Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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224 FXUS63 KAPX 040345 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few decaying showers and possibly a few storms tonight. - Scattered thunderstorms on Tuesday with pockets of heavier rain and isolated instances of gusty winds or hail. - Potential for more widespread showers and thunderstorms very late Tuesday night into Wednesday. - Cooler temperatures and occasionally wet weather continues late this week into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1041 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Weak trough axis continues to slowly make its way thru our CWA late this evening...generating an area of shower activity that is tending to weaken with eastward progress into the rather stable airmass holding over our area. Near term models still suggest some destabilization occurring overnight across mainly Northern Lower Michigan...so still cannot rule out a stray rumble of thunder during the overnight hours. Wind fields will remain rather weak...and with little in the way to organize convective development...do not expect any strong/marginally severe storms. Temps will remain relatively mild with overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Little upper level piece of energy, likely convectively enhanced, moves northeast into northern Michigan this evening, although the more substantial lift is well to the northwest. Looking at it closer, this may not be doing too much for our shower or storm chances as it advects out ahead of the main area of progged showers, (may even be detrimental along with the lake stability). Nevertheless, decaying showers and a few embedded storms will approach this evening into early tonight. Hard to discern any appreciable lift thereafter into Tuesday morning, but good slug of moisture advection and/or/or-not a weak stationary front may produce a few storms during this time. Southerly low level and southwesterly deep level flow expected Tuesday afternoon along with height rises thanks to low pressure system sfc and aloft across N High Plains and southern portions of Canada. Thus, warm temperatures and generally airmass thunderstorms possible during the afternoon. Primary Forecast Concerns: Convection across WI and vicinity will move east across Lake Michigan into the evening hours with very little in the way of favorable mechanisms to keep this activity sustained. That being said, some showers with possibly a bit of embedded thunder will push into the Lake Michigan shoreline this evening, perhaps farther east into the overnight as showery bubbles of low topped convection/showers. This showery activity should be short lived most areas with just some brief rain expected. Whether there`s a bit of low to mid level support, or just moisture advection and a slight hint of sfc convergence, an isolated pocket of thundershowers will be possible Tuesday morning and midday. As sfc temps rise due to southerly flow and dewpoints follow suit with values in the mid 60s, ~1000-1500 J/kg of instability will foster. Despite the favorable instability, speed shear profiles will be weak thus any isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity will largely be unorganized. PWs will be quite high as well, with ~2 SD above normal for this time of year with a relatively saturated column. Thus, primary concerns with any storms later Tuesday will be locally heavy rain and isolated instances of gusty winds and hail with the stronger, friskier updrafts. Caveat to this fcst is the morning/midday-ish convection/convective debris in addition to rising heights. This may inhibit development during the afternoon hours, so the extent and coverage remains a question mark for sure. Could see a scenario where the lake breeze kicks off some storms, but will have to monitor that development given it even occurs. Temperatures likely soar into at least the mid 80s tomorrow across interior norther Michigan, 70s along the coasts. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Pattern Forecast: By Tuesday evening, mid-level ridging centered off to our east. Focus revolves around incoming shortwave troughing tied to closed upper level low pressure and attendant surface reflection that are expected to meander from Manitoba into the Great Lakes region late this week. This wave will send a myriad of boundaries across the forecast area mid-late week with our sensible weather plummeting from summer-like warmth and humidity to cool, breezy and showery fall-like conditions by late Thursday into the weekend. This slow-moving feature likely to be making headway to the east by the tail end of the weekend and especially into early next week as long range trends suggest mid-upper level ridging folds back into the western Great Lakes. Forecast Details: Deep southerly flow in place Tuesday night with a rather mild and muggy night in store. Lows only falling into the mid- upper 60s for many areas. Latest trends favor largely dry conditions for much of Tuesday night, although just enough support to continue low pops for a few rogue showers/storms. By early Wednesday, focus shifts to an approaching cold front that`s continued to slow in deterministic and ensemble guidance over the past 24 hours. This feature now progged to cross northern MI from west to east during the day Wednesday. Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms expected with low chances for a few stronger storms given bulk shear progged around 30 kts. Locally heavy downpours a good bet in any thunderstorms given that continued moisture-rich pre-frontal airmass. Most numerous shower/storm chances diminish late in the day Wednesday with a secondary cold front expected to cross the forecast area during the day Thursday. This latter boundary aiding to reinforce much cooler temperatures as vertically stacked low pressure meanders from southern Canada into the Great Lakes region. This system will keep its effects felt through much of the upcoming weekend with temperatures some 5-10 degrees below normal (coolest Friday), occasionally breezy and showery periods -- more of an early fall feeling end to the week/weekend rather than the mid-summer feel we`ll have through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A diminishing line of showers will slowly track eastward thru Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan this evening along a weak trough axis. Additional scattered shower activity is expected late tonight thru Tuesday. An isold thunderstorm is possible tonight and Tuesday...but the chance is too small to include in the TAFs for now. Prevailing conditions will remain VFR...but will temporarily drop to MVFR with some shower activity. Surface winds will remain from the S/SE around 10 kts thru Tuesday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MLR SHORT TERM...JLD LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...MLR