021
FXUS63 KAPX 290204
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1004 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers/storms this evening in central lower MI.

- Chances of frost Wednesday night and possibly Thursday night.

- Wetter weather may return this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Current forecast largely remains on track as showers continue to
dissipate across southern portions of the area this evening. As
mentioned in the short term, PoPs continue to be cut back from
the area as confidence decreases in additional showers later
tonight into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, dry weather is in
store for northern Michigan through the end of this week -- and
perhaps through the weekend as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Synopsis/pattern: cool advection continues, behind low pressure
departing eastern Canada. Primary digging shortwave heads for
southern Lake MI this evening. A trailing upper trof drops south
toward upper MI late Wednesday.

Forecast: Deep convection has developed this afternoon over
central and southern lower MI, away from the lake shadow of
Superior and northern Lake MI. Some showers also developed just
ne of the Sault in Ontario, which are scraping by part of
Drummond Isl. These will continue into this evening, before
fading as diurnal heat is lost. However, the incoming shortwave
will result in somewhat steeper mid-level lapse rates. That will
support convection a little longer than one would normally
expect.

As we move later into tonight, our deeper flow will veer more
north to ne, behind the departing wave. Recent RAP/HRRR runs
allow some of the convection now along the north shore of Lk
Huron to become elevated, and then migrate south and then sw-
ward, back toward northern lower MI later tonight. This feels
like an odd thing to have happen, and will not have pops late
tonight except near Saginaw Bay.

Min temps from near 40f north to near 50f se.

High pressure builds south from Canada toward the northern Great
Lakes on Wednesday. Much drier air comes with it. Skies will
clear from n to s during the day. Pretty aggressively mixed out
dew points in the afternoon, using NBM10% as a starting point
(though did raise that by a bit given we are greened-up). RH
bottom out around 25% in ne lower MI, though north winds will
remain light.

Max temps 60-70f.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Current weak shortwave troughing with lingering showers continue to
pivot towards the northeast while midlevel longwave ridging builds
over the western half of the CONUS. Surface high pressure attached
to aformentioned ridging will return a quiet weather pattern to the
Great Lakes Region for the first half of the long term period.

Mid-level ridging attached to surface high pressure will occupy
the CWA for the remainder of the work week (Thursday, Friday
and even most of Saturday). Mid-level low currently over the
Gulf of Alaska will progress towards the midwest (while
weakening) this week and return chances of showers by the
Saturday evening/Sunday timeframe. Mid-level heights transition
to a quasi-zonal flow pattern with embedded disturbances
spanned across the northern half of the U.S and thus continuing
chances of precip through the remainder of the forecast period.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Chances of frost Wednesday night and possibly Thursday night.
Otherwise; high pressure and quiet weather expected through the
work week. Not much in the discussion in terms of "active
weather". Only main concern is the return of frost chances
Wednesday night and possibly Thursday night. Surface high
pressure will quickly dry out atmospheric moisture this
Wednesday. With clear skies and low dew points, overnight
radiational cooling will allow for overnight lows to drop to the
mid/upper 30s for most areas. Main concern for frost in
interior northern lower as localized areas could drop to near
freezing and thus creating frost during the early growing season
for northern Michigan. Same concerns continue Thursday night
but guidance hints at atmospheric moisture trending upwards
slightly during the day Thursday.

Conditions turn towards a wetter pattern this weekend as
showers and storms return: Showers return to the region towards
the end of the week ad midlevel troughing passes the upper
Midwest. Pockets of quiet weather and even sunshine can still be
expected this weekend and early next week, but mid-level height
disturbances will keep chances of showers in the forecast,
especially this Monday and guidance is hinting at a more
convective setup as a shortwave transitions across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 737 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through the
duration of the TAF period as afternoon showers continue to diminish
near Saginaw Bay. N/NNE winds around 5kts are expected to continue
overnight before increasing to around 10 kts by Wednesday afternoon.
Gusts to 15-20 kts will be possible at times into the early evening
hours.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJC
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...DJC