603
AXNT20 KNHC 121017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jun 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over some sections of the northwestern Caribbean,
the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and over South Florida:
Abundant tropical moisture is surging northward from the western
Caribbean, across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, also over South
Florida and across the adjacent western Atlantic waters. This
moisture is practically to the southeast of a surface trough that
extends from north-central Florida to a broad and elongated area
of low pressure (Invest AL90) that is near the west-central
Florida coast. A surface trough continues from this area of low
pressure southwestward to near the northeast tip of the Yucatan
Peninsula. In addition, upper-level diffluent flow present across
the region is helping to support clusters of disorganized
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that extend from
just west of the western tip of Cuba, northeastward across the far
southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the lower Straits of Florida to
along and inland the central coast of Cuba and north from there to
over parts of South Florida. Recently developed scattered showers
and thunderstorms quickly moving eastward are inland the Florida
peninsula from 26N to 29N between the east coast and 82W. This
activity also reaches into the western Atlantic west of 75W. Cloud
to surface lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas and low
visibility are ongoing within this convective activity over these
areas. The shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
continue across the region through Fri. Mariners transiting these
regions should exercise caution. Please refer to bulletins and
forecasts from your local weather forecast offices for specific
local information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W from
03N to 15N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous strong
convection exists from 05N to 10N between the wave and 30W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from 02N
to 15N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 150 nm west of the wave from 04N
to 10N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 69W south of
15N moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are near the northern tip of the wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 78W south of
15N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is becoming ill
defined as it encounters low to middle-level southeast wind flow
surging into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms within 180 nm west of the wave from 11N to 14N are
moving northwest. Similar activity is from 13N to 18N between
80W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal plains border of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau southwestward to 10N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N21W to 05N31W and from 05N35W to 04N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of
the ITCZ between 42W and 48W. Similar activity is northwest of
the ITCZ from 05N to 08N between 51W-56W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
heavy rainfall over the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front extends from northeast FLorida to Florida coast
at 30N84W, where it transitions to a stationary front to
southeastern Louisiana and westward from there to inland Texas
near Houston/Galveston area. Elsewhere, a trough extends from
northern Florida south-southwestward to the broad and elongated
area of low pressure described above under Special Features. A
1008 mb low, part of this area, is analyzed just southwest of
Sarasota, Florida. A trough continues from the low southwestward
to 25N84W and to the northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen over the far
southeastern Gulf waters south of 24N and between 83W and 86W,
including the northern Yucatan Channel and inland western Cuba
between 83W and 85W. Scattered to broken low clouds in cyclonic
fashion, with drizzle and light rain are present with the Special
Features low pressure from 27N to 29N east of 84W to inland the
Florida coast near 82W. Gentle to moderate winds are across the
basin, except for moderate to fresh southeast to south winds
between the western tip of Cuba and the northeast part of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are in the range of 2 to 4 ft, except for
slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft over the NE and southeastern
Gulf areas.

Hazy conditions are over the SW Gulf due to ongoing agricultural
fires are in Mexico.

For the forecast, the broad and elongated area of low pressure
near the west-central coast of Florida that is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms has moved little
over the past few hours. It is expected to move northeastward
across Florida and move offshore of the U.S. southeastern coast
within the next day or so. As a result, unsettled weather in the
form of numerous showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds will
persist over the southeastern Gulf waters through Fri night as a
trough lingers over the eastern Gulf. Hazy conditions due to
agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to affect mainly the SW
Gulf through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
heavy rainfall that is over some sections of the northwestern
Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure, lower
pressures in the deep tropics, and the trough of low pressure
across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is resulting in fresh to
strong east to southeast winds over the east and central sections
of the basin, and moderate to fresh southeast to south winds
over the northwest part of the sea. Seas range from 7 to 9 ft
over the central Caribbean to 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are over some areas of the northwestern
Caribbean and from just south of central Cuba to near 18N.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere west of about
80W.

For the forecast, high pressure located NE of the area combined
with the Colombian low and the passage of tropical waves will
support fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean
through Thu night. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected
over the northwestern Caribbean likely through Fri as a trough of
low pressure remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue
across portions of the northwestern Caribbean through the rest of
the week as a surge of tropical moisture persists across the
region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from low pressure of 1012 mb that is
north of the area near 32N76W southwestward to 31N80W and to
inland northern Florida. Meanwhile, unsettled weather in the
form of numerous showers and thunderstorms, with locally gusty
winds and higher seas, are over most of the western part of the
forecast waters as well as inland some sections of central and
South Florida and Straits of Florida as upper-level disturbances
continue to move from W to E along and near the stationary front
in combination with additional moisture being channeled eastward
across the Florida peninsula from the broad and elongated area of
low pressure that is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the
west-central coast of Florida. A surface trough supported by an
upper-level low is analyzed from near 29N32W to 20N46W. Overcast
mostly mid-level clouds with embedded isolated showers are noted
from 20N to 29N between 40W and 49W and from 25N to 28N between
20W and 40W. A weak trough is along 52W/53W from 10N to 23N. No
significant convection is noted with the trough. Another trough
extends from just north of the area near 32N61W to 23N55W.
Scattered to broken low clouds, with possible scattered showers,
are seen from 27N to 31N between 54W and 59W. A 1020 mb high
center is near 29N63W.

Strong high pressure of 1031 mb located well north of the
discussion area in the vicinity of the Azores has an associated
ridge that reaches southwestward to the central Bahamas. The
pressure gradient between this ridge, the 1012 mb low just north
of the area and the stationary front off the southeastern U.S.
coast supports fresh to strong south to southwest winds north of
27N between 75W and 79W. Seas over these waters are 4 to 7 ft. The
remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of
the gradient related to the 1031 mb Azores high, which is
supporting mainly fresh northeast winds between the coast of W
Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. South of the ridge, moderate to
locally fresh trade winds are over the tropical Atlantic waters,
where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Saharan Air dominates the lower to
middle atmosphere across the Atlantic from about 10N to 20N and
roughly between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, expect little change to the unsettled
weather conditions through the end of the week as a broad and
elongated area of low pressure near the west-central coast of
Florida continues to contribute to the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms by sending additional moisture east-northeastward to
the offshore waters around the NW Bahamas and northward from
there. The low pressure is expected to move northeastward across
Florida and move offshore of the U.S. southeastern coast within
the next day or so. Although upper-level winds are expected to be
only marginally conducive, some slow development is possible while
the system moves offshore of the U.S. southeastern coast. A
trough may linger from near the NW Bahamas to near 31N75W from
mid-week through Fri night. Fresh to strong southerly winds are
expected over the western Atlantic ahead of this system during the
next couple of days.

$$
Aguirre