs 4000-6000
FT AGL, possibly dropping to 2000-3000 FT AGL after 04Z/Sun.

Light/variable winds are expected through daybreak, though may
remain south to southeast at 5-10 KT at KALB. Southeast to south
winds will increase to 5-10 KT at all TAF sites by mid morning
Saturday and continue into Saturday evening. A few gusts of
15-20 KT may occur at KALB during this time.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...KL