669
FXUS63 KARX 080959
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
500 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will continue through the morning. Low chance (10 to 20%)
  of thunderstorms, mostly in northeast Iowa.

- Near or slightly below normal temperatures through early next
  week. Warming trend for the second half of next week with
  temperatures trending above normal with highs reaching into
  the 80s for much of the local area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Today through Monday:

A couple of shortwaves continue to move through the Central US
today. One shortwave is in the Central Plains while the other is in
Great Lakes region. The Great Lakes system is the one that is
responsible for the current showers over the area this morning.
A cold front associated with this shortwave will help to
prolong these showers through the morning hours. There is also
decent moisture convergence at 850 hPa to work with. The second
system has a moderately strong low level jet associated with it.
The strength of this jet is aiding the moisture transport as
well as providing a little instability. With this instability
there is a low chance of thunderstorms, mostly in northeast
Iowa. All in all, rain totals of up to 1/3" are possible along
and north of I-90. For areas south of I-90, rain totals around
0.1" will be possible.

After these systems exit the region on Saturday, the rest of
the weekend and early next week will have a couple of shortwave
troughs move through while the more broad longwave trough shifts
eastward. This cyclonic flow will help to bring in some diurnal
instability allowing for a shower or two to occur especially
for late Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures for the weekend and
early next week will be near or slightly below normal, with high
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to the low 70s.

Tuesday through Saturday:

Ridging moves into the area on Tuesday and flattens out as the week
progresses. Mixing in with the ridge will be a couple of shortwave
troughs that bring the area its next chance for precipitation, one
on Tuesday and the other on Thursday. This is reflected in ensemble
guidance where roughly 60 to 80% of both ECMWF and GEFS members
support precipitation on both of these days. After these
disturbances move through, ensemble and deterministic guidance have
the ridge strengthening heading into next weekend. Temperatures
through this coming week approach the low to mid 80s on Wednesday
and Thursday as good warm air advection moves into the region
via southwest flow. Heading into next weekend, northwest flow
manages to come back within this ridge and will help to keep
temperatures from trending well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

CIGS: latest meso/short term guidance now favoring keeping any MVFR
cigs this morning south of the TAF sites, and will trend the
forecast this way. VFR deck then looks to scatter out moving into
the afternoon with mostly SKC conditions through the night time
hours.

WX/VSBY: widespread showers this morning, powered by an upper level
shortwave. Some thunder threat (20%) mostly for northeast IA. Could
see brief drop into MVFR vsby with any moderate shower, but for the
mostly part +6SM is expected.

WINDS: northeast to variable this morning before setting in to more
northwest this afternoon with passage of cool front. Generally 10
kts or less, but could see a few afternoon gusts into the upper
teens.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION.....Rieck