488
AXNT20 KNHC 032101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jun 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba:
A persistent upper-level trough over the western Caribbean will
sustain a diffluent pattern aloft across the area through Friday.
This will support the generation of strong showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous lightning, heavy
rain, and gusty winds through Friday. The heavy rain may lead to
flash flooding and mudslides. Flooding is also possible in areas
of Hispaniola where the ground remains saturated from recent heavy
rain events. According to the most recent models, Tue afternoon
and Thu afternoon will be the days with the most significant
precipitation over north-central Dominican Republic and NE Haiti.
There are also indications that significant rainfall could occur
over eastern Cuba and the Cayman Islands where abundant moisture
will remain in place. Please refer to products from your local
weather service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from
11N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is
limited near the wave axis.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 11N
southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Convection remains
minimal.

The axis of another Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 12N
southward, and moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted mainly behind the wave axis covering the waters from 05N
to 10N between 40W and 50W, and from 06N to 12N between 50W and
52W.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from
19N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The wave appears
to enhance convection over eastern Dominican Republic and western
Venezuela.

The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from
21N southward, and is quasi-stationary due to interaction with an
upper-level trough. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is
near the southern end of the wave axis over the SW Caribbean, and
this convective activity is affecting the coasts of southern
Nicaragua, Costa Rica and western Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W then continues
westward to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to 06N35W, then
from 06N37W to 06N51W. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is present from
03N to 08N between 24W and 31W, and from 05N to 09N between 40W
and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail W of 90W, with light to gentle winds E of 90W.
Seas W of 90W are in the 4-6 ft range and 2-3 ft E of 90W Haze
due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico
continues across the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche,
reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through
the next several days. This pattern will support generally
moderate to fresh SE winds in the western Gulf, fresh to
occasionally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula, and gentle to
moderate winds in the eastern Gulf. By Thu, the ridge will weaken,
allowing for winds to diminish somewhat. Hazy conditions due to
agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue
for the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 4 nm at
times, mainly over the western half of the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information on
a heavy rainfall event.

Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft are noted E of 71W.
Moderate winds are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range W of 71W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across
the east- central Caribbean through early Tue, with seas building
to near 8 ft. A deep layered upper-level trough from the W
Atlantic to the SW Caribbean will continue to support active
thunderstorms across north-central portions through Tue. As this
feature moves E-NE across the Atlantic, associated weather will
shift across the NE Caribbean Tue evening through Thu. Fresh trade
winds will return to southeast portions of the basin Thu evening
through early Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N43W to 26N54W then becomes stationary
along 26N to the northern Bahamas. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 4-7 ft, are N of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are
noted S of the stationary front to neat 20N. Farther east, high
pressure prevails across the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1022
mb high centered near 27N34W. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high center. Gentle to locally moderate winds
prevail elsewhere. S of 20N, moderate to fresh winds prevail.
Aside from seas mentioned above, seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the above mentioned stationary front
will meander and weaken into a surface trough tonight. A deep-
layered upper trough across the W Atlantic and into the SW
Caribbean will shift E-NE across the region through Thu, and
maintain active thunderstorms E of 70W tonight that will shift E
and NE Tue through Thu. The interaction of the upper trough and
the stationary front is expected to lead to elongated surface low
pressure across NE portions on Tue, and shift NE and out of the
area on Wed. Fresh to strong SW winds are forecast ahead of this
trough/low as it move across these waters. Weak high pressure will
begin to build across the basin Wed then shift slowly E-NE Thu
through Sat.

$$
AL