Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
602
FNUS73 KAPX 160738
FWSAPX
Spot Forecast for Black River Wapiti Wallow Burn...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
338 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...Increasing mid-high clouds expected at the burn site
midday through the afternoon leading to filtered/partly sunny skies, but
with temperatures rising into the low-mid 70s. While moisture will be on
the increase this evening, not before RHs this afternoon likely bottom out
near 28-30 percent. Light south-southeast winds today with highest gusts
between 10-15 mph. Scattered shower and storm chances do increase this
evening in conjunction with that influx of moisture, mainly after 9 PM at
the burn site. An isolated shower/storm may continue early Friday with
increasing sun by later in the afternoon.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Increasing clouds (50-60 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........28 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 6 mph
late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 10 mph increasing to around 12
mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2400-4300 ft AGL increasing to 5000-5900 ft AGL
late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Fair to excellent (245.0-683.0).
TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........45 52 59 65 61 56 52
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............61 65 67 70 71 73 74
RH..............49 41 37 32 30 28 29
20 ft wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 ft wind spd..7 7 7 7 8 8 8
20 ft wind gust.10 10 10 10 13 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 3.3 4.3 5.0 5.6 5.9 5.4
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Transp wind dir.E E SE SE SE S SE
Transp wind spd.10 10 10 10 10 12 12
Vrate kt-ft.....245 340 449 519 582 683 622
Ventrate Cat....FR GD GD GD GD EXL EXL
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in
the evening and overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south 9
to 13 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL decreasing to 500-1900 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to excellent (103.0-601.0) decreasing to
poor (48.0) in the late evening and overnight.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........62 72 82 83 83 84 85 86 87 86 84 83
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH
Temp............72 70 68 63 60 58 57 56 55 54 54 54
RH..............33 38 42 54 64 72 77 80 83 90 93 96
20 ft wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S
20 ft wind spd..8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5
20 ft wind gust.13 13 13 9 9 9 10 10 10 8 8 8
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 1.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
Haines index....5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3
Transp wind dir.E E E SE SE S SE S S S S S
Transp wind spd.15 14 12 12 10 12 10 12 9 12 13 12
Vrate kt-ft.....601 265 103 73 63 63 54 60 48 63 70 66
Ventrate Cat....EXL FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
partly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
showers in the morning and early afternoon.
Chance of thunderstorms early in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........50 percent.
20-foot winds.......South winds around 5 mph early in the morning
becoming light, then becoming southwest around
5 mph early in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in
the morning.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph shifting to the west 7 to
9 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-2200 ft AGL increasing to 2800-4200 ft AGL
in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (51.0-343.0).
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........82 79 76 67 50 39
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC
Temp............53 56 63 66 70 72
RH..............100 100 81 70 57 51
20 ft wind dir..S S SW W W NW
20 ft wind spd..6 6 6 6 6 6
20 ft wind gust. 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (ft)....600 1300 1900 2200 3600 4200
Haines index....3 4 4 4 4 4
Transport wind..S 10 S 12 SW 12 SW 10 W 9 W 8
Vrate kt-ft.....65 148 206 217 334 320
Ventrate Cat....POOR FAIR FAIR FAIR GOOD GOOD
$$
Forecaster...MJG
Requested by...Tom Barnes
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414317.0/APX
.DELDT 05/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL barnest2@michigan.gov