618
AXNT20 KNHC 090409
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jun 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SW N Atlantic: Abundant
tropical moisture surging northeastward combined with a diffluent
pattern aloft continues to generate a large area of scattered
heavy showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas and the NW
Caribbean, including Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and
regional waters. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds, rough
seas and low visibility are likely ongoing in these regions.
Currently, numerous showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are
observed from the Gulf of Honduras to the waters between Bermuda
and Puerto Rico. The soils remain saturated over the Greater
Antilles, therefore, it is possible that more heavy rain may lead
to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
terrain. Mariners should exercise caution as these conditions are
forecast to continue through the weekend. Please, refer to
bulletins and forecasts from the local weather forecast offices
for detailed information.

Looking ahead, weather conditions are expected to favor additional
heavy rainfall next week, with the heaviest rains likely impacting
western Cuba and Florida.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 44W, south of
11N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 03N to 10N and between 42W and 49W.

A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean Sea along 62W,
south of 14N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection
is noted in the SE Caribbean.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea along 77W, south
of 14N, and moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is present near the wave axis over
NW Colombia and eastern Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 08N20W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N20W to 06N31W and to 05N43W and then
from 05N45W to 08N59W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection
is evident from 02N to 11N and east 37W. Similar convection seen
from 05N to 11N and between 49W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, resulting
in fairly tranquil weather conditions, moderate or weaker winds
and slight seas. Hazy conditions persist in the western Gulf and
Bay of Campeche waters due to agricultural fires in southern
Mexico and western Central America. Observation sites continue to
report lower visibilities along the Bay of Campeche coast.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle
to moderate winds most of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh S
to SE winds are forecast to develop over the E half of the basin
Wed night into Thu night as the pressure gradient tightens between
surface ridging over the SW N Atlantic and a developing low over
the central Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, hazy conditions due to
agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue
for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to
around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy
rainfall in the NW Caribbean.

Broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic
extends into the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions outside of the NW Caribbean. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in northern South
America result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are occurring
in the north-central, eastern and NW Caribbean. Light to gentle
winds and slight seas are found in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a mid to upper level trough will support showers and
thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean through Sun evening, including
Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. A second upper level trough is forecast
to amplify and extend this shower and tstms activity over the NW
Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh trades
will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean through the
forecast period, except locally strong winds pulsing tonight as
well as Mon through Wed nights. Moderate to fresh SE winds are
forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy
rainfall over the western Atlantic.

A broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic
dominates the tropical Atlantic, sustaining moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds south of 20N and west of 35W. Seas in these
waters are 4-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds and
seas of 4-6 ft are noted from 15N to 22N and east of 25W. Elsewhere
in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a deep layer trough will support
showers and tstms over the Bahamas offshore waters through Sun
evening. A stationary front along northern Florida will approach
the far NW waters Sun and then lift north of the area Mon evening
as high pressure builds back in across the area. Moderate to fresh
S to SW winds will develop over the NE Florida offshore waters
Sun evening as the pressure gradient tightens between the
subtropical ridge and the front. These winds will continue to
affect the offshore waters N of 27N W of 65W through Wed morning
as a cold front moves across the waters N of the area Tue morning
before lifting farther north Wed morning.

$$
Delgado