252
AXNT20 KNHC 051805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jun 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1805 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HEAVY RAINFALL IN HISPANIOLA, IN JAMAICA, AND IN EASTERN CUBA:

A persistent western Caribbean Sea upper level trough will
continue to support the significant rainshowers through Friday.
The threats to land are: dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and
gusty winds, through Friday. It is possible that heavy rain may
lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
Hispaniola where the ground remains saturated from earlier recent
heavy rain events. Global models show that the most significant
precipitation will be in the north central sections of the Dominican
Republic. It is possible also that significant rainfall may reach
eastern Cuba, and central Cuba, where abundant moisture will be
for the next few days. The rainfall for Hispaniola and Cuba will
be influenced heavily by diurnal heating and the local effects.
The heaviest rainfall will occur in the afternoon and evening
hours on each day. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts that
are from your local weather bureau office for more detailed
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W, from 11N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation:
any close precipitation is related to the monsoon trough or to
the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W, from 11N
southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation:
any close precipitation is related to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W, from 14N southward,
moving westward about 10 knots. The wave was re-positioned in
order to agree with the Total Precipitable Water data.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 08N to 12N between 61W and 63W, mostly inland in Venezuela.
Similar precipitation is in Guyana from 04N to 08N between 58W and
61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 07N20W and 06N30W. The ITCZ is along 05N31W
04N41W, and along 03N/04N between 44W and 50W. Precipitation:
disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from
10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1017 mb
31N72W high pressure center, into the central Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate to fresh SE winds, locally strong, and moderate seas,
are west of 89W. Gentle to moderate winds, and 1 foot to 3 feet
seas, are elsewhere. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in
southern Mexico persist in most of the western Gulf. It is
possible that the haze may reduce visibilities to 1 to 3 nm,
particularly in the SW and west central Gulf.

Moderate seas are in the western half of the area. The sea
heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet in the Texas coastal waters.
Slight seas are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Mostly fresh to
some strong SE winds are from 90W westward. Moderate or slower
winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

A weak Atlantic ridge extends SW into the NE Gulf, and will
dominate the basin through the next several days. This pattern
will support generally moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds in
the western Gulf, fresh to occasionally strong near the Yucatan
Peninsula and in the NW Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the
eastern Gulf through early Thu. On Thu, the ridge will weaken,
allowing for winds to diminish somewhat into the weekend. Hazy
conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and
Mexico will continue for the next couple of days, reducing
visibility to around 1 to 3 nm at times, mainly over the western
half of the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
the heavy rainfall event in Hispaniola, in Jamaica, and in the
eastern sections of Cuba.

Cyclonic wind flow is covering much of the area that is from 16N/
17N northward, with a persistent and deep layer trough. A surface
trough currently is in the Windward Passage. Precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the area of the
deep layer cyclonic wind flow.

Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are in the NE half of the
basin. Gentle to moderate winds are in the rest of the area.
Mostly moderate to slightly rough seas are between 64W and 73W.
Mostly moderate to some slight seas are in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 05/1200 UTC, are: 0.75 in Trinidad; 0.64 in Montego Bay in
Jamaica; 0.27 in Freeport in the Bahamas; 0.26 in Guadeloupe;
0.14 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras; 0.11 in Kingston in Jamaica; 0.02
in Nassau in the Bahamas. This information is from the Pan
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

The monsoon trough is along 12N70W near NW Venezuela, beyond NE
Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely scattered to isolated strong is
15N southward from 70W westward.

Weak high pressure extends across the western Atlantic along 31N.
A deep layered upper-level trough from the W Atlantic to the
north-central Caribbean will shift E-NE across the Atlantic, with
associated showers and thunderstorms shifting from the north-
central basin across the NE Caribbean through Thu. Southeast trade
winds generally prevail across the entire basin today. Fresh to
locally strong trade winds will return to southeast portions of
the basin Thu through Fri then shift into south central portions
through the weekend, as high pressure builds across the western
Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N31W to 29N36W 30N40W. A warm front
continues from 30N40W to a 1009 mb 32N51W low pressure center.
A surface trough continues from the 1009 mb low pressure center,
to a 1013 mb 26N59W low pressure center, to 21N70W, to the
Windward Passage. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 17N northward, including in the Caribbean
Sea, between 43W in the Atlantic Ocean to 77W in the Atlantic
Ocean near the Bahamas.

Mostly moderate seas cover the entire area in general. The
comparatively highest sea heights, range from 4 feet to 6 feet.
Some smaller areas of sea heights of 4 feet or less are mixed
into the areas of predominantly moderate seas. Fresh NE winds are
to the southeast of 26N21W 20N36W 19N60W. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are between 60W and 70W, to the south of the
28N60W 25N70W-Windward Passage surface trough. Moderate or slower
winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A frontal trough extends from 27.5N55W to near the Windward
Passage. A deep-layered upper trough across the W Atlantic and
into the north-central Caribbean will shift E-NE across the region
through Thu, and maintain active thunderstorms between 55W and
70W that will shift E and NE ahead of the trough. Expect fresh to
strong SW winds east of the trough and N of 22N through late
afternoon. Weak high pressure will begin to build across the basin
in the wake of the trough, then shift slowly E-NE Thu through Fri
night. A weak front will move into the far NW waters Sat and
stall there Sun.

$$
mt/ss