Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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434 FXUS64 KAMA 251747 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1247 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Anticipate quite a dry and breezy start to the weekend across the vast majority of the Panhandles this afternoon. As an upper trough approaches from the west, a deepening sfc low off the Rockies will generate breezy southwest winds of 20-30 mph, gusting around/over 40 mph at times. With clear skies overhead, high temperatures will solidly reach the 90s for most of the area. This combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions will create critical fire weather concerns across the western to central combined Panhandles where fuels are still somewhat receptive. The deepening sfc low to the north will also present the opportunity to hold the dryline across our far eastern stack of counties this afternoon-evening, where there`s a 10-15% chance for a storm or two to initiate before quickly entering western OK. Although most global models show the dryline settling over far western Oklahoma, more CAMs are now depicting the dryline hanging slightly further west, encroaching into our CWA. If this were to occur, 50s dew pts, 50 kts bulk shear, and moderate instability ahead of this forcing would certainly support a severe storm or two, assuming the cap can break. Lack of quality and depth of moisture into the eastern Panhandles could be a limiting factor today even if the dryline hangs west, but all modes of severe weather would still be in play, although large hail would be the primary hazard. Again, this further west outcome has a low chance of panning out, but observational trends will need to be monitored closely through the day. A weak front will drag over the area Sunday behind the exiting disturbance, providing only a few degrees of relief with slightly breezy northwest winds and sunny skies. Highs souldn`t have much trouble reaching the 80s to low 90s, especially for the southern Texas Panhandle. Overnight lows into Monday morning will be a little cooler in spots as well, bottoming out in the upper 40s in the northwest Panhandles. Harrel && .LONG TERM ... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 It looks like rain chances will be going up for the Panhandles Tuesday through Friday. Several upper level short wave troughs will move through the flow next week. A general southeast surface wind will prevail next week. Low level moisture will tend to stay in place with the southeast winds. This moisture will combine with the upper air disturbances to bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region. The devil will be in the details on where the best chance of rain will be each day. The showers and storms may lay down an outflow boundary which could be a focus for showers and thunderstorms the next day. Or an outflow boundary could move all the way through the Panhandles in which case the next day may not have as much convection. There could be a day where we are stuck under low clouds much of the day and we can not reach our convective temperature therefore, cutting down on the coverage of rain perhaps. The best case scenario if we want to see rain is if showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon and they move east of our area overnight and skies clear and the atmosphere recovers for another round of showers and thunderstorms the next day. Also, the rain coverage may depend on the timing of the upper level waves. Right now, it looks like high temperatures will generally be in the 80`s for next week. But cloud cover and rain could change those temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected at all terminals this afternoon and evening with KDHT expected to see some of the strongest gusts today. These winds are partly due to a strong upper-level jet that is currently bleeding down to surface. Blowing dust may also become a problem at the terminals given the dry and windy conditions. However, only KDHT has high enough confidence for blowing dust to be mention at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions should hold for rest of today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 60 89 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 57 87 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 53 82 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 61 91 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 56 90 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 59 89 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 62 90 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 52 86 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 55 85 50 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 58 91 52 92 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 59 88 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 61 88 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 62 91 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 62 93 58 92 / 10 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006- 007-011-012-016-017-317. Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-006. OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002. Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...11