405
AXNT20 KNHC 221756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep layered trough
currently digging southward over the western Caribbean will lift
slowly northeastward across central Caribbean Thu through Fri.
This feature is expected to combine with abundant tropical
moisture to support widespread deep convection across eastern
Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico through Fri. Latest
computer model guidance suggests the highest rainfall
accumulations to be across southern Hispaniola today and Thu.
Residents in all the above locations should remain alert for
significant rainfall and potential flash flooding. Please refer to
your local weather office for more specific information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
The first tropical wave of the upcoming hurricane season is
analyzed this morning from 03N to 13N along 38W. According to
satellite Hovmoller data this wave is moving at 10-15 kt. A
scatterometer pass and satellite derived wind data at 700 mb
clearly show the wind shift associated with this wave, which is
supporting scattered moderate convection from 08N to 13N between
31W and 42W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast
near 08N13W then curves southwestward to 05N20W to 05N26W. The
ITCZ continues westward from 05N26W across 04N38W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave near 04N40W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 12W and 22W, and from
02N to 06N between 27W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Fair and hazy skies prevail across the entire Gulf this morning,
as smoke from agricultural fires across Mexico and Central America
continues to disperse across the basin, limiting visibility to 4
and 6 nm across large portions of the western and central Gulf. A
weak surface ridge extends from the SE U.S. SW into the E Gulf
while lower pressures dominates the westen half of the basin.
This pressure pattern is producing gentle to moderate E to SE
winds across the basin E of 90W, and moderate to locally fresh SE
winds across the waters W of 90W per recent scatterometer data.
Seas are moderate to 5 ft to the W of 90W and slight elsewhere.

For the forecast, hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in
Mexico will continue across all but NE portions of the Gulf
through tonight. High pressure will remain NE of the basin through
the end of the week, producing moderate to locally fresh E to SE
winds across the waters W of 90W, and gentle to moderate winds E
of 90W. Winds will become SE to S Thu night through Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about the Significant
Rainfall Event.

A sharp mid to upper-level trough extends from the western
Atlantic along 74W S-SW across Cuba to Costa Rica and Panama.
This feature aloft support a surface trough that extends from
13N74W across the Windward Passage to the southern Bahamas.
Diffluent flow associated with the trough aloft and abundant
moisture across the central Caribbean is generating widespread
numerous showers and scattered tstms over Panama and Costa Rica
adjacent waters, the central basin, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and E
Cuba, including the Windward and Mona Passages.

Fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are present
at the north-central basin N of 15N with gusty winds in the areas
of strong tstsms per recent scatterometer and GLM data. Moderate
to fresh ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen across the eastern
basin. Gentle to moderate ESE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail
in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, smoke
due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across the
Gulf of Honduras, and spreads NW to the Yucatan coast causing
reduced visibilities down to 3 to 5 nm.

For the forecast, the deep layer trough will continue to dig
southward across the western Caribbean through tonight, then lift
out to the NE Thu through Sat. This feature will support active
weather across the central portions of the basin, which will
gradually shift NE and into the Atlc through Fri. Fresh to strong
E to SE winds in the central Caribbean will shift northeastward
tonight through Thu while diminishing to mostly fresh speeds. A
broad and weak trough will prevail across the north-central
Caribbean Thu night through Sat, yielding moderate trade winds
across the E portions and moderate to fresh winds across NW
portions of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Waves Section for information on the first
tropical wave of the upcoming hurricane season.

A sharp mid to upper-level trough extends from 31N74W southward
across the northwest Bahamas across Cuba into the W Caribbean. A
trough extends from 31N72W to 1014 mb low pressure near 28N75W
then continues to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms prevail across the western Atlantic between the
trough and 62W, supported by the deep layered upper trough.

A weak pressure gradient across the SW N Atlantic waters, continue
to support light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate
seas W of 65W while moderate to locally fresh SE winds are ongoing
S of 24N between 36W and 65W. The remainder central and eastern
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface
ridge that is supporting light to gentle variable winds N of 24N,
except for moderate to fresh NE winds from the W coast of Africa
to 30W. In the tropics, moderate to fresh N-NE winds are W and E
of the Cape Verde Islands along with seas to 9 ft. Moderate to
locally fresh trades are across the remainder tropics E of the
Lesser Antilles along with moderate seas to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough will drift SE and
weaken through tonight. Another trough across the Windward Passage
and SE Bahamas will drift eastward through Thu night. Weak low
pressure is expected to develop along the trough just N of
Hispaniola Thu night and shift N-NE through Sat night, accompanied
by moderate to fresh winds and active weather.

$$
Ramos