176
AXNT20 KNHC 111647
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jun 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1647 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SE Gulf of Mexico:
Abundant tropical moisture surging northward across the western
Caribbean, combined with middle to upper-level diffluent flow, and
a trough of low pressure over the SE Gulf continues, to support
the development of showers and thunderstorms in the far NW
Caribbean Sea (N of 20N west of 85W), SE Gulf of Mexico, including
the Florida Straits. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds,
rough seas and low visibility are likely ongoing within this
convective activity over these areas. This convection will
continue through Fri. Mariners transiting these regions should
exercise caution. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from
your local weather forecast offices for detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic extends from 02N to 17N
with axis near 28W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is depicted from 5.5N to 7.5N between 25W and
29W.

A tropical wave is moving across the E Caribbean S of 13N with
axis near 63W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing over the SE Caribbean S of 14N between
the Lesser Antilles and 66W.

A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean Sea along 75W,
south of 14N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is S of 14N between 74W and 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 09N18W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N18W to 07N25W and from 06N30W to 08N55W.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 05.5N to 08N
between 15W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from
01.5N to 10N between 30W and 57W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
heavy rainfall in the SE Gulf of Mexico.

Light concentration of smoke continue over the western Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche, due to ongoing agricultural fires,
creating hazy conditions. A trough of low pressure over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf including the Straits
of Florida. Aside the shower activity, moderate to fresh SE to S winds
are ongoing over that region along with moderate seas. Light to
gentle variable winds and slight seas are ongoing elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned trough of low pressure is
expected to move northeastward across Florida during the next day
or so and offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast later this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be generally unfavorable,
although some slow development is possible when the system is
offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast. Fresh to locally strong
southerly winds are expected today over the SE Gulf on the E side
of the trough axis. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over
Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next
couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times,
mainly over the far western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
heavy rainfall in the NW Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and associated
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in fresh to
strong trade winds over the central and south central basin and
moderate to fresh E to SE winds elsewhere. Seas 7-8 ft over the
central Caribbean and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure located NE of the area combined
with the Colombian low and the passage of tropical waves will
support fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean
through Thu night. Moderate to fresh SE winds are expected over
the NW Caribbean likely through Fri as a trough of low pressure
persists over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue across portions
of the NW Caribbean this work-week as a surge of tropical
moisture persists across the region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over S Florida, the FLorida Keys, as well as N of 24N between 76W
and 80W. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda subtropical
ridge and a stationary front off the SE United States support
moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds north of 27N and west of
68W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. The remainder subtropical
Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores high, which is
supporting mainly fresh NE winds between the coast of W Africa and
the Cape Verde Islands. Moderate to fresh trades are ongoing in
the tropical central Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned trough of low
pressure is expected to move northeastward across Florida during
the next day or so and offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast later
this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally
unfavorable, although some slow development is possible when the
system is offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are expected over the western Atlantic ahead of
this system over the next couple of days.

$$
KRV