Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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322 FXUS63 KARX 091011 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 510 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy today with gusts up to 35mph possible. - Showers/storm chances increase for Tuesday through Thursday. Current guidance is unclear on the severe potential for these days. - Cooler through the early week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Warming trend for the second half of this week with temperatures trending above normal with highs reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Today through Monday: Dry, Windy Today Windy conditions this morning through the afternoon are expected in the wake a of cold frontal passage with wind gusts ranging from 25 to 30kts. Cyclonic flow remains in the area with a series of shortwaves passing through the region. Mostly dry conditions expected, although moisture transport does increase Sunday afternoon, so a shower or two can not be ruled out if we can get more instability than what guidance is suggesting. CAMS are not that excited to have good precipitation chances and any shower potential they do have is confined to eastern Wisconsin for Sunday. Temperatures for Sunday and Monday will remain near or slightly below normal with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Tuesday through the Weekend: Warming Trend, Stormy Midweek Shortwave ridging moves into the area on Tuesday and flattens out by Wednesday. This will allow a couple of shortwave troughs to pass through the region on Tuesday and Wednesday/Thursday. The first trough has more model agreement than the latter trough. Guidance continues to show decent shear, 20 to 35kts of deep layer shear, associated with a 60 to 80kt 250hPa jet over the northern US, MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg, and rising dewpoints with the help of southwest flow as we go through the day on Tuesday. Temperatures for Tuesday are trending warmer than previous forecasts with the aforementioned southwest flow as highs are approaching the low 80s for southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. With these ingredients in place, the CSU machine learning probabilities have a 5 to 15% chance of severe weather occurring just to the west of the local area. We will continue to monitor this severe weather potential as we get closer to Tuesday. Southwest flow remains over the area through Thursday which will help to warm up the area to the upper 70s to mid 80s for Wednesday and Thursday. Current guidance has a shortwave trough moving through on Wednesday with a trailing wave on Thursday. There are some uncertainties in the strength of these disturbances and timing in precipitation chances. Similar to the Wednesday storm, CSU machine learning probabilities gives the area a 5 to 15% chance of severe weather on Thursday. After these shortwaves pass through the area, ensemble and deterministic guidance have good agreement on the ridge strengthening for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 510 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 CIGS: bkn mid level (VFR) cigs set to slide southward across the TAF sites toward 00z as an upper level shortwave transitions east, dropping a cold front/trough southward across the region. Looks like a short window for cigs, with clearing expected by late evening. WX/vsby: no impacts expected at this time. WINDS: deep mixing progged by most of the meso/short term guidance, with the RAP the more rambunctious. Resulting gusts from 25 to 30 kts expected, with the RAP suggesting closer to 35 kts possible. Will temper those toward the HREF for now - which paints only a 10- 20% shot to push above 35 kts. Certainly something to keep a close eye on. Winds will lighten up moving into the evening hours with slackening sfc pressure gradient and loss of daytime mixing. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION.....Rieck