040
AXNT20 KNHC 102318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2220 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SE Gulf of Mexico:
Abundant tropical moisture surging northward across the western
Caribbean, combined with middle to upper-level diffluent flow
continues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms across
parts of the NW Caribbean, and portions of the SW Caribbean. IN
recent hours, clusters of thunderstorms have move from Cuba
northward and into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Dangerous lightning,
strong gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility are likely
ongoing within this convective activity over these areas. This
convection will amplify as it shifts across the SE Gulf of Mexico
and the Florida Straits through at least Thu. Mariners should
exercise caution. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from
your local weather forecast offices for detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 21N, extending
from 01N to 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N to 08N between 17.5W and 24W.

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 58W-59W, extending
S of 11N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is S of 12N between 54W and 64W.

A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean Sea along 71W, S
of 14N to inland W Venezuela, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No
deep convection is evident in the Caribbean waters in association
with this wave.

A tropical wave in the SW Caribbean Sea is along 82.5W, extending
S of 16N across Panama and into E Pacific waters, moving westward
at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from Panama to
20N between 78W and 82W. Wave related moisture and associated
convection is surging northward into the SE Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11.5N15W and
continues southwestward to 08N19W. The ITCZ extends from 07N23W
to 04.5N38W and to 08N56W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is behind the eastern-most tropical wave between 16W
and 10W and inland across Africa, while scattered moderate
convection is from 02N to 08N between 25W and 53W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
heavy rainfall in the SE Gulf of Mexico.

A weak pressure gradient persists across the Gulf of Mexico, to
the south of a frontal boundary that has stalled across the north
Gulf states along about 31N. This is resulting in primarily
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. A dry airmass continues
to suppress the development of showers and thunderstorms across
the basin. However, afternoon convection occurring in small
clusters and lines has moved across Cuba and into the far SE Gulf
to the south of 25N, and east of 86W. Radar signatures suggest
squally weather and strong wind gusts associated with this
activity. Light concentration of smoke continue over the western
Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche, due to ongoing agricultural
fires, creating hazy conditions.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will support mainly
gentle to moderate winds most of the forecast period. Moderate
to fresh S to SE winds will develop over the E half of the basin
toward the end of the week. Northward surging low level moisture
out of the NW Caribbean will impact the SE and eastern Gulf for
the next few days with periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Otherwise, hazy conditions due to agricultural
fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least
the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at
times, mainly over the SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
heavy rainfall in the NW Caribbean.

A broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic
extends north of the E Caribbean Sea to the central Bahamas. The
combination of stable middle atmospheric conditions and Saharan
Air moving south of the ridge is maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions, outside of the active convection across NW
and SW Caribbean. The pressure gradient between this ridge and
lower pressures in northern South America results in fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds in the southeast and south-
central Caribbean, becoming fresh southeast winds between 72W and
the Cayman Islands. Seas are 5-8 ft across central portions and
4-6 ft across E and NW portions.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the NW Caribbean through Tue as abundant tropical
moisture surges across the area. Moderate to fresh trades will
prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean through the
forecast period, pulsing to locally strong winds at night.
Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds are forecast for the NW
Caribbean most of the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters our area near 31N25W then continues
southwestward to 24N48W where it begins to dissipate to 21N54W.
Scattered moderate convection is found along this front. Broad
ridging continues to dominate much of the subtropical Atlantic,
sustaining moderate to locally fresh SW winds and seas of 3-5 ft
north of 26N and west of 65W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds
are also noted across the offshore waters of Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola and southern Bahamas along with moderate seas to 5 ft.
Farther east, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 4-6
ft are noted N of 15N off the coast of W Africa to 27W. Over the
tropical Atlantic, trades are moderate to fresh between 27W and
the Lesser Antilles, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Elsewhere in the
basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface high pressure and associated
ridging will prevail across the region through Thu, then
gradually shift northward through the end of the week. Moderate
to fresh S to SW winds over the NE Florida offshore waters will
continue through Tue night, briefly reaching strong speeds N of
29N between 74W and 80W tonight and Tue evening. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds are expected on either side of the
ridge, with light to gentle winds along the ridge axis.

$$
Stripling