Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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862 FXUS64 KAMA 040557 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The residual airmass behind an outflow boundary from morning convection over the eastern Panhandles has since modified, possibly enough to support thunderstorm potential this afternoon. A broad sfc low situated over and south of the Panhandles, along with the retrograding outflow boundary, has allowed southeast winds to maintain upper 60s to low 70s dew pts, with MLCAPE values around 3000+ J/kg and effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts. The downside to this environment is the lack of better deep layer moisture, which may cause initial attempts at storm development to struggle despite this focused area of better fuel and forcing. 18z mesoanalysis shows ample MLCINH still in place from this morning`s weak activity, but if any updrafts can overcome the current capping and inhibition in place, one or two strong to severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards may develop over the eastern Panhandles around 4-7 PM, exiting to the southeast later this evening. As previously alluded to, confidence in any storms being sustained this afternoon is still low (~20%), but there should at least be attempts at initiation as a minor perturbation near the TX-NM border arrives and invigorates the environment. Moisture will stick around the eastern Panhandles overnight, and we could see some patchy dense fog develop as light winds and clear skies help temperatures cool towards the dew point. Any fog/low clouds should burn off through the morning, especially as a weak cold front moves in. While temperatures won`t be drastically different, guidance continues to come in with cooler highs behind the front in the upper 80s to low 90s for the northern Panhandles, while the southern Panhandles stay hot in the mid to upper 90s. Another trend amongst guidance for tomorrow is that better quality theta-e advection to the area behind the front will occur, helping to initiate elevated convection over the central to eastern Panhandles tomorrow afternoon-evening. Have therefore introduced 10-20% POPs in case we can manage a few storms, which could be capable of hail and strong wind gusts. Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s the next couple of nights with occasionally breezy winds behind the front tomorrow morning. Harrel && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Wednesday through next Monday weather pattern has a high chance of being a ridge building over the desert SW and becoming the dominate feature across the panhandles. For Wednesday this ridge has a high chance of bringing drier air to the panhandles leading to fair weather conditions. Under the ridge the panhandles will still be hot with highs remaining in the 90s. Then on Thursday the ridge will start to flatten to the NE as a trough moves across the Great Lakes region. This will shift the orientation of the ridge such that a NW flow has a high chance of setting up across the southern plains. This would overall would be a similar pattern to the one that caused the thunderstorms end of May to early June. With the pattern shaping up the way it is the winds will have better chance than not to be from a southerly to southeasterly direction and weakly gusty. These winds will assist in bringing moisture to the panhandles. Thursday being the first day of the new NW flow pattern should see some limited moisture move into the panhandles leading to a low chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. As the pattern matures for Friday through Monday it has better odds than not to bring abnormally high amount of moisture to the panhandles. This would to a more extensive amount of rain showers and thunderstorms that could occur anywhere in the panhandles during the afternoon and evening each day. There will even be a chance for nocturnal convection if any small short wave trough pass through during any of the nights. There is already indication that the thunderstorms may become strong to severe with the passage of small short wave troughs and dry lines setting up. Since this upcoming event reflects the current severe weather setups the confidence that the panhandles will see severe weather is higher than normal this far out from the event. As the end of the week into early next week will likely be active with ample clouds and a slighter weaker ridge the temperatures have a moderate to high chance of decreasing. This would see the highs fall into the 80s to 90s across much of the panhandles. SH && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Very low ceilings and visibilities are moving in with the advent of fog and low level clouds building in from the southeast. Flight rules have already gone to LIFR/IFR at AMA and are also expected to do so at DHT and GUY within the first few hours of the TAF period. These conditions will eventually lift by sunrise, between 12-14Z. Afterwards, breezy surface winds will be present at all sites. The direction will be generally northerly, wind more of a northeasterly flow be the late afternoon and evening. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 95 64 94 66 / 20 10 0 0 Beaver OK 90 62 96 66 / 10 10 0 0 Boise City OK 88 58 94 62 / 10 0 0 0 Borger TX 96 65 98 69 / 20 10 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 97 63 97 66 / 10 0 0 0 Canyon TX 96 63 93 64 / 10 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 96 65 92 66 / 10 10 0 0 Dalhart TX 92 59 95 62 / 10 0 0 0 Guymon OK 90 60 95 63 / 10 0 0 0 Hereford TX 97 63 95 65 / 10 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 91 63 96 67 / 10 10 0 0 Pampa TX 93 64 93 67 / 20 10 0 0 Shamrock TX 95 66 94 66 / 10 20 0 0 Wellington TX 96 67 95 67 / 10 10 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...55