088
FXUS61 KALY 260523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
123 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance ahead of a warm front will bring
isolated to scattered light showers overnight.  Sunday will be
primarily dry before showers and thunderstorms develop later in the
afternoon and evening mainly south of Albany. Unsettled conditions
continue into the start of the work week as a low pressure system
brings widespread rain to the region. Isolated to scattered showers
will then be possible through midweek before a drier pattern sets in
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
.UPDATE...Not many changes needed with this update. Made some
minor adjustment to PoPs based on radar trends, with isolated to
widely scattered showers across the northern half of the area.
Temperatures are milder than recent nights with mostly cloudy
skies. Patchy fog may develop overnight as partial clearing is
expected to occur.

.PREV DISCUSSION[1030]...Some isolated to scattered light
showers continue north of a warm front that has become
stationary over PA and NJ and tied to a weak mid level
disturbance/sfc trough moving across eastern NY into western New
England. The 00Z KALY soundings is very dry below 10 kft,
though the PWAT has increased to 1.14". Nonetheless, the forcing
is weak and the pcpn will be light. There is not much elevated
instability too with an MUCAPE less than 150 J/kg. We continued
keeping thunder out of the overnight forecast. We retooled the
PoPs based on the radar and latest CAMs trends further. We did
add some patchy fog west of the Hudson River Valley, if the
skies clear a bit towards 3-6 am EDT. Lows will be in the 50s to
around 60F.

Modest height rises occur beginning Sunday morning with another
shortwave ridge building in across the region and the
aforementioned disturbance shifting east. Clouds are anticipated
to decrease throughout the day as subsidence acts to dry out
the mid and upper levels. Therefore, breaks of sunshine will
help to warm temperatures into the mid/upper 70s to low to
possibly mid 80s in valley areas with pockets of low 70s above
1500 ft.

Ridging aloft will remain dominant across the region into
tomorrow afternoon, but another shortwave disturbance associated
with a low pressure system moving into the western Great Lakes
will start to approach from the west. With this surface cyclone
comes an eastward-extending warm front that looks to remain just
to our south. While clouds will begin to increase for areas
south of Albany tomorrow afternoon, conditions should remain
primarily dry outside of some isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Models have seemed to decrease the coverage
of showers and thunderstorms with latest guidance likely due to
the seemingly slower track of the low and upper shortwave.
However, with SBCAPE ranging from 500-1000 J/kg and weak
isentropic lift ahead of its warm front, continue to message
slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon south and east of Albany. No severe thunderstorms are
expected at this time with an overall lack of shear and strong
forcing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday night, any showers and thunderstorms that develop should
generally taper off with the loss of diurnal heating. However,
dry conditions will not prevail for long. As the aforementioned
surface cyclone continues to track north and west toward the
US/Canada border, it will gradually deepen, strengthening
cyclonic flow in its associate upper-level trough. Southwesterly
flow will strengthen and isentropic lift will increase as its
warm front begins to lift northward. Rain is therefore expected
to spread across the region from southwest to northeast,
becoming widespread by Monday afternoon. While this will
generally be a stratiform rain, some embedded rumbles of thunder
are possible with weak instability (~200-500 J/kg) present
across much of the area.

Rain will persist through Monday, beginning to wane by Monday
evening and becoming reduced to scattered showers by Monday
night. Persistent cyclonic flow with southerly winds will ensure
clouds and showers stick around through Tuesday morning.

Low temperatures Sunday night will range from the mid/upper 50s
to low 60s. Highs Monday will be a little cooler than today with
mid/upper 60s to mid 70s. Monday night lows will be in the upper
50s to low 60s with pockets of mid 50s in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Skies begin to clear from south to north as we enter the
system`s dry slot Tuesday afternoon. However, some additional
showers will be possible mainly north and west of Albany
throughout the day Tuesday as the system`s cold front sweeps
through the region. Then, as the low continues to deepen and
sink south through Tuesday night and into Wednesday, another
batch of showers will be brought on by the secondary, back door
cold front that will progress through the region. Some rumbles
of thunder are possible once again within these showers, but
instability generally looks weak so kept only slight chance in
the forecast.

The aforementioned system begins to pull away Thursday
afternoon, yielding height rises across the region as an upper-
level ridge builds eastward from the Midwest. A large surface
high will accompany it, creating dry conditions for Thursday
night through the remainder of the long term period. However, a
newly inflicted cooler airmass will make temperatures feel cool
in comparison to recent days. Highs Thursday will be widely in
the 60s with mid/upper 50s at higher elevations with low 60s to
low 70s expected Friday. Then, things warm up a bit Saturday
with temperatures moderating back to the upper 60s to mid/upper
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR across the region with bkn-
ovc mid level clouds around 8-10 kft, thanks to an upper level
disturbance moving across the region. Although satellite trends
show some partial clearing upstream, model soundings suggest
skies should generally remain sct-bkn through the rest of the
overnight around 5-10 kft. Will continue to keep flying
conditions VFR through daybreak, as there probably won`t be
enough clearing for any radiational fog to form. Will continue
to allow mention a VCSH for KGFL as radar shows a few spotty
showers nearby, but these will mainly be staying away from the
terminal through the late night hours. Surface winds will remain
very light or calm through the rest of the night.

On Sunday, flying conditions will continue to be VFR. BKN cigs
around 4-6 kft in the morning will become scattered by
afternoon. Some passing high clouds are possible as well. Some
late day showers may develop, but any convection looks very
isolated, so won`t include in the TAF at this point. Otherwise,
it will continue to remain VFR with light winds for all sites.

Will continue to mention VFR conditions into Sunday night. A
light south to southeast winds at 5 kts will develop for all
sites with sct cigs around 3500-5000 ft. It should stay dry into
Sunday night for most areas.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Gant/JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Frugis