767
AXNT20 KNHC 241652
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri May 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep-layered trough
extending southwestward from the Windward Passage to near Costa
Rica/Panama continues to lift northeastward across eastern
Hispaniola. With both divergent winds aloft and abundant moisture
still over Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands,
sporadic deep convection are expected near these locations
through today. Residents in the above locations should remain
alert for significant rainfall and potential flash flooding.
Please refer to your local weather office for more specific
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located near 54W, from 13N southward, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 05N to 09N between 52W and 60W, including over French
Guiana, Suriname, and Guyana.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W, then curves
southwestward to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to
05N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 10N between
40W and 50W, and within 60 nm of the remainder of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging across the Gulf of Mexico is driven by 1016 mb high
pressure centered over Florida. SE winds are gentle to moderate
in the waters west of 90W, with light to gentle SE winds east of
90W. Seas are 3-5 ft west of 90W, and 1-3 ft east of 90W. In the
Bay of Campeche, winds may locally gust to fresh speeds with seas
to 6 ft. The latest surface observations confirm reduced
visibilities and hazy conditions across the southwest Gulf, due
to smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico.

For the forecast, hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in
Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of
Campeche. High pressure will remain NE of the basin through the
end of the week, with moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds
across the waters W of 90W, and gentle to moderate winds E of 90W.
Winds will become SE to S Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about a Significant
Rainfall Event impacting Hispaniola.

Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Windward and Mona
Passage, and in the south-central Caribbean within 120 nm of the
coast of Colombia. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicates
fresh trades in the Gulf of Honduras, where smoke from
agricultural fires in Honduras continues to reduce visibilities
to 3 nm. Please exercise caution in areas of dense smoke.
Elsewhere, trades are light to gentle across the basin with seas
of 3-5 ft. In the far SE Caribbean, some moderate trades were
detected by scatterometer this morning.

For the forecast, the strong deep-layer trough across the
Caribbean from eastern Cuba to northern Costa Rica will lift NE
through late Sat. This feature will continue to support active
weather across the central portions of the basin, which will
gradually shift NE and into the Atlantic through tonight. A broad
and weak trough will prevail across the north-central Caribbean
through Sat, yielding moderate trade winds across the E portions
and moderate to fresh winds across NW portions of the basin. Smoke
due to agricultural fires in Central America may persist across
the Gulf of Honduras today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The deep-layered trough responsible for heavy rainfall across
Hispaniola continues to move north and west away from the Greater
Antilles. At the surface, 1013 mb low pressure is centered near
23N72W, along a surface trough extending from 28N66W to the low to
central Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N to
28N between 62W and 72W. Fresh to strong winds are along the
trough, with 5-7 ft seas from 21N to 28N between 63W and 71W.
Elsewhere, 1022 mb high pressure is just northwest of the Canary
Islands, providing for moderate to locally fresh trades across the
basin. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, another low is expected to form
along the aforementioned surface trough about halfway between
Bermuda and Hispaniola today. Although environmental conditions
are not conducive, some slight subtropical or tropical development
is possible over the next couple of days while the system moves
northeastward. Farther west, weak high pressure will build between
Bermuda and the central Bahamas Sat into Sun following the low
pressure. Looking ahead, moderate winds and seas are possible
north of the Bahamas and off northeast Florida by Mon night as the
high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front expected to
move off the southeast U.S. coast by mid-week.

$$
Mahoney