670
FXUS64 KAMA 301008
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
508 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

For this morning, the latest crop of showers and thunderstorms
will continue migrating eastward across the OK and TX Panhandles,
eventually become more focused over the eastern sections. Isolated
strong to severe storms are not out of the question with this
current activity.

For later this afternoon and tonight, a minor upper level
shortwave trof is forecast to track into and across the southern
high plains. A dryline is expected to become established over
southeastern Colorado and far eastern New Mexico this afternoon.
There will be more than sufficient moisture present across the
area. Assuming cloud cover from the morning storms erodes
substantially, then there will be more than enough daytime
heating to result in the development of showers and thunderstorms
east of the dryline later this afternoon, with coverage increasing
as it translates eastward and across the forecast area late this
afternoon and tonight. If sufficient daytime heating occurs, then
the atmosphere is expected to become highly unstable by mid to
late this afternoon, with MLCAPE values around 2500 to as much as
4000 J/kg along with shear values on the order of 30 to 40 knots
and steep mid level lapse rates. These parameters support the
likelihood of some storms becoming supercellular late this
afternoon and evening, with large to very large hail greater than
2 inches in diameter along with damaging winds the primary
hazards. Given adequate shear values, an isolated tornado cannot
be rules out. Also, due to decent PWAT values, the strongest
storms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, which may
lead to flooding or flash flooding. Showers and storms that
develop will march eastward through the evening and nighttime
hours, with pops diminishing from west to east accordingly. To
emphasize again, in order for the maximum severe weather potential
to be realized, all the morning showers and storms and associated
cloud cover would have to diminish markedly in order for the
atmosphere to recover to allow for maximum daytime heating.

Models are not in great agreement on what will transpire on Friday
and Friday night. Whether or not another round of showers and
thunderstorms develops Friday afternoon and night will strongly
depend on how fast the atmosphere is able to recover from Thursday
night`s storms. If it does recover sufficiently, then expect more
showers and storms to form over the higher terrain of southeast
Colorado and eastern New Mexico aided by another minor upper level
shortwave trof embedded in the overall flow pattern, These showers
and storms would then track across the area later Friday and
Friday night. A few storms will have the potential to become
severe, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards.
Heavy rainfall with any of the strongest storms may also result in
flooding or flash flooding. Given model disagreements, forecaster
confidence is low on the overall progged scenario for Friday and
Friday night at this time.

02

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

For Saturday and Saturday night, another minor upper level
shortwave trof embedded in the overall semi-zonal flow aloft
is expected to move across the region later Saturday afternoon and
evening. With plenty of moisture in place along with sufficient
daytime heating and corresponding atmospheric instability and
sufficient shear values, expect another round of showers and
thunderstorms to develop Saturday afternoon along and east of the
leeside surface trof axis over the higher terrain to the west of
the forecast area. These storms should then move eastward across
at least parts of the forecast area late Saturday afternoon and
night. A few storms may become severe given favorable parameters,
with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards.

The threat for thunderstorms diminishes somewhat both in pop values
and areal coverage for Sunday and Monday as heights begin to rise
across the southern high plains. Tuesday and Wednesday appear to
be dry areawide as upper level ridging builds over the region. NBM
temperatures and pops fit the above scenario and were incorporated
into the appropriate grids.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

For the 06Z TAFs, thunderstorms may impact KGUY early in this
forecast based on latest radar data and have included mention at
that site. A brief period of MVFR cigs may develop at KAMA from
around 12Z to 15Z. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to develop late Thursday afternoon into early evening,
and have included a mention at each terminal site from around 21Z
to 03Z.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                88  55  81  59 /  40  60  30  30
Beaver OK                  88  59  81  58 /  50  70  30  30
Boise City OK              87  54  80  53 /  50  40  40  40
Borger TX                  91  59  84  61 /  50  70  40  30
Boys Ranch TX              93  56  83  58 /  40  50  30  30
Canyon TX                  89  56  81  58 /  40  50  30  30
Clarendon TX               84  57  78  60 /  40  80  50  30
Dalhart TX                 88  54  81  54 /  50  50  40  30
Guymon OK                  89  55  81  56 /  50  60  30  40
Hereford TX                92  56  83  58 /  40  40  30  30
Lipscomb TX                85  59  81  60 /  50  80  40  30
Pampa TX                   86  57  80  60 /  50  80  40  30
Shamrock TX                84  59  79  60 /  50  80  50  30
Wellington TX              84  60  81  61 /  50  80  50  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...02