248
FXUS61 KALY 181755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
155 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds and scattered showers diminish today north and west of
the Capital District as high pressure begins to build while
clouds linger to the south and east closer to an upper-level
disturbance. High pressure Sunday into the workweek will warm
temperatures well above normal through midweek, before a chance
for rain showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weakening surface trough continues to track across eastern
New York into western New England, resulting in light showers
extending from the eastern Catskills into southern Vermont.
Upstream observations show little in the way of precipitation
reaching the surface as surface dewpoint depressions are
generally 15 degrees or more across the region per ASOS and NYS
Mesonet stations.

A weak upper-level system offshore to the southeast has aided
in maintaining easterly flow and a relatively cool airmass with
abundant clouds upstream over much of New England. However, as
upper ridging and high pressure begin to build in from the west,
a clearing trend is expected through this evening, particularly
from the Capital District to the north and west. Temperatures
along and west of the Hudson will be near seasonal norms this
afternoon, reaching highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, while
conditions will be slightly cooler, in the upper 50s to mid 60s,
in the Taconics and western New England.

High pressure continues to increase tonight, with patchy fog
possible where skies are clearest, most likely in the Upper
Hudson and Mohawk Valleys, and within sheltered locales in the
southern Adirondacks. Light rain showers or drizzle may persist
in the Connecticut River Valley thanks to moist, onshore flow.
Temperatures fall to overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s
across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The second half of the weekend will feature partly to mostly
sunny conditions with a mid and upper level ridge folding into
the region. Mid and upper level heights increase. H500 heights
from the latest NAEFS are +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal over most
of the region by late Sunday. H850 temps also nose above normal
a standard deviation or two. Max temps will rise above normal
in the mid to upper 70s in the Mohawk and Hudson River Valleys
and 60s to lower 70s over the mtns and across most of western
New England. The ridge will continue to build in from the lower
MS River Valley/Midwest into the Northeast Sunday night. High
pressure will build in from the OH Valley and PA with near ideal
radiational cooling conditions with mostly clear-partly cloudy
skies and light to calm winds with lows in the mid 40s to mid
50s.

Monday will begin with above normal temps with the ridge at the
sfc and aloft. Max temps will increase to 10 degrees or so above
normal with H850 temps +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal. High temps
will be in the 80-85F range in the valleys, and 70s over the
mtns with partly to mostly sunny skies. Monday night will be
milder than Sunday night with lows in the 50s to around 60F with
mostly clear conditions and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Long term period begins at 12z Tuesday with upper ridging over the
eastern US and high pressure located off the Mid Atlantic coast to
our southeast. This will result in warm advection into our region.
850 mb temperatures will reach +15 to +17C, which will translate to
high temperatures in the upper 70s for the high terrain and
temperatures well into the 80s for the valleys. Therefore, Tuesday
will likely be the warmest day of the year so far for most of the
region. Tuesday does not look too humid with dew points mainly in
the 50s, so "feels like" temperatures are expected to be similar to
the actual temperature, maxing out in the upper 80s. There may be a
few more clouds around in the afternoon and evening especially north
of I-90 as the ridge undergoes anticyclonic wave breaking and a
weakening shortwave tracks along its northern periphery. However,
lack of moisture and warm temperatures aloft should keep any showers
or thunderstorms isolated in nature and limited mainly to the ADKs.
Tuesday night should also be mainly dry with temperatures dropping
into the upper 50s to around 60 for the high terrain to mid 60s for
the valleys.

Wednesday and Thursday...By 12z Wednesday, a strong surface low will
form over the middle of the country in association with deep upper
troughing over the upper Midwest. The upper trough closes off and
the tracks in tandem with the surface low through the Great Lakes
region and into southeastern Canada during the Wednesday-Thursday
timeframe, with the trailing cold front tracking through our region.
The exact timing of the cold front is still uncertain, but recent
trends in guidance have been to delay the frontal passage until
Wednesday night or Thursday. The timing of the front will influence
the coverage of showers/storms. We will have to watch trends over
the next several days, as a cold frontal passage that aligns with
peak diurnal heating could result in some stronger thunderstorms.
Will include chance PoPs Wednesday evening through Thursday due to
the timing uncertainty. With the cold front trending slower,
Wednesday looks to be another warm day with highs similar to if not
a couple degrees warmer than on Tuesday. Fortunately, dew points
look to be mainly in the 50s to around 60 again so feel like
temperatures are currently expected to once again top out in the
upper 80s. Lows will me mainly in the 60s Wednesday night. Highs
Thursday should be a few to several degrees cooler than Wednesday,
with the warmest temperatures (mid 80s) south and east of the
Capital District.

Thursday night through Saturday...We dry out as the cold front moves
off to our east and we see northwesterly winds advecting cooler and
drier air into the region. Friday should therefore be mostly dry.
Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 60s (terrain) to 70s
(valleys) with overnight lows in the 40s to 50s. Saturday, another
low pressure system may track near the region, although some
guidance keeps it and any associated showers to our south. Looking
to days 8-14, the CPC is expecting near normal temperatures and
above normal precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions expected to prevail at all
terminals through much of the period. Scattered rain showers
continue to track across portions of the region, with periods of
light rain possible at POU/PSF around 21Z Sat-03Z Sun. Upstream
observations indicate little precipitation is reaching the ground,
and therefore minimal impacts to vsbys are expected.

Otherwise, high pressure building in from the west will see a
general clearing trend, particularly at ALB/GFL, through the
remainder of the period. Sct-bkn skies at 3-5 kft will decrease in
coverage to few-sct through this evening. Patchy fog is possible
tonight where skies are clearest, most likely at GFL. With easterly
flow advecting a marine airmass into southern and eastern areas,
MVFR cigs may develop this evening at PSF and overnight at POU.

Light east to northeast winds at 10 kt or less will continue through
today, becoming calm to light and variable after 00-06Z Sun. Winds
increase out of the east to northeast again at less than 10 kt after
12-15Z Sun.

Outlook...

Sunday Night to Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Picard