648
FXUS63 KAPX 060018
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
818 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms into Thursday.

- Cool and unsettled to end the work week and start the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Pattern/synopsis: Pre-frontal trof shifting off the ne lower MI
coast, with the most widespread convection. Actual,
discontinuous cold front advancing toward I-75. This will exit
eastward thru this evening. Upper low shifts toward Lk Superior
on Thursday, with another lobe of moisture and cooler temps
aloft moving into northern MI.

Forecast: Pops diminish from w to e thru the daylight hours,
exiting eastern areas by dusk. There will be a few-hour period
of partial clearing in northern lower MI, and perhaps the
eastern UP. But convective cloud cover and precip is developing
in parts of nw WI and eastern MN, aided by colder air aloft.
Clouds will spill back into the region, toward and after sunset.
This will be accompanied by a chance for showers, and perhaps a
rumble of thunder. Min temps 50s.

Thursday, a chance of morning showers will expand into numerous
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in the afternoon, as
diurnal heating interacts with cooler temps aloft and increasing
moisture. MlCape values rise to 400-500j/kg in the afternoon.
More clouds north than south, partly to mostly cloudy. Max temps
mid 60s to mid 70s, with somewhat breezy west winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Midlevel shortwave troughing currently over the Upper Midwest with
sharp upstream ridging over Hudson Bay will continue to stall
atmospheric flow and continue period of precipitation across the
Great Lakes region. A midlevel jet maxima over the Northern Plains
will progress south of the CWA keeping surface temperatures during
first half of the forecast period climatologically below average.

Midlevel closed low pressure will start over northern Lake
Huron at the start of the forecast period. Surface and low level
atmospheric profiles remain saturated along with height
disturbances to continue showers and storms through Saturday.
Ridging currently over the Pacific Northwest will eventually
makes its way to the Great Lakes region building surface high
pressure for the remainder of the long term.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Showers are expected to linger across the region this Friday
and Saturday. Weak forcing will keep rainfall rates and amounts
low. Aformentioned closed low pressure will continue to pivot
around the region Friday and Saturday locking us into a cool,
cloudy, and wet weather pattern. Cloud cover over the CWA will
only allow high temperatures to reach the upper 50s to 60s for
most locations along with the continuation of intermittent
showers. Weak forcing will keep precipitation amounts low as
the trough lifts Northeast. A general tenth or so of liquid can
be expected for localized areas. Saturday begins to dry out as
cloud cover recedes to the northeast allowing for some peaks of
sun. Additional precip can`t be ruled out as some lingering
moisture could generate a few showers (especially for areas near
the Huron shoreline along with Eastern Upper), but little to no
measurable rain is expected.

Surface high pressure begins to build next week, returning
Northern Michigan to quiet weather with temperatures near
average: Midlevel riding will begin to build over the Great
Lakes region late Saturday into Sunday. Quiet weather is
expected for the first half of next week with temperatures
returning to climatological average for mid June. Guidance is
hinting at the return of precip next Thursday as some height
disturbances move into the midwest from the Canadian Rockies,
but too early at this time to determine the potential impacts to
our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 816 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Expect passing periods of clouds and a few showers through this
taf period. Trends support cloud bases to primarily remain VFR
for areas of northern lower Michigan, with MVFR cigs spreading
back across KCIU overnight into Thursday. West to southwest
winds will become a touch gusty on Thursday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MSB