520
AXNT20 KNHC 120505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jul 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0505 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean along
23W, south of 18N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. A 1013 mb low pres
is analyzed along the tropical wave near 12N23W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 06N to 14N and between 23W
and 32W.

Another tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean
along 38W, south of 18N, moving west around 5-10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 03N to 12N and between 32W and
44W.

A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Caribbean along 66W,
south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant
convection is noted over the water, but the wave is enhancing the
showers and thunderstorms over Venezuela.

A tropical wave is analyzed in the western Caribbean along 82W,
south of 18N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted in the SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 12N23W and
to 07N45W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N45W to 06N55W. For
information on the convection near the monsoon trough and ITCZ,
please see the Tropical Waves section.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the SE
Gulf waters and Florida Straits and similar convection is noted in
the Bay of Campeche. The rest of the basin is under a weak high
pressure system that supports moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds
and moderate seas south of a line from southern Florida to SW
Louisiana. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are
prevalent under the ridge.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to
strong NE to E winds will pulse along the Yucatan Peninsula each
afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and
shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. A surface
trough is expected to develop across Florida by Mon and drift
westward across the eastern Gulf Tue through Wed, accompanied by
active weather.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the islands forces
fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas
across much of the central and eastern Caribbean. The strongest
winds are found off northern Colombia according to a recent
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in the area are peaking near 10
ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
evident in the western Caribbean, south of 20N. Elsewhere, light
to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. No significant
convection is seen on satellite imagery outside of the storm
activity described in the Tropical Waves section.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda high
and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to
strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean
through the forecast period. Fresh east winds are expected across
the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, into early next week. These
winds are expected to reach strong speeds Sun night, and again
Mon night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected
in the eastern Caribbean through the weekend while gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the weather conditions
across the basin. Moderate to fresh E-SE trade winds are found
between the Bahamas and Cuba and fresh to strong off the coast of
northern Hispaniola as confirmed by a recent scatterometer
satellite pass. Seas to 7 ft are noted off northern Hispaniola.
Meanwhile, the tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned
ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa result in fresh to near
gale NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas north of 20N and
east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High extends a
ridge west-southwestward across the northern Bahamas and central
Florida tonight. The ridge will gradually shift eastward and
weaken through the upcoming weekend. The related pressure gradient
will support gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh to
locally strong E to SE winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola
through Sat. Winds and seas will diminish Sun through early Mon as
the ridge shifts eastward, then increase modestly Tue as high
pressure shifts westward to near 60W.

$$
Delgado