440
FXUS64 KAMA 260819
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
319 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A cold front moving through the Panhandles early this morning will
keep temperatures down about 5 to 10 degrees from yesterday.
Northwest winds will be up in the 15 to 25 mph range, which will be
lighter than yesterday.  Winds will decrease with the setting sun
and they will turn around to the southeast by Monday morning.
Convergence along a surface trough that will be found across the
southwest Texas Panhandle Monday afternoon may serve as a focus for
an isolated thunderstorm in the south-central Texas Panhandle by
late afternoon.  Temperatures in the lower 90`s in the vicinity of
the trough will also help the instability.  More isolated
thunderstorms may develop over the Raton Mesa Monday afternoon.  The
flow aloft may then bring them into the western and central Oklahoma
Panhandle Monday evening.  Any thunderstorms that develop may have
some gusty winds with them as the boundary layer remains fairly dry.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Hope for rain looms ahead this week as we finally appear to have
multiple opportunities at precipitation from Tuesday onward. As
the waters of the Gulf and off the southern Sierra Madre of Mexico
show signs of warming, increasing southerly return flow and 700mb
theta-e advection will pull quality deep layer moisture to the
region throughout the week. As of latest trends, PWATs over 1 inch
could exist as far west as the TX-NM border intermittently, as
perturbations within the flow periodically pass overhead this
week. The most prominent disturbances appear to be on Tuesday and
Thursday, when we could see better potential for strong to severe
storms. Which days see more rain and storms, if any, will also
likely depend on several factors such as previous days`
convection, remnant outflow boundaries, and moisture recovery to
the area. Regardless, deterministic and probabilistic ensemble
guidance continue to ping the eastern Panhandles for the best
chance to see higher rainfall amounts (30-60% chance to exceed 1"
of rain through Saturday). In general though, the entire CWA will
still have realistic shots at measurable rain and storms this
week, as NBM POPs remain ~20% or higher each day area-wide.

While the rain chances are no given, warm temperatures in the 80s
should persist almost every day, with the exception of Wednesday
when cloud cover may keep us a tad bit cooler in the upper 70s.
Winds look to be benign this week, out of the southeast at 10-20
mph. Overnight lows will be on the warm side thanks to constant
moisture/warm air advection, only bottoming out in the upper 50s
to low 60s any given morning.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

West to northwest winds around 10 knots tonight will increase into
the 15 to 20 knot range with higher gusts after sunrise. Winds
will then decrease and become more northeasterly by early this
evening. Skies are expected to remain VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                88  56  90  60 /   0   0  20  20
Beaver OK                  88  53  91  58 /   0   0   0  10
Boise City OK              82  49  87  51 /   0   0   0  10
Borger TX                  90  56  94  61 /   0   0  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              90  53  93  59 /   0   0  10  10
Canyon TX                  89  55  91  58 /   0   0  10  10
Clarendon TX               90  57  90  61 /   0   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 85  49  89  53 /   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  85  50  90  54 /   0   0   0  10
Hereford TX                91  54  93  59 /   0   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                88  55  90  60 /   0   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   87  56  90  60 /   0   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                91  57  91  60 /   0   0   0  10
Wellington TX              93  58  93  62 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...15