063
AXNT20 KNHC 251649
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat May 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 60W from 14N southward, moving westward
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 14N
between 57W and 62W. The analyzed position of the tropical wave is
supported by Upper Air Sounding data from Barbados, and Trinidad
and Tobago. Satellite scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong
SE winds east of the wave axis to 57W. The tropical wave will
cross the Windward Islands today, bringing gusty winds, showers,
and tstorms.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
08N16W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 09N
between 20W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails due to high pressure over the SE US
and northeast of the Bahamas. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 3-5
ft seas are analyzed west of 90W. Light to gentle SE to S winds
and 1-3 ft seas are analyzed east of 90W. Hazy conditions across
most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche continue due to
agricultural fires in Mexico; visibilities may be restricted in
these waters.

For the forecast, high pressure over the region will begin to
shift east-southeastward starting Sun. Moderate to locally fresh
southeast winds over the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate
southeast to south winds elsewhere are expected to continue
through the rest of the weekend, except for winds becoming light
and variable over most of the eastern Gulf through early next
week. A cold front will move across the NE Gulf Tue through Wed,
followed by gentle to moderate west to northwest winds. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse near the northern and western Yucatan
Peninsula during the late afternoons and at night through the
period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient provides for light to gentle trades
across the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where trades are
pulsing to fresh speeds. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin.
Scattered moderate convection is in the southern Caribbean from
10N to 13N between the coast of Colombia and 80W. An upper level
trough persisting across the basin east of the Windward Passage
may enhance any convection that develops today, including in
southern Hispaniola. Dense smoke continues to limit visibilities
in the Gulf of Honduras, as agricultural burning continues in the
region.

For the forecast, generally gentle trade winds are expected
across the basin, except for fresh to strong winds pulsing in the
Gulf of Honduras at night through Tue night. Moderate to fresh
trade winds are forecast to develop over the central Caribbean Mon
through Wed. A tropical wave currently in the Tropical N Atlantic
is near 59W south of 15N. The wave will cross the Windward
Islands this afternoon and move into the far eastern Caribbean
this evening and tonight. It will move across the rest of the
eastern Caribbean Sun through Mon, then become ill-defined as it
approaches the central Caribbean Mon night and Tue. Gusty winds
and active weather are expected with the wave. Smoke due to
agricultural fires in Central America may persist across the Gulf
of Honduras over the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1012 mb low pressure is near 27.6N66W. A trough extends from the
low northeast to 31N62W. Scattered moderate convection is north of
29N between 60W and 64W. 1015 mb high pressure is centered just
northeast of the Bahamas. Gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft
seas prevail across most of the basin. NE winds are fresh from 16N
to 24N east of 22W near the coast of Africa. In the far W Atlantic
near the Bahamas, Florida, Cuba, and the Straits of Florida, seas
are 2-4 ft with light and variable winds.

For the forecast W of 55W, the low will continue to move
generally east-northeastward through Sun evening as it weakens
further and becomes absorbed by a frontal boundary. Otherwise,
relatively weak high pressure will remain over the region for the
next few days. The associated gradient will support moderate winds
and seas north of the Bahamas and off northeast Florida by Mon
night as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front
that is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Mon
night, move across the waters east of northern Florida early on
Tue, reach from near 31N79W to east-central Florida early on Wed
and from near 31N78W to 29N79W and stationary to east- central
Florida Wed night.

$$
Mahoney