Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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157 FXUS64 KAMA 060926 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 426 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The ridge in the jet stream has settled into the southwest CONUS. A series of disturbances from the northwest will allow for precipitation chances starting today and tomorrow, and lasting into next week. Today, a frontal boundary will march in from the north and stall near the central Texas Panhandle this afternoon. By the evening hours the front will continue to propagate southward. Highs today for the I-40 corridor and locations south of it will hinge on frontal placement, cloud coverage, and early convection. With rising heights and good warm air advection, highs in the northern zones will have no issues reaching the low to mid 90`s even after the front passes through. However, the southern Texas Panhandle may reach the lower 100`s if the front stalls and clouds cannot reduce day time heating. Current short range guidance is confident that the front should stall near the I-40 corridor and extend northeast a tad, and thunderstorms have the highest chance to begin in the late afternoon. Where the true point of contention lies is within cloud coverage ahead of the boundary. If the coverage is spread well ahead of the front, we may only see the upper 90`s in the south. Temperatures at the Palo Duro Canyon may be approaching 105 this afternoon, but cloud coverage could prevent this too. Therefore, no Heat products appear necessary at this time. Though, heat safety should continue to be practiced since temperatures will still be well above average. Clusters of thunderstorms should generate ahead of the frontal boundary later this afternoon, and a few could become strong to severe. The overall environment will not be supportive for widespread severe storms, but a few could certainly pulse to that level. Below average CAPE for this time of year, steep mid level lapse rates, and poor bulk shear indicate the primary hazard will be damaging winds and perhaps some hail. Given high forecasted PWAT values and DCAPE, downbursts are also possible with today`s convection and will be something we`ll need to watch closely. Especially if the NAM products verify their soundings, as they have much higher CAPE values compared to the rest of the guidance. Tomorrow, high temperatures have better odds to reach the 100`s across the whole CWA, and another wave of precipitation will move in from the northwest late into the evening. Higher confidence of PoP placement will be for the northern half of the CWA, and some storms could also become severe. Friday`s environmental features will be somewhat similar to today`s, so the same hazards should apply. Rangel && .LONG TERM ... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 For Saturday through Tuesday, upper level ridging prevails just to our west and over the western states while upper level troffing resides across the eastern states. This places our forecast area in some semblance of northwest flow aloft, which is generally a favorable pattern for steering storms eastward and southeastward into our area from the higher terrain of southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico. While medium range models are in basic agreement on the overall pattern, they, along with ensemble members, continue to differ some on location of the ridge axis relative to the southern high plains. Given the general predicted pattern, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will persist across the OK and TX Panhandles from Saturday through Tuesday. Above normal temperatures are also anticipated Saturday before a cold front tracks across the area Saturday afternoon and evening, leading to cooler temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Looking further ahead, medium range models and associated ensemble members suggest the pattern will become progressive by Wednesday and Thursday such that the upper level ridge of high pressure will likely move eastward over the plains states while an upper level trof of low pressure tracks into the western states by the middle part of next week. If this occurs, above normal temperatures may return while rain chances diminish across the forecast area for Wednesday and Thursday. The latest trends seen in the NBM temperatures and pops fit the above scenario based on the overall progged synoptic pattern and were included in all periods of the long term forecast with little to no modifications to the grids. 02 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 TAFs will be VFR for the new 06Z period. Flight rules may change however, with the potential for thunderstorm activity at AMA later this afternoon. Enough confidence is present tonight to introduce a PROB30 group from 22Z Thursday to 02Z Friday. For the other sites, thunderstorm chances are lower but it cannot be completely ruled out. For the time being, we have opted to leave mentions out. Otherwise, breezy northeasterly winds will be had at all sites after the front moves through in the afternoon. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 101 66 99 72 / 30 30 10 20 Beaver OK 91 63 100 68 / 10 30 20 30 Boise City OK 88 61 99 63 / 10 20 20 20 Borger TX 101 67 103 72 / 30 30 10 20 Boys Ranch TX 102 66 103 72 / 20 20 10 20 Canyon TX 100 65 98 70 / 20 30 10 20 Clarendon TX 98 65 96 72 / 30 40 10 10 Dalhart TX 94 62 101 65 / 10 10 10 20 Guymon OK 90 62 101 65 / 10 20 20 30 Hereford TX 101 67 101 71 / 20 20 10 20 Lipscomb TX 94 64 97 70 / 20 30 10 30 Pampa TX 96 65 97 71 / 30 40 10 20 Shamrock TX 96 65 96 72 / 30 40 10 10 Wellington TX 100 66 97 73 / 30 40 10 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...55