465
FNUS73 KAPX 221648
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Hopkins Creek...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1248 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on May 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
A quick drying trend will be seen Thursday afternoon with breezy
west winds of 5 to 10 mph and gusts up to 20 mph in unsheltered
areas. Higher mixing heights will allow gusts to become more
frequent in the afternoon hours. Rapid drying will likely be seen
in the afternoon, leading to min humidities in the mid to possibly
low 20s. Chances for the afternoon lake breeze to reach this
location is low at this time for Thursday. Winds will diminish
Thursday night with healthy overnight recoveries. Moisture amounts
will start to rise Friday ahead of the next wetting rain chances.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........26 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to around
                    20 mph.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......6000-7600 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Excellent (1268.0).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40  43  25  16  16  2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............70  73  75  76  77  75
RH..............43  35  31  28  26  27
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W
20 ft wind spd.. 5   5   8  10  10  10
20 ft wind gust.10  10  15  15  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...6.0 6.9 7.4 7.6 7.4 7.2
Haines index....4   4   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.24  23  23  22  22  22
Vrate kt-ft.....126813751470144614111372
Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........69 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to around
                    15 mph early in the evening becoming light.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph shifting to the west
                    around 10 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......5200-6400 ft AGL decreasing to 400-1700 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Excellent (831.0) decreasing to poor
                    (46.0-209.0) early in the evening.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........4   2   11  10  8   6   4   4   5   5   6   6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............75  74  72  68  64  60  58  56  55  53  52  52
RH..............27  29  33  39  48  60  64  66  66  69  69  69
20 ft wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind spd..10  10   8   8   6   6   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 ft wind gust.15  15  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Mix hgt (kft)...6.4 5.2 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Haines index....5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.21  18  13  12  12  12  12  12  12  12  12  10
Vrate kt-ft.....1153831 209 102 66  61  48  50  54  51  48  46
Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........35 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 15 mph shifting to the south
                    around 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-2000 ft AGL increasing to 5100-6600 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (32.0-531.0) increasing to
                    excellent (694.0) in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........7      8      12     19     29     44
Weather cov.....                            CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............53     57     65     76     79     81
RH..............69     64     52     39     36     35
20 ft wind dir..S      S      SE     S      S      S
20 ft wind spd..2      2      6      7      7      8
20 ft wind gust.7      7      12     16     16     18
Mix hgt (ft)....400    700    2000   4000   6000   6600
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Transport wind..W 9    SW 7   SW 10  SW 14  S 14   S 16
Vrate kt-ft.....35     47     208    531    823    1029
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   FAIR   GOOD   EXNT   EXNT

$$
Forecaster...ELD
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414916.0/APX
.DELDT 05/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov