395
FXUS61 KALY 300210
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1010 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Some clouds will increase tonight ahead of low pressure
system from the Capital Region south and east with showers and some
embedded thunderstorms from the Interstate 90 corridor south and
east.  High pressure will build in tomorrow afternoon with fair and
dry weather with comfortable humidity levels.  After a cool morning,
expect pleasant weather with seasonable temperatures on Friday with
a warming trend into the weekend to begin June.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...Low pressure currently sits along the Hudson Valley
and stretches east into western New England. Showers and
thunderstorms remain to the south of the region, but are swiftly
approaching the Poughkeepsie area. Few changes were needed with
this update outside of minor adjustments to temperatures and sky
cover to reflect recent obs. See previous discussion for
additional details below.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
As of 400 PM EDT...A weak secondary cold front has become
stationary over the Capital Region, Mohawk Valley into southern
VT. A short-wave is moving around the base of the mid and upper
level trough over the Northeast, Great Lakes Region into
southeast Canada. The low pressure system and the short-wave is
moving across w-central PA. Some isolated showers have popped up
over the southeast Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and southern
Taconics. The rainfall has been light with PWATs less than an
inch and low-level moisture sparser in the drier air mass with
dewpoints in the mid to lower/mid 50s. SBCAPE values are
generally below 500 J/kg.

These showers will increase towards night fall as the wave
approaches. The clouds will increase from the eastern Catskills,
mid Hudson Valley northward into the Capital region, southern
Vermont and Berkshires. Low level convergence increases with
the sfc wave and front with modest low to mid level FGEN. Weak
elevated instability will be in place for some embedded
thunderstorms especially closer to the I-84 corridor. WPC
maintains a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Ulster,
Dutchess and Litchfield Counties and the southern portions of
Greene, Columbia and Berkshire Counties. Some isolated rainfall
rates may get to a quarter inch an hour overnight. Rainfall
tallies around an inch or so are possible in portions of
Litchfield, Dutchess and southern Ulster Counties with a drop to
the northwest and west towards the Capital Region and southern
VT. The GFS is the further north with the wave. We did mention
locally heavy rainfall for locations closer to the I-84
corridor. Some ponding of water and poor drainage flooding may
occur in a few spots.

Lows tonight will vary tonight from upper 30s to lower/mid 40s
over the southern Dacks to upper 40s to lower and spotty mid 50s
over the rest of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow...The short-wave trough moves east of Cape Cod during
the late morning with mid level deformation rainfall/showers
ending. The mid/upper level trough axis move through during the
day. Sunshine will mix with clouds as high pressure will build
in from the north and west. North to northwest winds of 5 to 15
mph will persists and dewpoints will falls in the 30s and 40s.
Max temps will run a little below normal with upper 60s to lower
70s in the valleys and upper 50s to mid 60s over the higher
terrain.

Thu night...clouds will decrease and it will become clear to
mostly clear with light to calm winds. Near ideal radiational
cooling conditions will set up with lows falling into the 40s
with some upper 30s over the Adirondack Park, southern Greens,
and eastern Catskills. If any deposition occurs it will be
patchy frost but sunrise is about 520 am now.

Friday looks like a beautiful day with the sfc anticyclone
building in from PA and the upper Mid Atlantic States. Expect
strong synoptic subsidence to yield abundant sunshine. Highs
trend towards seasonal levels with highs in the 60s over the
higher terrain and lower to mid 70s below 1000 ft in elevation.
Radiational cooling is expected once again Fri night with some
shallow radiational mist/fog in a few spots with lows in the 40s
to around 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An extended period of dry weather is expected into early next week,
as well as a moderating trend to above normal temps for early June.
The weekend opens with high pressure building in over NY and PA.
After a cool morning, expect the subsidence from the sfc anticyclone
and ridging aloft to yield mostly sunny skies and seasonable temps
for the first full day of June.  Max temps are forecasted in the
upper 70s to around 80F in the valleys, and mid 60s to mid 70s over
the hills and mtns with comfortable humidity levels.  Mid and upper
level heights continue to build in over the region Sat night into
Sunday. Decent radiational cooling should allow lows to fall in the
mid 40s to lower 50s.  Low and mid level heights increase to +1 to
+2 STDEVs above normal over eastern NY and western New England based
on the latest NAEFS.  Max temps will be slightly warmer in the 70s
to lower 80s to close the weekend.

The medium range guidance has a short-wave moving toward the region
with a cold front getting close to the I-87 corridor Sunday night
into Monday. The short-wave dampens out. We increased the clouds and
did not add in any PoPs yet. We may need a slight or widely
scattered risk of showers to locations from the Capital Region north
and west. Temps will be milder Sunday night with widespread 50s. The
boundary stalls near the forecast area and then lifts back northward
as a warm front Monday afternoon.  Temps will run about 5 degrees
above normal with dewpoints rising into the 50s.

Tuesday into Wednesday, the air mass will be warmer, more humid and
slightly more unstable.  Ridging aloft attempts to build back in for
any threat for a shower or thunderstorm being isolated.  A cold
front may get close to the forecast area heading into the mid week
with a mid and upper level trough moving into the upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region.  Scattered showers and isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms will be possible by the mid week.  Humidity
levels may increase to moderate levels.  Max temps in the lower to
mid 80s will be common both days in valleys with some upper 80s in
the Hudson River Valley and 70s to lower 80s over the higher
terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00z Friday...Terminals are currently reporting VFR
conditions this evening with the exception of KPOU where a light
shower has lowered visibility to the MVFR category. This should
be a brief period of sub VFR conditions as KENX radar shows the
shower tracking through the KPOU terminal ahead of a break in
incoming rain.

VFR conditions are expected throughout much of the  00z TAF
cycle, though some stratiform rain is expected to develop as a
result of the nearing of a mid-level shortwave disturbance at
KPOU/KPSF/KALB later tonight. While rain should generally be
light enough to keep KALB within VFR thresholds, KPOU and KPSF
could fall into the MVFR category with lowered ceilings and
visibility especially between 06-12z when some heavier showers
will be possible. TEMPO groups were added to the TAFs to account
for this possibility.

Once rain tapers off in the morning, conditions will gradually
improve throughout the day tomorrow with ceilings lifting and
dissipating by the afternoon.

Winds throughout the period will be light and variable to start,
gradually shifting to the northwest at speeds of 5-10 kt
tomorrow.

Outlook...

Thursday Night to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For Thursday, a dry airmass and deep mixing will
result in surface dewpoints falling to the mid 30s to mid 40s across
the region, while temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s will lead
to minimum RH values around 30 to 40%. Wind gusts now look to max
out around 15 kt. Furthermore, most areas saw at least a quarter to
half inch of rain earlier this week. In portions of the Mid Hudson
Valley where rainfall amounts were lower earlier this week
(northeast Ulster, northwest Dutchess, southwest Columbia Counties),
additional rainfall amounts tonight of around a quarter inch should
mitigate fire weather concerns. Therefore, special weather statements
for enhanced fire weather spread are not currently being considered.

Friday will also feature RH values of 30-40% and wind gusts
potentially of 15-20 mph. However, the appreciable rainfall of the
previous several days should once again limit fire weather concerns.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Gant/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Gant
FIRE WEATHER...Main/Picard