701
FXUS63 KAPX 260641
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
241 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms return late today into tonight.

- Cooler with rain showers on Memorial Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-level shortwave ridging atop the
western Great Lakes at this early hour with shortwave troughing,
associated surface reflection and convection over the central Plains
and Missouri Valley. This shortwave energy will begin to enter into
the Great Lakes region through the day ahead. At the surface, high
pressure centered over Lake Huron will continue to trek east this
morning with southeasterly return flow developing locally. Low
pressure well to our southwest will make steady northeast progress
to northern IL/southern WI by 00z with a warm front expected to be
draped across southern Michigan. Northeastward progress continues
overnight with low pressure expected to be centered squarely
overhead by 12z Monday.

Forecast Details: Just mainly high clouds overhead through much
of this morning with increasing/thickening mid-high cloud
expected west to east across northern MI midday through the
afternoon. Southeasterly flow increases through the day with
afternoon gusts as high as 25 mph aiding to boost high
temperatures through the 70s area- wide -- warmest in
downsloping locales of northwest lower. Cooler at the immediate
coasts of course, especially near Lake Huron.

By 21-00z, return moisture finally able to materialize with PWs
progged to rise above 1.00" across far southwest portions of the
forecast area. This timing generally coinciding with initial shower
chances working their way into the area with those probabilities
highest from Northport-TVC-Gladwin and points southwest. Shower
chances continue to propel northeastward through the evening as
support continues to increase ahead of the aforementioned northward
moving warm front. PWs up near 1.50" overnight with numerous showers
expected over the majority of northern Michigan at one point or
another. Chance of some embedded thunder as well given fumes of
elevated instability. Better chances of thunder remain downstate
late this afternoon where better instability resides. Lows tonight
in the 50s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Low pressure system will likely be tracking in the vicinity of
northern Michigan through Monday with rain shower chances and breezy
conditions (although oddly still some discrepancies within operation
and ensemble guidance). Upper system and sfc low slowly drift off to
the northeast of the region Monday night, then shifts off to the
east into Tuesday. Little spoke of energy could keep some shower
chances alive on Tuesday. Quiet pattern mid to late week with
eventually height rises and warming temperatures. Perhaps a system
advects in from the center of the CONUS next weekend bringing the
chance for more rain.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Low pressure system will bring a chance for rain showery activity on
Monday despite slight discrepancies in model guidance. Modest rains
will be possible for some, especially northern areas along with
breezy conditions and cooler temperatures. Lingering energy aloft
likely results in continued shower chances on Tuesday, albeit even
more isolated/scattered and lighter in accumulation. Pressure
gradient remains modest thus breezy conditions will continue. Cooler
temperatures should linger on Wednesday due to northwest flow on the
backside of this system then ridging builds in later in the week
gradually warming temperatures back into the 70s. There is some
consensus that a system will be in the vicinity of the central CONUS
and move up into N MI sometime next weekend with the possibility of
showers, but that`s about all the details that can be given at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

High pressure centered from Illinois thru Michigan will slowly
slide eastward overnight. SE low level flow will strengthen on
Sunday in between departing high pressure and a developing low
pressure system over the Central Plains. This system will lift
NE into the Western Great Lakes region by Sunday night...
providing our next chance of widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms. VFR conditions will hold over Northern Michigan
for the next 24 hours. Chances of precip will begin to increase
from SW to NE Sunday evening. Light/variable winds overnight
will become SE at 10 to 20 kts by Sunday afternoon with some
higher gusts expected.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MLR