020
AXNT20 KNHC 301718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu May 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W from
03N to 12N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 08N between
17W and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W from 02N
to 11N, moving westward 15-20 kt. Broken to overcast multilayer
clouds with isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted
mainly behind the wave axis from 03N to 08N between 34W and 39W.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along
65W/66W extending southward into central Venezuela where the wave
is helping to induce some convective activity. It is moving
westward at 15 kt. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds with
embedded scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are E of the
wave axis, affecting the Windward Islands.

A tropical wave is along 88W south of 19N. The wave axis extends
across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and crosses Belize, Honduras
and El Salvador. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Most of the
convective activity related to this wave is currently noted over
the eastern Pacific region.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and extends to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from
07N21W to 04N35W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from
03N to 07N between 13W and 30W. Similar convective activity is
seen S of 06N between 40W and 50W, and within 90-120 nm of the
coast of South-America between 50W and 58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters while a cold
front is clipping N Florida and the Florida Panhandle generating
some shower activity. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are over the north-central Gulf ahead of the front. As of 15Z, the
cold front extends across central Florida and the NE Gulf to near
SE Louisiana. Hazy conditions persist over the western Gulf due
to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico.

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of moderate to
fresh E to SE across the waters across the waters N of 24N and W
of 92W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are elsewhere west of
90W, while light to gentle winds are east of 90W. Seas are 2 to 4
ft over the western half of the Gulf, and 1 to 2 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, relatively weak surface ridging will continue
across the area into early next week. As a result, winds will
pulse moderate to fresh during the evenings through the weekend.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the northern and
western portions of the Yucatan peninsula during the late
afternoons and at night through Sun. Haze west of 90W due to
agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue
for at least the next couple of days reducing visibility at times.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large area of showers and thunderstorms persists over the SW
Caribbean, covering mainly the waters S of 14N and W of 75W. This
activity is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds
and at the same time be accompanied by frequent lightning. Please
refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office
for the latest information on this active weather. A diffluent
pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity, that
is now affecting the Caribbean plains of Nicaragua and the Atlantic
coast of Costa Rica. Southwesterly flow aloft continues to transport
abundant tropical moisture from Guatemala and Belize across the
western Caribbean Sea reaching the Cayman Islands and eastern
Cuba. The atmospheric environment will remain very unstable and
conducive for locally heavy rain to affect some areas of the
Greater Antilles and the SW Caribbean. Hazy conditions continue to
affect the Gulf of Honduras due to persistent agricultural fires
in Central America. The haze may be reducing the visibility to
at times, especially along the northern coast of Honduras and the
Bay Islands.

Recent scatterometer data shows fresh to strong trade winds across
the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
elsewhere across the basin, except for light to gentle winds over
the northwestern and north-central sections. Seas are 5 to 7 ft
across the south-central and SW parts of the basin, 3 to 5 ft S of
18N, and 1 to 3 ft N of 18N, including the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and low pressure near Colombia will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Fri. The pressure
gradient will increase Sat behind a tropical wave that is
currently exiting the Caribbean. This will lead to fresh to strong
trade winds across the central basin Sat through early Mon. Winds
will slightly diminish by early next week. Smoke from agricultural
fires over Central America is causing reduced visibilities over
portions of the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is E of Florida and extends from 31N74W to the NW
Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of
the trough. Farther E, another area of showers with embedded
thunderstorms is noted covering the waters from 25N to 28N between
70W and 75W. A second surface trough is analyzed from 28N52W to
21N60W. Recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of this
trough, with light winds on either side of it. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are near the trough. A cold front has entered
the forecast waters and extends from 31N30W to 28N35W to 29N52W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are associated with the frontal
boundary. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds follow the front with
seas of 5 to 7 ft. S of the front to about 20N, mainly light to
gentle winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft based on altimeter
data. Weak high pressure is present generally elsewhere across the
basin with a 1021 mb center near 25N30W. Across the tropical
Atlantic, moderate to fresh trades are observed on satellite
derived wind data, with an area of fresh to locally strong N winds
between Cabo Verde Islands and the coast of W Africa. Seas are
generally 5 to 7 ft over these waters.

For the forecast, relatively weak surface ridging over the region
is allowing for moderate or lighter winds to exist over the
forecast waters. A cold front pushing off the NE Florida coast
will move across the western half of the area through Fri night,
and across the remainder of the forecast waters N of 20N through
late Mon. High pressure building in behind the front will tighten
the pressure gradient across the region, bringing moderate to
fresh winds across waters north of 20N. Moderate seas can also be
expected with these winds. Conditions will slightly improve by
early next week north of 27N.

$$
GR