805
FXUS63 KAPX 031900
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
300 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few decaying showers and storms tonight.

- Scattered thunderstorms on Tuesday with pockets of heavier
  rain and isolated instances of gusty winds or hail.

- Potential for more widespread showers and thunderstorms very late
  Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Cooler temperatures and occasionally wet weather continues
  late this week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Little upper level piece of energy, likely convectively enhanced,
moves northeast into northern Michigan this evening, although the
more substantial lift is well to the northwest. Looking at it
closer, this may not be doing too much for our shower or storm
chances as it advects out ahead of the main area of progged showers,
(may even be detrimental along with the lake stability).
Nevertheless, decaying showers and a few embedded storms will
approach this evening into early tonight. Hard to discern any
appreciable lift thereafter into Tuesday morning, but good slug of
moisture advection and/or/or-not a weak stationary front may
produce a few storms during this time. Southerly low level and
southwesterly deep level flow expected Tuesday afternoon along
with height rises thanks to low pressure system sfc and aloft
across N High Plains and southern portions of Canada. Thus, warm
temperatures and generally airmass thunderstorms possible
during the afternoon.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Convection across WI and vicinity will move east across Lake
Michigan into the evening hours with very little in the way of
favorable mechanisms to keep this activity sustained. That being
said, some showers with possibly a bit of embedded thunder will push
into the Lake Michigan shoreline this evening, perhaps farther east
into the overnight as showery bubbles of low topped
convection/showers. This showery activity should be short lived
most areas with just some brief rain expected.

Whether there`s a bit of low to mid level support, or just moisture
advection and a slight hint of sfc convergence, an isolated pocket
of thundershowers will be possible Tuesday morning and midday. As
sfc temps rise due to southerly flow and dewpoints follow suit with
values in the mid 60s, ~1000-1500 J/kg of instability will foster.
Despite the favorable instability, speed shear profiles will be weak
thus any isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity will largely be
unorganized. PWs will be quite high as well, with ~2 SD above normal
for this time of year with a relatively saturated column. Thus,
primary concerns with any storms later Tuesday will be locally heavy
rain and isolated instances of gusty winds and hail with the
stronger, friskier updrafts. Caveat to this fcst is the
morning/midday-ish convection/convective debris in addition to
rising heights. This may inhibit development during the afternoon
hours, so the extent and coverage remains a question mark for sure.
Could see a scenario where the lake breeze kicks off some storms,
but will have to monitor that development given it even occurs.
Temperatures likely soar into at least the mid 80s tomorrow across
interior norther Michigan, 70s along the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Pattern Forecast: By Tuesday evening, mid-level ridging centered off
to our east. Focus revolves around incoming shortwave troughing tied
to closed upper level low pressure and attendant surface reflection
that are expected to meander from Manitoba into the Great Lakes
region late this week. This wave will send a myriad of boundaries
across the forecast area mid-late week with our sensible weather
plummeting from summer-like warmth and humidity to cool, breezy and
showery fall-like conditions by late Thursday into the weekend. This
slow-moving feature likely to be making headway to the east by the
tail end of the weekend and especially into early next week as long
range trends suggest mid-upper level ridging folds back into the
western Great Lakes.

Forecast Details: Deep southerly flow in place Tuesday night with a
rather mild and muggy night in store. Lows only falling into the mid-
upper 60s for many areas. Latest trends favor largely dry conditions
for much of Tuesday night, although just enough support to continue
low pops for a few rogue showers/storms. By early Wednesday, focus
shifts to an approaching cold front that`s continued to slow in
deterministic and ensemble guidance over the past 24 hours. This
feature now progged to cross northern MI from west to east during
the day Wednesday. Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms
expected with low chances for a few stronger storms given bulk shear
progged around 30 kts. Locally heavy downpours a good bet in any
thunderstorms given that continued moisture-rich pre-frontal
airmass.

Most numerous shower/storm chances diminish late in the day
Wednesday with a secondary cold front expected to cross the forecast
area during the day Thursday. This latter boundary aiding to
reinforce much cooler temperatures as vertically stacked low
pressure meanders from southern Canada into the Great Lakes region.
This system will keep its effects felt through much of the upcoming
weekend with temperatures some 5-10 degrees below normal (coolest
Friday), occasionally breezy and showery periods -- more of an early
fall feeling end to the week/weekend rather than the mid-summer feel
we`ll have through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Southeasterly winds through the rest afternoon, occasionally
10G18KTs, decreasing after 00Z. Challenge becomes potential
decaying area of -SHRA this evening into the overnight. More
confident in rain at KMBL and KTVC, thus have TEMPOs for -TSRA
and -SHRA respectively from 02-03 to 06Z. Chance for ISO -SHRA
into the rest of the overnight but difficult to pinpoint to what
extent and where. Patchy BR/FG possible around Alpena and
vicinity tonight as well, but not confident in substantial
impacts at KAPN. Would likely be transient in nature. Areas of
TSRA possible on Tuesday as well but confidence much too low to
introduce any mention at this time.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JLD