Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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072 FXUS64 KAMA 231734 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1234 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Currently the FA is under quasi-zonal flow aloft, with lots of dry air in the mid to upper levels as seen in GOES-16 water vapor imagery. At the surface is southeasterly winds that are expected to bring the surface RH up to around 90 to 100 percent temporarily this morning, maybe even bring some low clouds to the southern TX Panhandle during sunrise. During the late morning however, a surface trough to the west will deepen over the area with surface winds turning southwesterly and pushing higher dewpoints off into far eastern Panhandles into western OK. This will tighten a dryline that is expected to lay up around the TX/OK state line. Thunderstorms are in fact expected to fire off this afternoon into evening east of the dryline. However, confidence is really low that any storms will get going in the eastern combined Panhandles. Leaving a 10 to 20 PoP in just in case. If a storm does develop in the eastern Panhandles, it is not out of the possibility that it can grow quickly and become severe before exiting into western OK. Behind the dryline, temperatures are expected to warm into the 90s and the surface trough is expected to help mix that drier air aloft to the surface dropping dewpoints into the teens and twenties across the western combined Panhandles. This will lead to RH values potentially dropping as low as 5 percent for some areas. Pressure gradient winds are also expected to bring 20 to 25 mph southwest winds to the central and western combined Panhandles. With much of the west being behind in rainfall this spring, critical fire weather conditions will be of concern. After midnight tonight a cold front is expected to enter the combined Panhandles once again. Bringing northerly winds around 15 to 25 mph behind the front after midnight. Because of this front Friday`s daytime highs are expected to be cooler than today in the 80s. 36 && .LONG TERM ... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Saturday is looking to be warm, dry, and breezy with the potential of critical fire weather conditions returning in the western combined Panhandles. This will be due to a leeside low ahead of a mid to upper level shortwave trough that will move in Sat night bringing with it a weak cold front for Sunday. A dryline will mix into OK leaving the combined Panhandles in westerly winds and Tds in the teens to 20s. Combined with high temperatures well into the 90s RH values are expected to drop well into the single digits again. With a LLTR in place PDC and areas off the Caprock will potentially hit 100 degrees again. Sunday, northerly winds behind the weak cold front will help suppress temperatures a bit with highs expected to be more in the 80s. The rest of the extended period looks to be warm and benign. At least until late Tue evening. A ridge will be in place over the FA and models are starting to hint a potential ridge riders helping to spark off some showers and thunderstorms, mainly going into the overnight periods Tue night and again Wed night. This will all depend on how much low level moisture can stay over the area as these ridge riders come across. Have stuck with NBM PoPs (20-30%) for now as it is still a ways away. With much of the area being well below normal in spring time precipitation storms will be well welcomed. 36 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR conditions are expected to hold under these gusty southwesterly winds. Expect these winds to last through the late evening hours with potential for gust to reach near the 35 kt mark. Low chance of severe thunderstorms does exist in the far eastern portion of the Panhandles, but at this time no impacts are expected to the terminals. Otherwise, look for a cold frontal passage to move through late tonight and create a northerly wind shift at all terminals by sunrise Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon in western portions of the combined TX Panhandle as winds pick up in the 20 to 25 mph range coinciding with RH values falling to near 5%. This will introduce an overall RFTI around 5 to 6 to areas that have seen a huge deficit in spring rain. RH values are expected to start the morning out around 90 percent but fall to near 5 percent by this afternoon as a dryline mixes east. Twenty foot winds may only top out around 25 mph. However, if a fire can get started the low RH and breezy conditions could create issues with containing a fire. The highest concern is in the western Canadian River Value with better fuels and rougher terrain and the lack of crop circle land. Due to the low RH expected across much of the area, counties that do not see critical conditions will most likely see elevated conditions. Tomorrow, elevated fire weather conditions are possible for the western Canadian River Valley west of Lake Meredith. However, winds may become light in the afternoon when the lowest RH values occur. RH values are expected to bottom out in the teens with slightly cooler afternoon temperatures. Saturday, critical fire weather conditions are expected to return in the west again with high temperatures reaching well into the 90s and another surface trough mixing dry air to the surface. Winds could potentially be higher than today especially up against the NM/TX state line and RH values are expected to drop into the single digits once again. 36 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 55 83 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 54 82 52 94 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 48 77 50 88 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 57 84 57 97 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 54 86 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 54 85 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 57 81 55 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 49 81 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 50 79 50 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 53 87 53 94 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 57 83 54 93 / 10 0 0 0 Pampa TX 55 83 55 94 / 10 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 57 83 55 96 / 20 0 0 0 Wellington TX 57 84 56 99 / 10 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006- 007-011-012-016. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...11