Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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038 FXUS63 KAPX 261347 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 947 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms return late today into tonight. - Cooler with rain showers on Memorial Day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 945 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 High pressure is departing across the eastern lakes, though ridging extends back toward lower MI. Se surface winds will continue to feed in relatively dry air. But return flow is getting going aloft, north of a surface warm front in central IN and northern OH. Thicker cirrus has pushed into nw lower MI, though actual precip is only advancing on ne IL and se WI. Cloud cover will thicken further, especially this afternoon. Precip chances could approach MBL toward 5 pm, and Empire and Lake City by 8 pm (by which time showers are likely near MBL). Showers and a few TSRA will expand further into tonight. MuCape values are unimpressive, maybe a few hundred j/kg, thru early evening. Thunder chances are better later tonight. Max temps in the 70s, 60s near Lk Huron. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-level shortwave ridging atop the western Great Lakes at this early hour with shortwave troughing, associated surface reflection and convection over the central Plains and Missouri Valley. This shortwave energy will begin to enter into the Great Lakes region through the day ahead. At the surface, high pressure centered over Lake Huron will continue to trek east this morning with southeasterly return flow developing locally. Low pressure well to our southwest will make steady northeast progress to northern IL/southern WI by 00z with a warm front expected to be draped across southern Michigan. Northeastward progress continues overnight with low pressure expected to be centered squarely overhead by 12z Monday. Forecast Details: Just mainly high clouds overhead through much of this morning with increasing/thickening mid-high cloud expected west to east across northern MI midday through the afternoon. Southeasterly flow increases through the day with afternoon gusts as high as 25 mph aiding to boost high temperatures through the 70s area- wide -- warmest in downsloping locales of northwest lower. Cooler at the immediate coasts of course, especially near Lake Huron. By 21-00z, return moisture finally able to materialize with PWs progged to rise above 1.00" across far southwest portions of the forecast area. This timing generally coinciding with initial shower chances working their way into the area with those probabilities highest from Northport-TVC-Gladwin and points southwest. Shower chances continue to propel northeastward through the evening as support continues to increase ahead of the aforementioned northward moving warm front. PWs up near 1.50" overnight with numerous showers expected over the majority of northern Michigan at one point or another. Chance of some embedded thunder as well given fumes of elevated instability. Better chances of thunder remain downstate late this afternoon where better instability resides. Lows tonight in the 50s area-wide. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Low pressure system will likely be tracking in the vicinity of northern Michigan through Monday with rain shower chances and breezy conditions (although oddly still some discrepancies within operation and ensemble guidance). Upper system and sfc low slowly drift off to the northeast of the region Monday night, then shifts off to the east into Tuesday. Little spoke of energy could keep some shower chances alive on Tuesday. Quiet pattern mid to late week with eventually height rises and warming temperatures. Perhaps a system advects in from the center of the CONUS next weekend bringing the chance for more rain. Primary Forecast Concerns: Low pressure system will bring a chance for rain showery activity on Monday despite slight discrepancies in model guidance. Modest rains will be possible for some, especially northern areas along with breezy conditions and cooler temperatures. Lingering energy aloft likely results in continued shower chances on Tuesday, albeit even more isolated/scattered and lighter in accumulation. Pressure gradient remains modest thus breezy conditions will continue. Cooler temperatures should linger on Wednesday due to northwest flow on the backside of this system then ridging builds in later in the week gradually warming temperatures back into the 70s. There is some consensus that a system will be in the vicinity of the central CONUS and move up into N MI sometime next weekend with the possibility of showers, but that`s about all the details that can be given at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 539 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR through the day today with slowly increasing mid-high cloud, most notably this afternoon. Southeast winds through the period, breezy at times, will aid to draw in better moisture ahead of an area of low pressure approaching from the southwest. Initial shower chances arrive at MBL/TVC after 21z with the remaining terminals seeing showers increase through the evening and overnight. Some embedded thunder possible as well. Increasing probabilities (70-90%) for MVFR CIGs after 04z with low probabilities (20-30%) for IFR CIGs after 06z. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346>349. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Monday for LMZ341-342. && $$ UPDATE...JZ SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...JLD AVIATION...MJG