359
FXUS61 KALY 301653
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1253 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
he skies will become partly to mostly sunny this
afternoon with breezy conditions. High pressure builds in from the
west, bringing dry weather and warming temperatures into the first
weekend of June. Temperatures will moderate above normal by early to
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...As 1245 PM EDT...The ongoing forecast is in good
shape.

The short-wave and low pressure system continues to move
northeast across eastern New England. The rainfall has ended
across the western New England zones in the WFO ALY forecast
area. Some clouds linger with partly to mostly sunny skies west
of the Taconics/western England. The upper level trough axis
still lingers upstream. The north/northwest winds have increased
to 10-15 mph with some gusts 20-25 mph with funneling down the
Champlain and Hudson River Valleys. We increased the winds,
removed the PoPs and retooled the sky cover based on the GOES-16
visible satellite imagery and observations. A couple isolated
showers are possible over the Berkshires, Litchfield Hills, and
easter Catskills in the late afternoon. Temps will run a little
below normal for late May with upper 60s and lower 70s below
1000 ft elevation with upper 50s to mid 60s over the higher
terrain with breezy conditions.


.PREV DISCUSSION [0345 AM EDT]...

As the potent shortwave and associated surface low exit to the
east through the day today, rain showers will end in southeastern
areas by mid-morning, with skies expected to trend clearer as
heights aloft begin to rise by tonight. A few rain showers may
develop over the Berkshires and eastern Catskills following peak
diurnal heating with cooler air aloft. Following morning lows
in the 40s to low 50s for most and upper 30s in the southern
Adirondacks, temperatures will remain slightly below normal
beneath the cold pool within upper troughing and a cool
northerly to northwesterly breeze. Afternoon highs are expected
in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain, and upper 60s to
low 70s at lower elevations. With diminishing winds and clearing
skies overnight tonight, efficient radiative cooling will allow
temperatures to fall to low in the upper 30s to mid 40s across
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Narrow but high amplitude upper ridging and associated surface
high pressure will build in from the west Friday into the
weekend, bringing continued dry weather and mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures trend upward through the period as northwesterly
flow on Friday begins to turn out of the southwest on Saturday.
Afternoon highs will be near normal on Friday, with 60s in high
terrain and low to mid 70s at lower elevations, and will reach
above normal on Saturday, with widespread 70s, a few upper 60s
in areas of highest terrain, and a few low 80s along the Hudson
River. Overnight lows similarly trend warmer with 40s expected
across the region Friday night and upper 40s to mid 50s on
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper level ridge looks to break down heading into the second
half of the weekend as an upper-level shortwave passes nearby or
just to our south. This shortwave looks a bit stronger compared to
recent runs and may contain enough moisture for an isolated shower
or thunderstorm, especially for areas west of the Hudson River.
Otherwise, it should remain a fairly seasonable day with comfortable
humidity levels. Highs should reach the 70s in most areas with some
valley locations around 80.

The upper-level pattern becomes a bit uncertain for early to mid
next week, but upper level ridging attempts to return across the
region with surface high pressure nearby or just off the East Coast.
Warmer and more humid conditions build across the region with the
potential for some pop up showers and thunderstorms on some days.
Coverage and best timing of these showers remains a bit uncertain
but no day looks to be a washout. Highs Monday through Wednesday
look to range from the mid-70s to mid-80s with lows in the mid-50s
to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18z Friday...Earlier showers have come to an end, with VFR
conditions at all TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through at least the end of the TAF period. Will have FEW to SCT mid-
level clouds between 5000-7000 ft through this evening, but these
clouds diminish after sunset. From that point forwards, just a few
passing high clouds are expected through 18z Friday.

Winds will be from the north at around 10 kt through this evening,
becoming light and variable within a few hours of sunset. Winds
remain light and variable through early tomorrow morning before
increasing to 5-10 kt from the west/northwest between 13-15z
tomorrow.

Outlook...

Thursday Night to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tomorrow, minimum RH values drop to 30-40% in the afternoon.
However, fire weather concerns remain low with maximum wind
gusts of around 15 mph expected tomorrow and all areas having
received substantial rainfall within the past 5 days.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Picard/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Main
FIRE WEATHER...Main/Picard