Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
645 FXUS64 KAMA 241123 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 623 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A cold front will move through the Panhandles this overnight period and clear the area by sunrise. Breezy winds are expected with the frontal passage as well as behind the front with gusts as high as 40 to 55 mph possible. These winds should weaken in the late morning hours as winds trend from northeasterly to southeasterly through the day as low-level moisture begins to creep back into the Panhandles. Saturday morning, some shallow low-level moisture should be spread out across the Panhandles with a dryline in eastern New Mexico. A shortwave trough will move toward the Panhandles through the morning hours, rapidly deepening a surface low in southeastern Colorado to as low as around 990mb. This will result in a tightened surface pressure gradient, strengthening the winds across the Panhandles. The dryline will rapidly push through the Panhandles and into western Oklahoma through the afternoon. Relative humidity values will plummet behind the dryline as dry air mixes down from aloft and additional dry air gets advected in from the southwest. Expecting sustained winds between 20 to 30 mph, possibly up to 35 mph at times, with wind gusts between 30 to 40 mph, possibly up to 45 mph. This leads to concerns regarding elevated to critical fire weather conditions across much of the western half of the combined Panhandles, primarily the far western Panhandles. As such... have issued a Fire Weather Watch for much of the western half of the combined Panhandles. Otherwise, temperatures will be in the 90s for almost the entire CWA, with some 95-100 degree readings expected along the Canadian River Valley, Palo Duro Canyon, and the southeastern TX Panhandle. Winds will gradually weaken through night as winds trend toward northwesterly. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A weak cold front will pull up stationary across the southwest Texas Panhandle on Sunday. Winds will remain generally in the 10 to 15 mph range out of the northwest, except for the southwest Texas Panhandle where winds will be out of the west at speeds of 15 to 20 mph. Another stronger cold front moves through the Panhandles Sunday night. The flow aloft then becomes more northwesterly or slightly zonal from Monday through Friday. This flow will have several minor disturbances that will move through it across the Panhandles. These disturbances will combine with low level moisture to bring chances of showers and thunderstorms to the areas from Tuesday through Friday. The best chances of rain will generally be timed with the upper level disturbances. Plus, any mountain convection should head this way as well. High temperatures will generally be in the 80`s for much of the week after Sunday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated through the next 24 hours. Northerly winds are currently prevalent and will trend toward southeasterly by the end of the afternoon. Southeasterly winds at around 8-12 kts are expected tonight. Vanden Bosch && .FIRE WEATHER... Saturday, winds are expected to strengthen through the morning into the afternoon hours to 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40-45 mph. Morning relative humidity values in the western combined Panhandles will start rather high, between 50% to 60%, but plummet through the morning hours and into the afternoon to a minimum of 5% to 10%. This produces RFTI values between 5 to 7 with localized pockets of 8 possible. As such... a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for much of the western half of the combined Panhandles for Saturday. Vanden Bosch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 81 54 94 58 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 81 51 95 55 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 76 49 89 49 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 84 56 98 57 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 84 55 96 54 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 82 53 94 56 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 81 53 96 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 79 49 91 50 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 79 50 94 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 85 53 95 56 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 80 53 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 81 54 95 58 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 82 53 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 84 54 98 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-317. OK...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for OKZ001-002. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...52